Ngomhla wesi-5 kweyoKwindla, ngo-2026 – Ukujonga uhlengahlengiso lweCandelo loNikezelo kunye namathuba acwangcisiweyo

Njengoko singena kwiveki yokuqala kaMatshi 2026, umbhobho wentsimbi ongenamthungo wehlabathi, umbhobho wentsimbi odibeneyo, kunye nemarike yecandelo lesakhiwo elingenanto imi kwindawo ebalulekileyo yokudibana. Njengoko kusele malunga neeveki ezine kwikota yokuqala ka-2026, eli shishini lihamba phambili kwimveliso emva kweNyanga yoNyaka oMtsha ngelixa livavanya imiphumo enzulu yoxinzelelo olukhulayo lwezopolitiko kuMbindi Mpuma. Izenzo zomkhosi zangoFebruwari 28 ezibandakanya i-Iran, i-Israel, kunye ne-United States, kunye nokuvalwa okulandelayo kweStrait of Hormuz, zizise izinto ezintsha kwiimarike zamandla zehlabathi kunye nothutho lwentsimbi.

Isishwankathelo se-Geopolitical: I-Strait of Hormuz Factor

Ukwanda kwakutshanje kweengxaki zoMbindi Mpuma kutshintshe kakhulu imeko yezothutho yokuthunyelwa kweepayipi zentsimbi kwiimarike eziphambili. Ngomhla wama-28 kuFebruwari 2026, amanyathelo omkhosi adibeneyo ajolise e-Iran abangele impindezelo ekhawulezileyo, kuquka ukuvalwa kweStrait of Hormuz—indawo apho malunga nama-20% orhwebo lweoyile lwehlabathi ludlula khona. Olu phuhliso lunempembelelo ebalulekileyo kushishino lweepayipi zentsimbi:

Impembelelo yeNdleko yaMandla: Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eoyile, kunye nokunyuka okunokwenzeka ukuya kwi-$100 ngebhareli, kuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo iindleko zemveliso yentsimbi—ingakumbi kwimisebenzi yombane ye-arc furnace exhomekeke kakhulu kwiingeniso zamandla. Oku kudala uxinzelelo oluphezulu kwiindleko zokuvelisa iipayipi zentsimbi yekhabhoni, iipayipi zentsimbi ye-alloy, kunye neepayipi zentsimbi engagqwaliyo engenamthungo.

Ukuphazamiseka Kwezinto Ezithuthwayo: Abanini beenqanawa bayayimisa imisebenzi okanye baya kwiindlela ezinde nezibiza kakhulu, nto leyo ebangela ukunyuka okukhawulezileyo kwamaxabiso emithwalo kunye namaxesha okuhanjiswa kwepayipi yomgca, i-OCTG (iimpahla ze-Oil Country Tubular), kunye nokuthunyelwa kwepayipi yolwakhiwo oluya kwiimarike zaseMbindi Mpuma.

Ukuvezwa Kokuthunyelwa Kwezinto Ngaphandle Ngokuthe Ngqo: Umfanekiso Ongaqondakaliyo

Uhlalutyo olupheleleyo lubonisa ukuba nangona ukuvezwa ngokuthe ngqo kwiimarike zase-Iran kuncinci, impembelelo engathanga ngqo kwiindawo zothutho lwengingqi inkulu kakhulu.

Ukubonakaliswa Okukhawulelweyo Ngokuthe Ngqo e-Iran:

Iipayipi zeNtsimbi ezingenamthungo: Ngowama-2025, ukuthunyelwa kweepayipi ezingenamthungo eTshayina e-Iran kufikelele kwiitoni ezingama-33,040 kuphela, nto leyo emele i-0.53% kuphela yokuthunyelwa kweepayipi ezingenamthungo—inani eliye lehla kancinci ukusuka kwi-1.49% ngo-2021.

Iipayipi zeNtsimbi eziWelding: Ngokufanayo, ukuthunyelwa kweepayipi eziwelding e-Iran kufikelele kwiitoni ze-metric ezingama-7,610 kuphela ngo-2025, oku kuthetha kuphela i-0.12% yetotali iyonke yeepayipi eziwelding ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.

La manani aqinisekisa ukuba i-Iran ngokwayo ayisiyo imarike ephambili yabathengisi bemibhobho yentsimbi baseTshayina. Ukuvezwa kokwenyani kukwenye indawo.

Ukuvezwa Okubalulekileyo Okungathanga Ngqo Ngeendawo Zokuhlala zasePersian Gulf:

Ukuvalwa kweStrait of Hormuz kuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe amathandathu asePersian Gulf amele inxalenye enkulu yokuthunyelwa kwempahla ngemibhobho yentsimbi eTshayina:

Kwimibhobho yeNtsimbi engenamthungo: ISaudi Arabia, i-UAE, i-Iraq, iKuwait, iQatar, kunye neBahrain zizonke zingenise iitoni ze-metric eziyi-1.653 yezigidi zeepayipi ezingenamthungo ezivela eTshayina ngo-2025—ezibandakanya i-26.31% iyonke yeepayipi ezingenamthungo ezithunyelwa ngaphandle. Oku kumela phantse ikota yazo zonke iipayipi ezingenamthungo, zonke ezidlula kwiStrait of Hormuz.

Kwimibhobho yentsimbi edibeneyo: ISaudi Arabia kunye ne-UAE zodwa zithathe iitoni ezingama-679,300 zeetoni zeepayipi ezidibeneyo ezingenisiweyo ngo-2025, ezimele phantse i-11% yetotali iyonke yeepayipi ezidibeneyo ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.

Ukuphazamiseka okukhoyo ngoku kudala imingeni ekhawulezileyo kwezi zinto zithunyelwayo: iindleko zokuthutha ezikhulayo, ukuxinana kweenqanawa, ixesha elandisiweyo lokuhanjiswa, kunye nokwanda履约iingozi.

Iinguqu zeMarike zekota yokuqala ka-2026: Ukuvuselelwa emva kweeholide kuyaqhubeka

Ngenxa yesi simo sezopolitiko, imakethi yasekhaya iyaqhubeka itshintsha ngokwesiqhelo emva kokuphumla ixesha elide loNyaka oMtsha.

Ukuqalisa kwakhona kweMveliso:

Emva kokumiswa kwemveliso kweeveki ezi-4-5, iifektri kulo lonke elaseAsia ziqalise ukusebenza ngesantya esibonakalayo. Amanani okuza kwabasebenzi kumashishini eepayipi ezifakwe i-seamless ne-welded afikelele malunga ne-65% ngomhla weshumi woNyaka oMtsha, kwaye ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo kufike kwi-40% kwiveki yokuqala edlulileyo. Ukuveliswa kwepayipi yomgca we-API 5L, iityhubhu ezifakwe i-ASTM A106 Grade B ezingenamthungo, kunye ne-OCTG ngoku kukhawulezisa ngokukhawuleza.

I-Oda Esemva Ingongoma ephambili:

Isigaba sokuqala semveliso sigxile ekususeni ukusilela okukhulu kwemiyalelo yangaphambi kweeholide. Oku kuquka ukuthunyelwa okulibazisekileyo kweeprojekthi zemibhobho yeoyile negesi, izixhobo zokuvelisa umbane ezifuna iityhubhu zebhoyila kunye neetyhubhu zokutshintsha ubushushu, kunye nezakhiwo zokwakha ezifuna iipayipi zesakhiwo kunye namacandelo angenanto. Imibuzo emitsha malunga nemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo kunye neepayipi zentsimbi ye-alloy ingena emgceni emva kwezi zibophelelo.

Imbonakalo yeXabiso:

Abahlalutyi bezoshishino baqikelela ukuba amaxabiso eepayipi angenamthungo anokubona ukunyuka okuncinci ngoMatshi, exhaswa yi:

Iimeko ezinzima zokubonelela ziyaqhubeka ukususela kwixesha leholide elandisiweyo

Izinto ezibangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-energy ezidibene noxinzelelo oluphakathi kweMpuma Mpuma

Ukubuyela kwemfuno kancinci kancinci njengoko iiprojekthi ezisezantsi ziqala kwakhona

Ulindelo olujikeleze两会izibhengezo zomgaqo-nkqubo

Nangona kunjalo, imakethi ihlala ilumkile, abathengi besebenzisa indlela yokulinda baze babone de kubekho inani lee-odolo zokwenyani.

Iziphumo Ezicwangcisiweyo Zokuthengwa Kwemibhobho Yentsimbi

Ukudibana kokungaqiniseki kwezopolitiko kunye nokuxinana kokunikezelwa kwempahla emva kweeholide kufuna amaqhinga okuthenga asebenzayo.

Abathengi Abagxile KuMbindi Mpuma: Kwimpahla ezithunyelwa eSaudi Arabia, e-UAE, e-Iraq, eKuwait, eQatar, naseBahrain, ucwangciso lothutho olukhawulezileyo lubalulekile. Lindela ukunyuka kweendleko zokuthutha nge-15-25% kunye nokulibaziseka okunokwenzeka kweeveki ezi-2-4. Qinisekisa nomthengisi wakho wepayipi yentsimbi ukuba zonke iiSatifikethi zoVavanyo lweMill (MTC) kunye neeSatifikethi zeMvelaphi azinasiphako ukunciphisa umngcipheko werhafu.

Ingqwalasela yokwahlukahluka: Imeko yangoku igxininisa ukubaluleka kokwahlukahluka kwamaxwebhu okuthumela ngaphandle kunye nokuhlola iindlela ezahlukeneyo zokuhambisa imibhobho ebalulekileyo kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-OCTG.

Ungxamiseko lokuCwangcisa lweQ2: Njengoko kusele malunga neeveki ezine kwiQ2 loku-1, ngoku lixesha lokugqibezela iimfuno zeQ2 lowama-2026. Kwiiprojekthi ezifunaI-ASTM A335 P11Iityhubhu ze-alloy ze-/P22/P91, EN 10219 S355J2Hiindawo ezingenanto, okanye umbhobho womgca we-API 5L X52/X60, ukubandakanyeka kwangethuba kukhusela amathuba emveliso ngaphambi kokuphazamiseka okunokwenzeka.

Ipotifoliyo yeMveliso eYandisiweyo: IiNkcukacha eziHlaziyayo zeHlabathi

Phakathi kwezi nguqu kwimarike, siyaqhubeka nokuqinisa iimveliso zethu ezibanzi ukuze sihlangabezane neemfuno ezahlukeneyo zeeprojekthi kwihlabathi liphela.

Izisombululo zeMibhobho yeNsimbi eWelded: Uluhlu lwethu olwandisiweyo lweemibhobho zentsimbi ewelded lubonelela ngezicelo zesakhiwo, zoomatshini, kunye neepayipi, zibonelela ngezinye iindlela ezingabizi kakhulu apho iinkcukacha ezingenamthungo zinganyanzelekanga.

Iinxalenye Ezingenanto Zesakhiwo Ngokwemigangatho YaseYurophu: Sibonelela ngeetyhubhu zesikwere zeprimiyamu kunye neenxalenye ezingenanto eziziingxande (RHS) ezenzelweEN 10210(igqityiwe shushu) kwayeEN 10219imigangatho (eyakhiwe ngokubandayo). Amanqanaba aquka i-S355J2H abonelela ngomlinganiselo ogqwesileyo wokuqina-ubunzima kwizakhiwo zanamhlanje, iziseko zophuhliso, kunye nezixhobo zoshishino.

Isisombululo Esipheleleyo Sourcing: Ukususela kwimibhobho yoxinzelelo engenamthungo yenkonzo ebalulekileyo ukuya kwiityhubhu zesakhiwo ezidityanisiweyo kunye namacandelo okuchaneka okwenziwe ngokubandayo, sinikezela ngomthombo omnye nothembekileyo weemfuno zakho ezipheleleyo zepayipi yentsimbi kunye neetyhubhu.

Isiphelo: Uhambo Olucwangcisiweyo Ngamaxesha Anzima

Inyanga yokugqibela yekota yokuqala ka-2026 inika imeko yokusebenza eyinkimbinkimbi ngokukodwa—ukulinganisela ukulungelelaniswa kwemveliso emva kweeholide kunye nokuphazamiseka kwezopolitiko okuchaphazela iimarike eziphambili zaseMbindi Mpuma. Impumelelo ifuna abathengi ukuba benze izinto ngokukhawuleza nangokuchaneka, bexhaswa ngababoneleli abaqonda le mingeni ininzi.

 Siliqabane lakho elinobuchule lokuhamba ngolu bunzima. Ubuchule bethu bubandakanya uluhlu olupheleleyo ukusuka kwimibhobho yentsimbi yendabuko engenamthungo kunye nemibhobho yentsimbi ye-alloy ukuya kwimigca yethu eyandisiweyo yemibhobho yentsimbi edibeneyo kunye namacandelo esakhiwo esingenanto aseYurophu. Sidibanisa ukuthembeka kokusebenza kunye nobukrelekrele bemarike enzulu ukuqinisekisa ukuba iiprojekthi zakho zinezixhobo ezifanelekileyo, kunye neziqinisekiso ezifanelekileyo, ngexesha elifanelekileyo—kungakhathaliseki ukungaqiniseki kwehlabathi.

Nxibelelana neqela lethu lentengiso namhlanje ukuze uxoxe ngesicwangciso sakho sokuthenga sekota yesibini ka-2026 kunye nokufikelela okuqinisekileyo kumandla emveliso emva kweeholide phakathi kweemeko zemarike ezitshintshayo.