Nyob rau hauv txoj cai ntau lawm coj, nyob rau hauv lub Xya hli ntuj kev ua tau zoo ntawm lub nroog steel.As ntawm Lub Xya hli ntuj 31, lub kub coil yav tom ntej tus nqi tshaj 6,100 yuan / tuj cim, rebar yav tom ntej tus nqi nce mus txog 5,800 yuan / ton, thiab cov coke futures nqi nce mus txog 3,000 yuan / ton.Driven nrog rau kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej, piv txwv. mainstream billet nqi mus txog 5270 yuan / ton, uas tau nce ze li ntawm 300 yuan / tuj nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj.Zuag qhia tag nrho, tsis ntev los no nce nyob rau hauv lub ntsiab lub suab ntawm lub nroog steel. Txawm li cas los, nrog rau cov steel export tariff txoj cai dua ushered nyob rau hauv kev hloov, qhov kev nce siab no yuav usher nyob rau hauv ib tug watershed.

Thaum Lub Xya Hli 29, Lub Xeev Pawg Saib Xyuas Kev Ruaj Ntseg tau tshaj tawm tias txij li Lub Yim Hli 1, kev xa tawm tariff ntawm ferrochrome thiab siab purity npua hlau yuav raug tsa kom tsim nyog, thiab cov se xa tawm ntawm 40 feem pua ​​​​thiab 20 feem pua ​​​​yuav raug siv raws li, thaum lub sij hawm xa tawm se rov qab ntawm 23 hom steel khoom suav nrog kev tsheb nqaj hlau yuav raug muab tshem tawm. suav txij lub Tsib Hlis 19, kev hloov kho tag nrho ntawm lub Tsib Hlis 19. steel khoom export se rebate "zero", pib npog tag nrho cov steel export ntau yam.

Thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, nyob rau hauv cov pa roj carbon ncov, carbon nruab nrab lub hom phiaj, loj-scale outflow ntawm steel coj mus rau lub mismatch ntawm mov thiab thov nyob rau hauv lub domestic kev ua lag luam, steel nqi tau nce sharply.Data pom tau hais tias nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no, Tuam Tshoj exported 37.382 lab tons ntawm steel, nce 30.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo.Lub steel xa tawm ib zaug dua cov nqi se los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm lub teb chaws. qhov tseem ceeb los xyuas kom meej qhov kev txiav txim ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev.

Nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb, tej zaum yuav steel export tariff txoj cai hloov nyob rau hauv lub realization ntawm high steel nqi "txias".Tus sau ntseeg hais tias qhov kev hloov ntawm tariff txoj cai tom qab tsaws, tseem yuav ua si ib tug "txias" lub luag hauj lwm nyob rau hauv nce steel nqi, tsis txhob txiav txim tawm qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm high steel nqi poob.Cov laj thawj yog raws li nram no:

Ua ntej, cov hlau xa tawm kom zoo dua yog tsis muaj zog, ntau cov peev txheej steel yuav reflux.The 23 cov khoom xa tawm se rov qab tau raug cais raws li cov khoom muaj nqis ntxiv nyob rau hauv qhov kev hloov kho ntawm txoj cai tariff.Qhov kev hloov kho yuav ua rau tus nqi ntawm cov khoom zoo li no tsis muaj zog, txhawb kev khiav ntawm cov peev txheej rov qab mus rau kev lag luam hauv tsev.

Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj lub ntiaj teb no kev lag luam steel nqi nce ho nqaim, thiab domestic steel nqi feem ntau sawv, domestic thiab thoob ntiaj teb steel nqi sib txawv narrowed.Lub sij hawm no kom tshem tawm cov export se rebate, lub domestic steel export kom zoo dua yuav tsis muaj zog ntxiv, rau cov txiaj ntsig xav tau ntau dua yuav hloov mus rau kev muag khoom hauv tsev.Qhov no yuav txhim kho qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab txhawb cov nqi xa rov qab.

Qhov thib ob, qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm tariff txoj cai no qhia tau hais tias lub teb chaws tsis tau hloov pauv nyob rau hauv cov kev taw qhia dav ntawm kev ruaj ntseg khoom thiab nqi stability.Txawm hais tias kev ua lag luam tau xav tias yuav nce tus nqi xa tawm txoj cai ntawm cov khoom xws li kub yob tsis materialize, tab sis qhov no tsis txhais hais tias tom qab ntawd yuav tsis materialize.

Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev, los ntawm kev hloov ntawm tariff txoj cai los suppress steel exports, kom ruaj khov kev lag luam ntawm domestic steel nqi tau dhau los ua lub hom phiaj ntawm macro txoj cai tsom.Qhov no, steel nqi yog ib qho nyuaj rau rov ua dua thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo raws li sai. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, tariff txoj cai hloov yuav nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam "so" capital tsim "txias" nyhuv, kev lag luam txwv cov nqi lag luam, los yog yuav tawm mus ntxiv cov nqi lag luam. tsis tau nce lub ntsiab xa tawm ntawm cov khoom xa tawm ntawm cov khoom xa tawm, tsis ua tiav lub qhov rooj ntawm cov hlau xa tawm, steel xa tawm cov peev txheej concentrated reflux ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev yuav tsis tshwm sim, cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam hauv tsev thiab kev thov qauv yog hloov tau.

Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, kev ua lag luam yuav qhia ntau volatility, steel nqi thaum kawg kho qhov tob ntawm kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov khoom thiab xav tau thiab hlau ore thiab lwm yam raw khoom nqi fluctuations.

Xov Xwm Suav Metallurgical (Lub Yim Hli 3, 2021, nplooj 7, tsab 07)