I. Sabbin Ci gaba a Tsarin EU CBAM

Tsarin Daidaita Iyakokin Carbon na Tarayyar Turai (CBAM) ya shiga "matakin caji" a hukumance a ranar 1 ga Janairu, 2026, wanda ke nuna sauyawa daga sanarwar gudanarwa zuwa cikakken alhakin kuɗi. An fara rufe nau'ikan samfura shida: ƙarfe, siminti, aluminum, takin zamani, wutar lantarki, da hydrogen.

Tun daga shekarar 2026, an yi wasu manyan gyare-gyare ga CBAM:

(1) Farashin Carbon Ya Ci Gaba Da Zama Mai Tsada

A kwata na biyu na 2026, farashin takardar shaidar CBAM ya tsaya cak a kanYuro75.28/ton (kimanin RMB 585/ton), yana ci gaba da kasancewa mai girma. Farawa a 2027, tsarin farashi zai canza daga sanarwar kwata-kwata zuwa ta mako-mako, wanda aka haɗa a ainihin lokaci zuwa farashin share gwanjon EU ETS.

(2) An Rage Ƙimar Da Aka Daɗe Ana Yi

A ranar 31 ga Yuli, 2026, Tarayyar Turai ta fitar da Dokar (EU) ta 2026/1740, wadda ta sake duba ƙimar da ba ta dace ba ta CBAM. Kayayyakin ƙarfe sun ga raguwa mai yawa:

Nau'in Samfura Ƙimar Tsohuwar da ta gabata (tCO)₂/tan) Sabuwar Ƙimar Tsohuwa (tCO)₂/tan) Ragewa

Billets/Semi-final (7207) 8.230 3.169 -61.5%

Baƙin Alade (7201) 7.920 1.660 -79.0%

Karfe Mai Kammalawa (7224) 9.960-10.000 6.110-6.180 -38%

Sabuwar ƙa'idar ta cire ma'aunin maki 10%, 20%, da 30% daga ƙa'idar EU ta 2025/2621 da ta gabata, tana komawa zuwa ma'aunin tsoho daban-daban bisa ga hanyoyin samarwa daban-daban.

(3) Faɗaɗa Faɗin Faɗin Faɗin

A ranar 9 ga Yuli, 2026, Kwamitin Muhalli na Majalisar Tarayyar Turai ya kaɗa ƙuri'a don faɗaɗa ayyukan CBAM daga kayan aiki na asali zuwa kayayyakin da aka gama. A watan Disamba na 2025, Hukumar Tarayyar Turai ta ba da shawarar ƙara kusan kayayyakin ƙarfe da aluminum 180 da ke ƙarƙashin ƙasa, waɗanda suka haɗa da injina, kayayyakin kayan aiki da ƙarfe, abubuwan hawa, kayan gida, da kayan gini. Ana sa ran faɗaɗawar za ta fara aiki a ranar 1 ga Janairu, 2028.

(4) Matakan hana yaɗuwar jini sun ƙara ƙarfi

Sabuwar dokar ta ƙarfafa tanade-tanaden hana yaɗuwar jini, inda ba a sake ɗaukar "ƙarancin sarrafawa" a matsayin hanyar gujewa halal ba. Idan aka gano tsarin yaɗuwar jini, Hukumar tana da ikon amfani da ƙimar hayaki mai yawa daga ƙasar da aka samo asali.

(5) Matsakaicin Keɓewa na Tan 50

A shekarar 2025, Hukumar ta gabatar da ƙa'idar keɓewa daga shigo da kaya na tan 50 a kowace shekara. Bincike ya nuna cewa wannan ƙa'idar za ta keɓe kusan kashi 90% na masu shigo da kaya yayin da har yanzu za ta rufe kusan kashi 99% na hayakin carbon da ya dace.

II. Binciken Tasirin Masana'antar Bututun Karfe

A matsayin samfuran da aka sarrafa da zurfi na ƙarfe, bututun ƙarfe suna fuskantar ƙalubale da yawa a ƙarƙashin tsarin CBAM:

(1) Tasirin Farashin Carbon Kai Tsaye

Ta hanyar amfani da lissafin ƙimar da aka saba, fitar da tan ɗaya na kayayyakin ƙarfe da aka rufe da CBAM na iya haifar da ƙarin farashin carbon RMB 130 zuwa 4,670. Duk da cewa masu shigo da kayayyaki daga Tarayyar Turai ne ke siyan takaddun shaida na CBAM kuma suka miƙa su, masu shigo da kayayyaki galibi suna mayar da wani ɓangare ko duk waɗannan kuɗaɗen ga masu samar da kayayyaki na China ta hanyar rage farashi ko kuma yarjejeniyar raba farashin carbon.

Mafi yawan masana'antar ƙarfe da ake samarwa a China ita ce injin samar da iskar oxygen mai ƙarfi (BF-BOF), wanda ke samar da CO2.₂hayakin da ya kai kimanin 2.0–Tan 2.2 a kowace tan na ƙarfe—mafi girma fiye da hanyar wutar lantarki ta EU (EAF) a 0.4–Tan 0.6. Dangane da farkon farashin carbon na EU na 2026Yuro88/ton, bayan an rage dukkan alawus-alawus kyauta nan da shekarar 2034, farashin CBAM na fitar da ƙarfe zuwa EU zai iya ƙaruwa ta hanyarYuro140–160 a kowace tan.

(2) Tasirin Faɗaɗawa–An haɗa kai tsaye da bututun ƙarfe

A da, kayayyakin sarrafa ƙarfe kamar bututu na iya jin daɗin ɗan kariya ta hanyar rashin rarraba su a matsayin "kayayyaki na asali." Duk da haka, yayin da CBAM ta faɗaɗa zuwa samfuran da ke amfani da ƙarfe da aluminum, bututun ƙarfe, abubuwan ƙarfe na tsari, da bututun ƙarfe za a haɗa su kai tsaye cikin tsarin ƙa'ida.

Yana da mahimmanci a fayyace: Faɗaɗar CBAM ba ta haraji ga dukkan kayan da aka gama ba, a'a, tana ƙididdige hayakin ƙarfe da aluminum da ke cikin samfurin. Ga bututun ƙarfe, CBAM tana ƙididdige carbon da aka saka kawai na ƙarfen da aka cinye a cikin samar da bututu.—Haɗarin da ke fitowa daga sarrafawa da masana'antu ba su cikin ikon yin hakan.

(3) Tara Kudaden Haraji Biyu da Kudaden Carbon

Sabbin ƙa'idojin shigo da ƙarfe daga Tarayyar Turai waɗanda suka fara aiki a watan Yulin 2026 sun rage ƙa'idodin shigo da ƙarfe ba tare da haraji ba da kusan kashi 47% kuma sun ninka harajin shigo da kaya da ya wuce kima daga kashi 25% zuwa 50%. Kuɗin carbon da shingayen haraji yanzu suna haifar da wani babban tasiri, wanda hakan ke ƙara yawan nauyin haraji akan fitar da bututun ƙarfe.

(4) Matsakaicin Biyayya Mai Girma

A ƙarƙashin cikakken aiwatar da CBAM, masu fitar da kayayyaki dole ne su bi ƙa'idodin bayar da rahoton bayanai game da hayakin carbon, gami da lissafin sawun carbon na samfura, tabbatar da bayanai na ɓangare na uku, da kuma gabatar da rahoton bin ƙa'ida. Kamfanonin ƙarfe na China a halin yanzu suna fuskantar gibi a cikin ƙa'idodin auna carbon da tsarin bin diddigin bayanai, wanda ke haifar da haɗarin rashin bin ƙa'ida na ɗan gajeren lokaci.

III. Shawarwari ga Masu Fitar da Bututun Karfe

1. Duba Lambobin CN na Samfura: Duba ko an riga an rufe kayayyakin bututun ƙarfe ɗinku ko kuma za a rufe su a ƙarƙashin tsarin CBAM nan da shekarar 2028.

2. Kafa Tsarin Gudanar da Bayanan Carbon: Gina tsarin sarrafa carbon na dijital daga matakin samfur zuwa matakin sarkar samarwa, ƙirƙirar bayanan bayanai na hayakin carbon na gaske, bayyananne, da kuma waɗanda za a iya gano su.

3. Ba da fifiko ga Rahoton Ƙimar Gaske: Duk da cewa an rage ƙimar da aka saba da ita sosai, har yanzu tana da girma fiye da ainihin matakan fitar da hayaki ga yawancin kamfanonin China. Amfani da ƙimar fitar da hayaki na gaske da aka tabbatar zai iya rage farashin harajin carbon sosai. Lura cewa rahoton ƙimar gaske yana buƙatar lissafin ƙwararru da tabbatarwa daga hukumomin ɓangare na uku da aka amince da su.

4. Gudanar da Sauyin Ƙananan Carbon: Rage ƙarfin carbon da samfur ke samu a tushen ta hanyar inganta tsarin makamashi, gabatar da kayan da ba su da ƙarancin carbon, da kuma inganta hanyoyin samarwa.

5. Haɗa kai da Masu Shigo da Kaya na Tarayyar Turai: Kafa hanyoyin raba bayanai na carbon tare da masu shigo da kaya na Tarayyar Turai da kuma isar da shirye-shiryen raba farashin carbon a gaba don guje wa jinkirin oda ko asara saboda matsalolin bin ƙa'ida.