Analyses of Steel market condition

My steel: Last week, the domestic steel market prices kept going strong. First of all, from the following points, first of all, the overall market remains optimistic about the progress and expectations of the resumption of work after the holiday, so prices are rising rapidly. At the same time, most steel companies maintain a firm attitude towards guiding prices, and the market has strong bottom support in the short term. On the other hand, from this cycle to mid-March, the spot market resources will still maintain a trend of accumulation, and when the demand is officially launched, some varieties will start to cash in profits to facilitate working capital, so under the current high price situation , The extent that prices continue to rise will also slow down. From the perspective of the final demand situation, the current price increase has forced the terminal cost to rise sharply, and the terminal’s recognition of the current price has dropped to a low point, and most purchasers will maintain a wait-and-see attitude in the early stage. It is generally estimated that this week (3.1-3.5 2021), the domestic steel market prices may be in a state of adjustment at a high level, and it is of little significance to continue to rise.

 

Steel House: Last week, the domestic steel market prices continued to rise rapidly, and the increase of steel plates was greater than that of construction steel. Judging from the recent market, steel mills have maintained a high level of production and steel inventories have continued to rise rapidly. The operating rate of blast furnaces that been monitored is 93.83%, which continues to fluctuate at a high level; the operating rate of electric furnaces has increased significantly by 20.1 percentage points to 57.35%; the five major steel mills and The total market inventory was 31.89 million tons, an increase of 2.87 million tons from last week, of which the market inventory increased by 2.6 million tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 270,000 tons, and the transfer of steel inventory to the market was accelerated. On a Steel Market Club Meeting. Most of the guests were optimistic about the market in the first half of the year, mainly based on the following factors: First, the downstream demand was relatively good, and the start-up of infrastructure was faster than in previous years; Second, the cost of steel plants increased The pressure is greater; the third is the recovery of the overseas economy, the demand for steel has increased, and the price of steel is significantly higher than the domestic market; the fourth is the proliferation of global liquidity, pushing up the prices of bulk commodities. However, the current downstream demand has not yet fully started. The short-term rapid increase in steel prices will stimulate steel mills to increase production and businesses to cash in profit mentality. It is expected that this week (2021.3.1-3.5) domestic steel market prices will show a trend of volatility and strong operation.

 

Lange: At present, the cost support of the domestic steel market has slightly weakened. At the same time, after the sustained increase after the Spring Festival, market transactions have been up and down. In March, the domestic steel market will gradually shift from cost support to a game between supply and demand. From the perspective of the supply side, domestic steel mills have maintained a relatively high production enthusiasm since this year, and there has been no significant reduction in production compared with previous years. Moreover, in mid-February, the crude steel production of key steel companies showed a rapid recovery trend, and made a breakthrough in one fell swoop. A record high, greatly exceeding market expectations. At the same time, stimulated by the sharp rise in the steel market after the holiday, domestic electric furnace steel production capacity is also showing a rapid recovery trend, and the supply pressure in the later period will not be underestimated. From the demand side, since the beginning of this year, the State Council has continuously issued major policies or plans, which will further accelerate the progress of related infrastructure construction projects, which will obviously drive the demand of the domestic steel market.

According to calculations from the weekly price prediction model data, this week (3.1-3.5 2021) the domestic steel market prices will fluctuate up, the long product market prices will rise steadily, the profile market prices will fluctuate and become stronger, and the plate market The price will rise steadily, and the market price of pipes will rise steadily.

 

China Steel.com: Steel prices continued to rise last week, steel futures continued to hit new highs, and most of the spot quotations were raised. The gains were mainly concentrated in the first half of the week. From a macro perspective, the positive atmosphere continued, global inflation expectations have pushed up, and crude oil has continued to rise, which has boosted the domestic futures market. Spot quotations have followed upward adjustments. The NPC & CPPCC will be held soon. As the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the positive expectations of policy are strong. From the perspective of supply and demand, the five major varieties are still in the stage of continuous inventory accumulation. Last week, the increase in inventory slowed down slightly compared with the Spring Festival period. Apparent demand began to rebound, and the release of demand was earlier than in previous years. However, it should be noted that this round of rapid rise in steel prices is mainly driven by high demand expectations, downstream construction has not been fully launched, and the momentum and continuity of subsequent increases depend on whether demand can be fulfilled on schedule. In the short term, this week will usher in the opening of the NPC & CPPCC. The expectation of favorable policies are strengthen. After the Lantern Festival, the demand release will gradually accelerate, and steel prices are expected to run strongly.


Post time: Mar-04-2021