I. Intshayelelo

Ukususela ekuqaleni kuka-2026, amanyathelo okuzikhusela kwezorhwebo aseYurophu nxamnye namaTshayinaumbhobho wentsimbiIimveliso ziye zanda kakhulu. I-European Union kunye namazwe angamalungu ayo anyuse kakhulu umda weepayipi zentsimbi zaseTshayina ezingena kwimarike yaseYurophu ngokudibanisa uphando oluchasene nokulahla inkunkuma, iindlela zokulungisa ukhuseleko, kunye neemvavanyo zokulwa nokujikeleza. Olu hlaselo lomgaqo-nkqubo luza phakathi kweengxabano ezikhulayo malunga nomthamo omkhulu wentsimbi kwihlabathi liphela kunye noxinzelelo olukhulayo kushishino lwentsimbi lwasekhaya lwaseYurophu ngexesha lotshintsho lwayo, nto leyo ebangela imingeni enzima kubathumeli bepayipi zentsimbi baseTshayina.

Eli nqaku libonelela ngohlalutyo olucwangcisiweyo oluvela kwiinkalo ezine: umxholo womgaqo-nkqubo, iimpembelelo ezithe ngqo, iziphumo ezingathanga ngqo, kunye namaqhinga okuphendula amashishini aseTshayina.

 II. Izinto Eziphambili Kwimigaqo-nkqubo Emitsha YaseYurophu Kwimibhobho Yentsimbi YaseTshayina

2.1 Amanyathelo Okukhusela Intsimbi ye-EU Aqiniswe Ngokubalulekileyo

Ngomhla we-13 ku-Epreli, ngo-2026, abaxoxisani abavela koorhulumente be-EU kunye nePalamente yaseYurophu bafikelele kwisivumelwano sokuqala sokuhlaziya ngokunzulu amanyathelo okukhusela isinyithi akhoyo. Izinto eziphambili zesivumelwano esitsha ziquka:

Okokuqala, ukwehla okukhulu kwizabelo zokungenisa ngaphandle ezingenarhafu. Isabelo sonyaka sokungenisa intsimbi engenarhafu siza kulinganiselwa kwi-18.3 yezigidi zeetoni, nto leyo ebonisa ukwehla malunga ne-47% ukusuka kumanqanaba angaphambili. Eli nani ngokusisiseko libuyela kumanqanaba okungenisa abonwe ngo-2013, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba i-EU icinezela ukunikezelwa kwentsimbi yangaphandle ngendlela ecwangcisiweyo.

Okwesibini, ukuphinda kabini kwamaxabiso erhafu engaphezulu kwesabelo. Ukungeniswa kwentsimbi okungaphezulu kwesabelo kuya kujongana nerhafu ye-50%, ephindwe kabini kunexabiso langaphambili le-25%. Oku kunyuka kwerhafu kunemiphumo emibi yesohlwayo, kunciphisa ngokuthe ngqo ukhuphiswano lwamaxabiso lweemveliso zepayipi zentsimbi zaseTshayina.

Okwesithathu, indlela yokwabiwa kwezabelo kwilizwe elithile. Isivumelwano esitsha sichaza isabelo sezabelo ezingenarhafu kwilizwe ngalinye lesithathu, oko kuthetha ukuba iTshayina iya kukhuphisana ngokuthe ngqo nabathengisi bentsimbi abakhulu abathumela ngaphandle abanjengeTurkey neIndiya ngezibonelelo zezabelo ezilinganiselweyo.

La manyathelo okukhusela aza kuqala ukusebenza emva kokuba inkqubo yangoku iphelelwe lixesha ngomhla wama-30 kuJuni 2026. Nangona imvume esemthethweni evela kwiBhunga laseYurophu kunye nePalamente yaseYurophu isalinde, oku kuthathwa ngokubanzi njengomthetho wenkqubo.

2.2 Ukugqitywa kokugqibela kokungalahli inkunkuma kwiiSilinda zentsimbi ezingenamthungo ezixineneyo

Ngomhla wesi-4 kweyoMdumba ngo-2026, iKhomishini yaseYurophu yapapasha i-Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/244, ibeka imithwalo eqinisekileyo yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kwiisilinda zentsimbi ezingenamthungo ezixineneyo ezivela eTshayina. Ezi mveliso zisetyenziselwa kakhulu ukugcina nokuthutha iigesi ezixinzelelweyo okanye ezimanzi, kuquka amacandelo amaninzi abalulekileyo kuquka nezicelo zoshishino, ezonyango, nezokhuseleko.

Amaxabiso erhafu ayathintela kakhulu: izinga eliqhelekileyo le-90.3%, kunye namaxabiso omntu ngamnye aqala kwi-57.7% ukuya kwi-59.7% kwinani elincinci leenkampani ezisebenzisane nophando. Eli nqanaba lemisebenzi liyazikhupha ngokufanelekileyo iimveliso zaseTshayina ezifanelekileyo kwimarike ye-EU.

Amanyathelo okulwa nokulahla inkunkuma asebenza iminyaka emihlanu, kunye nokuqokelelwa okuqinisekileyo kwemali ebikade ifunyenwe njengemisebenzi yexeshana.

2.3 Uphando Lokuchasana Nokugqogqa Lwandisa Ububanzi Bomsebenzi

NgoMatshi 2026, iKhomishini yaseYurophu yandisa umda wemirhumo yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kwiipayipi zentsimbi zaseTshayina kwiifom zemveliso ezazingalawulwa ngaphambili. Ngokukodwa, umrhumo okhoyo we-57.8% wokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kwiipayipi ezinemisonto okanye iipayipi ngoku ufikelela kwiipayipi ezithile ezingenamisonto okanye iipayipi ezinemibhobho (iikhowudi zeTARIC 7307 19 10 35 kunye ne-7307 19 10 45).

Uphando lutyhile ukuba abanye abathumeli ngaphandle baseTshayina babeziphepha iindlela ezikhoyo zokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma ngokuthumela iimveliso ezigqityiweyo (izixhobo ezingafakwanga ntambo) kwi-EU ukuze zicutshungulwe okokugqibela. Kwezi mveliso, izinto ezivela eTshayina zazingaphezulu kwe-60% yexabiso lilonke lemveliso egqityiweyo, ngelixa ixabiso elongeziweyo kwi-EU lihlala lingaphantsi kwe-25% yeendleko zokuvelisa, nto leyo eyayibangela ukugqobhoza.

Iinkampani ezine kuphela ezisekelwe kwi-EU—i-Erata Impex (eRomania), i-AGAflex (ePoland), kunye nezinye ezimbini—zifumene ukukhululwa, ngelixa isicelo seJianzhi Technology (eRomania) saliwe.

2.4 Umanyano lwezoQoqosho lwase-Eurasia Lwandisa Imisebenzi Yokulwa Nokulahla Inkunkuma

Ngaphandle kwe-EU, i-Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) yagqiba ngoJanuwari 2026 ukuba yongeze irhafu yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kwimibhobho yentsimbi engagqwali edityanisiweyo evela eTshayina kude kube nguNovemba 12, 2026. Le rhafu isukela kwi-14.62% ukuya kwi-17.28%—iphantsi kakhulu kunamanqanaba e-EU—kodwa isakongeza uxinzelelo ekuthunyelweni kwempahla yentsimbi yaseTshayina ngenxa yeendlela zokukhusela urhwebo ze-Union iyonke.

 III. Impembelelo Ethe Tye Kwimpahla Ethunyelwa Ngaphandle Yemibhobho Yentsimbi YaseTshayina

3.1 Ukwehla Okukhawulezileyo Komthamo Wokuthunyelwa Kwempahla EYurophu

Xa zizonke, le migaqo-nkqubo iya kudala "ukuncitshiswa kabini" kubungakanani kunye nexabiso lokuthunyelwa kwepayipi yentsimbi yaseTshayina eYurophu. Kwicala lobungakanani, amanyathelo okhuseleko anciphisa ii-quota ezingenarhafu ngama-47%, oko kuthetha ukuba nokuba iTshayina ifumana isabelo see-quota ezithile zelizwe, ubungakanani bokwenyani obufanelekileyo bokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwerhafu buya kuncitshiswa kakhulu. Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okugqitha ii-quota kujongene nerhafu yama-50%, nto leyo eyenza ukuba ukuphila kwezorhwebo kungathandabuzeki kakhulu.

Kwicala lexabiso, irhafu yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma engama-90.3% kwiisilinda ezingenamthungo eziphezulu iphantse yavala imarike ye-EU yezi mveliso. Ukudibana kwemisebenzi yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma ekhoyo kunye namanyathelo amatsha okukhusela kuya kunciphisa ngokucwangcisiweyo inzuzo yexabiso leemveliso zepayipi zentsimbi zaseTshayina kwimarike yaseYurophu.

3.2 Iindleko zokuthobela imithetho ezikhulayo kunye neengozi zorhwebo

Ukwanda kophando oluchasene nokungavumeleki kuthetha ukuba abathumeli bangaphandle baseTshayina bajongene nokuhlolwa ngokungqongqo kweemodeli zabo zokuthumela ngaphandle. Iindlela ezazisetyenziswa ngaphambili ukuthintela imisebenzi—njengokudluliselwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle okanye ukucubungula nokuhlanganisa izinto ngokulula ngaphakathi kwe-EU—ngoku ziphantsi kweliso elibukhali yiKhomishini yaseYurophu.

Amashishini aseTshayina kufuneka anike amaxwebhu aneenkcukacha ezithe vetshe malunga nemvelaphi kunye nolwakhiwo lweendleko ukubonisa ukuthotyelwa kwemithetho yemvelaphi ye-EU kunye neemfuno zexabiso elongeziweyo. Oku kwandisa ngokuthe ngqo iindleko zokuthobela imithetho kwaye kuphakamisa umngcipheko weengxabano zorhwebo.

3.3 Uxinzelelo Olunzima Lweenzuzo Zeenkampani

Nokuba amanye amashishini ayakwazi ukugcina ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eYurophu ngokusebenzisa iingxoxo zamaxabiso okanye ukwamkela inxalenye yeendleko zerhafu, irhafu ye-50% yokukhusela i-over-quota kunye nemirhumo ephezulu njenge-90.3% idlula kakhulu amandla okuthwala inzuzo amashishini aqhelekileyo. Njengoko inzuzo epheleleyo kushishino lweepayipi zentsimbi isuka kwi-5% ukuya kwi-10%, nayiphi na irhafu entsha iya kuguqula ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okuxhomekeke kwi-EU ukusuka ekubeni nenzuzo ukuya ekubeni kulahlekelwa.

 IV. Iziphumo ezingathanga ngqo kunye neziphumo zexesha eliphakathi ukuya kwelide

4.1 Ukuphambuka kwiMarike yoThumelo lweLizwe kunye noKhuphiswano oluQhubekekileyo

Imiqobo ekhula ngokukhawuleza kwimarike yaseYurophu iya kunyanzela amashishini eepayipi zentsimbi zaseTshayina ukuba akhawulezise ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwamanye amazwe. UMzantsi-mpuma weAsia, uMbindi Mpuma, iAfrika, kunye neLatin America ziya kuba ziinjongo eziphambili. Nangona kunjalo, olu tshintsho lujongene nemingeni emibini emikhulu:

Okokuqala, ubungakanani bemfuno kunye neemfuno zomgangatho kwezi marike zahlukile kwezaseYurophu, nto leyo eyenza kube nzima ukutshintsha ngokupheleleyo imarike yaseYurophu. Okwesibini, utshintsho oluqokelelweyo ngamashishini aseTshayina lunokukhokelela kukhuphiswano olukhulu kwezi marike, nto leyo ethoba amaxabiso okuthumela ngaphandle kunye nemida yenzuzo.

4.2 Ukukhuthaza Ukuphuculwa Kwemizi-mveliso kunye noTshintsho olunexabiso eliphezulu

Ngokwembono entle, ukuvalwa kwemarike yaseYurophu kunyanzela ishishini leepayipi zentsimbi laseTshayina ukuba likhawulezise utshintsho lwalo ukusuka “ekuqhutywa yixabiso” ukuya “ekuqhutywe yixabiso.” Iipayipi zentsimbi eziqhelekileyo azinalo ikamva eYurophu, kodwa iipayipi zentsimbi ezikhethekileyo, iityhubhu ze-alloy eziphezulu, kunye neemveliso ezintsonkothileyo zobugcisa ezisetyenziswa kumacandelo amandla kunye neekhemikhali zisenamandla emarike.

Amashishini eepayipi zentsimbi aseTshayina kufuneka andise utyalo-mali lwe-R&D, aphucule umxholo wetekhnoloji yemveliso, aze agqithe imiqobo yorhwebo ngokusebenzisa ukhuphiswano olwahlukileyo endaweni yokhuphiswano lwamaxabiso.

4.3 Uvavanyo olutsha lobudlelwane bezoqoqosho phakathi kwe-EU ne-China

Urhwebo lwentsimbi luyindawo ebaluleke kakhulu kubudlelwane bezoqoqosho phakathi kwe-EU neTshayina. Ukuqina okukhulu kwe-EU kumanyathelo okukhusela intsimbi kuza emva kophando lwe-EU oluchasene nenkxaso-mali kwizithuthi zombane zaseTshayina kunye nokwanda kokungqubana kwezorhwebo phakathi kwamacala omabini. Ingxabano yorhwebo lwemibhobho yentsimbi inokuba yindawo entsha ephambili kwiingxoxo zamazwe amabini okanye inokujongwa kwisakhelo sengxoxo yoqoqosho lwamazwe amabini ngokubanzi.

V. Amaqhinga okuphendula kwiiShishini zaseTshayina

5.1 Amaqhinga eXesha elifutshane: Ukuthobela imithetho kunye nokwahlukahluka kweMarike

Okokuqala, thatha inxaxheba ngokukhutheleyo kwinkqubo yokwabiwa kwezabelo ezithile zelizwe phantsi kwamanyathelo okukhusela e-EU ukuze ufumane isabelo esifanelekileyo sezabelo ezingenarhafu. Amashishini aseTshayina kufuneka achaze umdla wawo ngemibutho yoshishino kunye neendlela zikarhulumente ngexesha leengxoxo zobugcisa malunga nokwabiwa kwezabelo.

Okwesibini, jonga ngokucokisekileyo ukuthobela imvelaphi yeemveliso ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ukuze ungabanjwa kuphando oluchasene nokungavumeleki. Kwiimveliso ezifuna ukucutshungulwa ngakumbi ngaphakathi kwe-EU, qinisekisa ukuba ixabiso elongeziweyo liyahlangabezana neemfuno zemithetho ye-EU yemvelaphi.

Okwesithathu, kukhawuleziswe uphuhliso lweemarike ezizezinye. Imfuno yeziseko zophuhliso eMzantsi-mpuma Asia, eMbindi Mpuma, naseLatin America iyaqhubeka nokukhula. Amashishini aseTshayina kufuneka asebenzise iindlela zentsebenziswano phantsi kweBelt and Road Initiative ukuchonga iindawo ezintsha zokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.

5.2 Amaqhinga eXesha eliPhakathi ukuya kwelide: Intsebenziswano yoBuchule kunye noPhuculo lweMizi-mveliso

Okokuqala, jonga amathuba otyalo-mali oluthe ngqo eYurophu. Ukuseka izibonelelo zemveliso kwi-EU kunokuthintela ngempumelelo imiqathango yokungenisa impahla, nangona oku kufuna amandla aqinileyo ezemali kunye nolawulo kwaye kukwajongene nokuhlolwa kwe-EU "ngemali yaseTshayina."

Okwesibini, khuthaza ukuhlanganiswa kweshishini kunye nokwenza ngcono amandla. Ukuvalwa kwemarike yaseYurophu kuya kususa amandla athile angasemva axhomekeke ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe ngamaxabiso aphantsi, okunokunyusa ukugxila kweshishini. Amashishini aphambili anokuphucula uqoqosho lwamanqanaba obubanzi kunye nobuchwepheshe ngokudibanisa kunye nokuthenga.

Okwesithathu, khawulezisa ukuphuculwa kwesakhiwo semveliso. Shiya imibhobho yentsimbi eqhelekileyo uye kwimibhobho yentsimbi ekhethekileyo enexabiso eliphezulu, uphuhlise iindawo ezisandula ukusetyenziswa ezifana namandla amatsha, ukugcinwa kunye nokuthuthwa kwamandla e-hydrogen, kunye nokuhlolwa kweoyile negesi elwandle olunzulu, nto leyo ephucula ngokusisiseko ukungabi nakutshintshwa kwemveliso.

 VI. Isiphelo

Imigaqo-nkqubo emitsha yaseYurophu malunga nemibhobho yentsimbi yaseTshayina ngo-2026 ibonisa inyathelo elikhulu phambili ekukhuselweni korhwebo lwentsimbi yi-EU kunye namazwe angamalungu ayo. Ukudibana kokunciphisa ngama-47% kwizabelo ezingenarhafu zokhuseleko, ukuphinda kabini kwerhafu engaphezulu kwesabelo ukuya kuma-50%, irhafu yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma ephezulu ukuya kuma-90.3% kwiisilinda ezingenamthungo ophezulu, kunye nokwanda okuqhubekayo kophando lokulwa nokuthintela ukugqogqwa kwemveliso zenza umqobo omkhulu worhwebo ojongene nokuthunyelwa kwempahla ngaphandle kwemibhobho yentsimbi yaseTshayina kwiminyaka yakutshanje.

Kwishishini leepayipi zentsimbi laseTshayina, oku kubonisa umngeni kunye nethuba lotshintsho. Kwixesha elifutshane, ukuncipha kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eYurophu akunakuphepheka, nto leyo efuna ukuba amashishini ajongane nophononongo lokuthobela imithetho kwaye akhawulezise ukwahlukahlukana kweemarike. Kwixesha eliphakathi ukuya kwelide, olu xinzelelo lwangaphandle luya kunyanzela eli shishini ukuba likhawulezise ukususwa komthamo obuyela umva, likhuthaze ukuphuculwa kobuchwepheshe, kwaye lihlole intsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe yomthamo.

Umdlalo worhwebo lwentsimbi phakathi kweTshayina neYurophu uza kuqhubeka. Amashishini aseTshayina kufuneka aphucule ukhuphiswano lwawo oluphambili ngelixa ethobela imithetho yorhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe ukuze akwazi ukuhamba kwindawo yorhwebo lwehlabathi entsonkothileyo ngakumbi.