La 28 Mmesa, 2026 - Kakaretso ea 'Maraka oa Leano bakeng sa Bareki ba Lefatše

Ha re kena bekeng ea ho qetela ea Mmesa 2026, phaephe ea tšepe e se nang sekoli lefatšeng ka bophara, phaephe ea tšepe e kopantsoeng, le 'maraka oa likarolo tse se nang sekoli li shebane le ho beoa ha odara ea pele ho matsatsi a phomolo le ho kengoa tšebetsong kotara ea bobeli. Ha matsatsi a phomolo a Letsatsi la Mots'eanong (la 1-5 Mots'eanong) a ntse a atamela, bareki ba na le fensetere e moqotetsane ea ho tiisa libaka tsa tlhahiso pele ho khefu ea selemo le selemo ea ts'ebetso. Ho sa le joalo, tsitsipano ea Bochabela bo Hare e se e fetohile mokhoa oa tšitiso e laoloang, 'me metheo ea motheo ea' maraka e ntse e tsitsitse ho pholletsa le lihlopha tse ngata tsa lihlahisoa.

Ntlafatso ea Geopolitical: Khohlo ea Hormuz - E Tsitsitsoe Empa ha ea Rarolloa

Khohlano ea sesole e amang Iran, Isiraele le United States e ntse e tsoela pele ho susumetsa thepa ea khoebo, leha boemo bo kene mokhahlelong oa tsitsipano e laoloang ka mekhoa e thehiloeng ea ho romela thepa.

Ts'ebetso ea Likepe: Seterata sa Hormuz se ntse se le tlas'a tlhokomelo e ntlafalitsoeng ea likepe tsa metsing, 'me ha ho na keketseho e kholo libekeng tsa morao tjena. Mehala ea likepe e ntse e lefisa litefiso tse eketsehileng tsa thepa.

1,000–1,000–2,500 ka setshelo bakeng sa thepa e yang Koung, mme tieho ya dipalangwang e nka matsatsi a 7-12 ha e bapiswa le dikemiso tsa pele ho ntwa.

Phallo ea Lintho Tse Kenang Sebakeng: Linaha tsa Lekhotla la Tšebelisano-'moho la Kou - tseo ka kakaretso li ikarabellang bakeng sa ho feta 26% ea lipeipi tse romelloang kantle ho China - li ntse li tsoela pele ho fumana lipeipi tsa tšepe tse se nang sekoli, lipeipi tsa mohala le thepa ea OCTG, leha moralo oa thepa o hloka nako e tsitsitseng ea ho boloka thepa.

Tšusumetso ea Theko ea Matla: Litheko tsa oli li tsitsitse ho

75–Sebaka sa 75–82/barrel, ho fokotsa khatello ea litšenyehelo hang-hang tlhahisong ea tšepe ea arc ea motlakase ha ka nako e ts'oanang ho boloka mokatong o tšehetsang theko ea liphaephe tsa tšepe ea carbon.

Tšusumetso ea Matsatsi a Phomolo a Letsatsi la Mots'eanong: Fensetere ea ho Qetela ea ho Laela Pele ho Matsatsi a Phomolo

Matsatsi a phomolo a tlang a Letsatsi la Mots'eanong (la 1-5 Mots'eanong) a hlahisa khefu e khutšoanyane empa e le ea bohlokoa tlhahisong le tsamaisong ea thepa ho pholletsa le Chaena. Mokhoa ona oa selemo le selemo o na le litlamorao tse hlakileng:

Kemiso ea Tlhahiso: Mills e tla emisa ts'ebetso bakeng sa matsatsi a phomolo a naha a matsatsi a 5. Liodara tse behiloeng kamora la 28-29 Mmesa ka kakaretso li tla sebetsoa potolohong ea tlhahiso ea kamora matsatsi a phomolo (ho qala ka la 6-7 Mots'eanong).

Kemiso ea Litšebelisano: Ts'ebetso ea koung e tla lieha nakong ea beke ea matsatsi a phomolo. Sebaka sa likepe bakeng sa thepa e tlohang mafelong a Mmesa se se se phetheloa.

Fensetere ea Theko: Bakeng sa bareki ba hlokang liphaephe tse se nang mohele, liphaephe tsa tšepe e kopantsoeng, kapa likarolo tsa sebopeho bakeng sa ho fana ka projeke mafelong a Mots'eanong kapa mathoasong a Phuptjane, beke ena e emela monyetla oa ho qetela oa ho fumana libaka tsa tlhahiso ea pele ho matsatsi a phomolo.

Ntlafatso ea 'Maraka oa Kotara ea Bobeli ea 2026: Metheo e Tsitsitseng ho pholletsa le Lihlopha tsa Lihlahisoa

Kotara ea bobeli e ntse e tsoela pele ho bonts'a maemo a 'maraka a leka-lekaneng ka tlhoko e tsitsitseng ho pholletsa le makala a bohlokoa.

Tlhahiso le Phepelo

Lifeme ho pholletsa le Asia li sebetsa ka tšebeliso ea matla a 75-80%, ka tlhahiso e tsitsitseng ea liphaephe tsa tšepe ea khabone, liphaephe tsa tšepe ea alloy, le liphaephe tse se nang mohele tsa tšepe e sa hloekang.

Linako tsa ho etella pele li lula li tsitsitse: matsatsi a 30-40 bakeng sa ASTM A106 Kereiti ea B le API 5L B, matsatsi a 45-55 bakeng sa letoto la li-alloy tsa ASTM A335 (P11/P22/P91) le liphaephe tse se nang mohele tse bophara bo boholo.

Litšenyehelo tsa thepa e tala - li-billet tsa tšepe ea khabone, li-coil tsa HR, li-ferroalloy, le tšepe e senyehileng - li ntse li le moeling ho pholletsa le Mmesa, li fana ka monyetla oa ho bolela esale pele litheko.

Bakhanni ba Tlhokeho ho latela Lekala la Tšebeliso ea Qetellong

Mesebetsi ea Hona Joale ea Lekala Lihlahisoa tsa Bohlokoa tse Batloang

Oli le Khase (E Phahameng) Phaephe ea mohala ea API ea 5L X52/X60/X65 e tšoarellang, e nang le bophahamo bo phahameng, OCTG, casing, tube

Oli le Khase (Bohareng ba Molapo) Merero ea liphaephe e tsitsitseng, Liphaephe tse se nang sekoli tse kholo, phaephe ea mohala o kopantsoeng

Tlhahiso ea Motlakase Liphaephe tsa boiler tsa ASTM A213 T11/T22, ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91 tse tsitsitseng, tse tsamaisoang ke tlhokomelo, liphaephe tsa phapanyetsano ea mocheso

Ho hola ha meralo ea motheo, haholo-holo Asia Boroa-bochabela le Bochabela bo Hare EN 10210 S355J2H, likarolo tsa EN 10219, lipeipi tse sekwere, likarolo tse sekoti tse khutlonnetsepa (RHS), phaephe ea ho bokella

Tlhahiso ea Liindasteri Li-tube tse itekanetseng, tse tsitsitseng tse se nang sekoli, li-tube tsa mechini, li-tube tsa silindara ea hydraulic

Niche ea Ts'ebetso ea Lik'hemik'hale, liphaephe tse se nang mohele tse sa ruseng tse ikhethileng tsa ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L, liphaephe tse sa ruseng tse peli tse sa ruseng

Tebello ea Litheko bakeng sa Kotara ea Bobeli ea 2026

Litheko tsa Liphaephe tse se Nang Seam: Ho lebelletsoe hore li tla lula li tsitsitse ho fihlela ka Mots'eanong, ka liphetoho tse nyane tse ka nyolohang ka Phuptjane haeba litšenyehelo tsa eneji li nyoloha kapa tlhoko e potlaka.

Litheko tsa Liphaephe tse Welded: Ho lebelletsoe botsitso, ho latela haufi-ufi metsamao ea litheko tsa HR coil.

Tokelo ea Lithuso tsa Geopolitical: Lithomello tse eang Bochabela bo Hare li ntse li tsoela pele ho ba le tefo ea 8-12% ha li bapisoa le libaka tse ling.

Litaba tsa morao tjena tsa Indasteri: Bokhoni, Leano la Khoebo, le Theknoloji

Lintlafatso tse 'maloa mafelong a Mmesa li bopa sebaka sa tlholisano bakeng sa bafepedi le bareki ba lipeipi tsa tšepe:

Bokgoni bo Botjha ba EAF bo Atolosa Phepelo ya Khabone e Tlase: Mohlahisi wa boraro wa tshepe wa China o laetse mohala o motjha wa phaephe e se nang moedi wa sebopi sa motlakase (EAF), o eketsa ditone tse 200,000 tsa bokgoni ba selemo le selemo ba khabone e tlase. Sena se eketsa ho fumaneha ha diphaephe tse se nang moedi tse se nang moedi tse nang le dikarolelano tse phahameng tsa ditshila tse ngotsweng (20-25%) le tshebediso ya matla a tala (30-50%) - e leng ntho ya bohlokwa bakeng sa bareki ba Europe ba tobaneng le ditlhoko tsa CBAM.

Tlhahlobo ea Litokomane tsa CBAM ea Eketseha: Khomishene ea Europe e phatlalalitse netefatso e ntlafalitsoeng ea data ea carbon footprint bakeng sa thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha ea tšepe, ho tloha ka la 1 Mots'eanong. Barekisi ba thepa ba tlameha ho netefatsa hore litlaleho tsa mesi e tsoang kantle ho naha tse ikhethileng li nepahetse, lia netefatsoa, ​​​​'me li tsamaea le litifikeiti tsa matla a tala le litokomane tsa karolelano ea litšila.

Phaephe ea Meralo ea Motheo ea Bochabela bo Hare ea Atoloha: Merero e mecha ea phetisetso ea metsi le ea kaho e phatlalalitsoe Saudi Arabia, UAE le Qatar, e leng se hlahisang tlhoko e tsoelang pele ea liphaephe tse tšetsoeng ka bophara bo boholo, likarolo tse se nang letho tsa sebopeho, le phaephe ea ho bokella bakeng sa kabo ea H2 2026 le kotara ea pele ea 2027.

Tlhahlobo ea Leano la Khoebo la US: Tsamaiso ea US e ntse e etsa tlhahlobo ea litefiso tsa Karolo ea 232 mabapi le thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha ea tšepe, ka liphetoho tse ka bang teng tse lebelletsoeng kotara ea boraro ea 2026. Bareki ba lokela ho beha leihlo tsoelo-pele bakeng sa tšusumetso phallong ea khoebo ea liphaephe tsa tšepe.

Leseli le Felletseng la Boitsebiso: Likereiti tsa Bohlokoa bakeng sa Kotara ea Bobeli ea 2026

Bareki ba rerang ditlhoko tsa kotara ya bobedi le kotara ya boraro ba lokela ho beha pele ditlhaloso tsena tse batlwang haholo:

Litšebeliso tsa Bohlokoa ba Sehlopha sa Boitsebiso Nako e Tloaelehileng ea Kemiso ea Q2 Mokhoa oa Tlhokahalo

API 5L X52/X60/X65Liphaephe tsa phetisetso ea oli le khase matsatsi a 35-45. E tšoarella, e na le bophahamo bo phahameng

ASTM A106 Kereiti B/C Tšebeletso ea mocheso o phahameng (liboiler, libaka tsa ho hloekisa, lifeme tsa motlakase) Matsatsi a 30-40 E tsitsitseng, e pharaletseng

ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91Phehlo ea motlakase, li-superheater, li-reheater matsatsi a 45-55 Lipotoloho tse tsitsitseng le tsa tlhokomelo

ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Tikoloho tse senyang, ts'ebetso ea lik'hemik'hale, indasteri ea lijo matsatsi a 40-50 E itekanetseng, e ikhethileng ho projeke

Tšebeletso ea mocheso o tlase oa ASTM A333 Kereiti ea 6 (LNG, cryogenic) Matsatsi a 40-55 Niche, merero e ikhethileng

EN 10210 S355J2H(e felile ka ho chesa) Meralo ea meaho, kaho ea meaho matsatsi a 35-45 Ho hola, ho tsamaisoa ke meralo ea motheo

EN 10219 S355J2H(e entsoeng ka serame) Meaho ea mechini, litšehetso, sekala matsatsi a 30-40 E tsitsitse, e fumaneha hohle

Liphaephe tse se nang sekoli tse nepahetseng Lisilindara tsa hydraulic, likarolo tsa likoloi, mechini matsatsi a 35-50. E mahareng, e hokahane le tlhahiso.

Litlhahiso tsa Maano a Theko bakeng sa Beke ea ho Qetela ea Mmesa

Kaha matsatsi a phomolo a Letsatsi la Mots'eanong a atamela mme kotara ya bobedi e ntse e tswela pele, re kgothaletsa diketso tse latelang:

Qetella Litaelo tse Potlakileng tsa Q2 Bekeng ena: Bakeng sa litlhoko tsa phaephe e se nang sekoli, phaephe ea motsoako, phaephe ea boiler, kapa phaephe e bophara bo boholo e hlokahalang bakeng sa ho tlisoa bofelong ba Mots'eanong kapa Phuptjane, beha liodara pele ho la 29 Mmesa ho fumana kabo ea tlhahiso ea pele ho matsatsi a phomolo.

Rera Linako tsa ho Etella Pele Kamora Matsatsi a Phomolo: Liodara tse behiloeng nakong ea beke ea matsatsi a phomolo (Mots'eanong 1-5) li tla sebetsoa ho qala ka la 6 Mots'eanong. Kenya khefu ena ea matsatsi a 5 lipalo tsa hau tsa ho tlisa thepa, haholo-holo bakeng sa merero e amehang ka nako.

Lokisetsa Litokomane tsa CBAM Esale Pele: Bakeng sa thepa e rometsoeng Europe ea liphaephe tsa tšepe ea carbon, liphaephe tsa tšepe ea alloy, kapa liphaephe tse se nang moqhaka tsa tšepe e sa hloekang, kopa liphutheloana tse felletseng tsa data ea carbon footprint - ho kenyeletsoa le litifikeiti tsa matla a tala, netefatso ea karolelano ea lithōle, le litlaleho tsa mosi o itseng oa sehlopha - nako e telele pele ho thomello.

Thepa e Sireletsehileng bakeng sa Libaka tsa Kou: Bakeng sa thepa ea liphaephe tsa mohala le ea OCTG ho ea Bochabela bo Hare, boloka libeke tse 1-2 tsa nako ea buffer moralong oa hau oa thepa ka lebaka la liphetoho tse tsoelang pele tsa tsela le tšubuhlellano e ka bang teng ea kou.

Lekola Leano la Khoebo la US: Bakeng sa bareki ba nang le monyetla oa ho bona 'maraka oa US, lula u tseba ka tlhahlobo ea litefiso tsa Karolo ea 232, kaha liphetoho tse ka bang teng li ka ama litheko tsa liphaephe tsa tšepe le phallo ea khoebo H2 2026.

Sanonpipe: Molekane oa Hao ea Tšepahalang Nakong ea Lipotoloho tsa 'Maraka

Jwalo ka mofani wa ditshebeletso tsa diphaephe tsa tshepe tse fanang ka tsohle, re ikemiseditse ho ba molekane ya tshepahalang ka ho fetisisa lefapheng la diindasteri la maemo a hodimo lefatsheng. Bokgoni ba rona bo kenyeletsa:

Thepa e Tebileng, e Fapaneng: Hoo e ka bang lithane tse 200,000 tsa liphaephe tsa tšepe tse se nang moedi (likereiti tsa tšepe ea khabone le tšepe ea alloy), hammoho le lithane tse 10,000 tsa liphaephe tse tjheseletsoeng, liphaephe tse sekwere, liphaephe tse khutlonnetsepa, le liphaephe tsa tšepe e sa ruseng tse fumanehang setokong, li loketse ho romelloa kapele.

Ketane ea Phepelo ea Khabone e Tlase: Tšebelisano-'moho le lifeme tse fanang ka tlhahiso ea EAF, litekanyo tse phahameng tsa litšila (20-25%), le matla a tala (30-50%), tse tšehetsoang ke tlaleho ea data ea khabone e lumellanang le CBAM le netefatso ea motho oa boraro.

Tšehetso ea Tšebeletso e Felletseng: Ho tloha ho fumaneng le ho netefatsa thepa e tala ho isa ho seheng, ho kenya khoele, ho koahela, ho paka le ho romela thepa - re nolofatsa ketane ea hau eohle ea phepelo ho pholletsa le libaka tsa lefats'e.

Ho Finyella Lefatše: Sehlopha sa rona se nang le boiphihlelo sa ho romela thepa kantle ho naha se sebetsana le thepa ea thepa, litokomane (ho kenyeletsoa le mangolo a MTC, mangolo a tšimoloho), le tumello ea lekhetho bakeng sa thepa e romelloang lefatšeng ka bophara.

Ikopanye le sehlopha sa rona bekeng ena ho phethela liodara tsa hau tsa pele ho matsatsi a phomolo, kopa litheko tsa hajoale, kapa buisana ka leano la hau la theko la kotara ea bobeli le kotara ea boraro ea 2026. Re mona ho u thusa ho tsamaea 'marakeng ka kholiseho.