La 24 Mmesa, 2026 - Tlhahlobo ea 'Maraka oa Pele ho Matsatsi a Phomolo le Tebello ea Kotara ea Bobeli

Ha re kena bekeng ea boraro ea Mmesa 2026, phaephe ea tšepe e se nang sekoli lefatšeng ka bophara, phaephe ea tšepe e kopantsoeng, le 'maraka oa likarolo tse se nang sekoli li ntse li tsamaea ka morethetho o ikhethang: ts'ebetso e matla ea kotara ea bobeli e leka-lekaneng khahlanong le khefu ea ts'ebetso e atamelang bakeng sa matsatsi a phomolo a Letsatsi la Mots'eanong libakeng tsa bohlokoa tsa tlhahiso. Ha ho setse beke e le 'ngoe ka Mmesa, bareki ba etsa liqeto tsa ho qetela tsa ho fumana libaka tsa tlhahiso pele ho khutso ea matsatsi a phomolo, ha ka nako e ts'oanang ba ntse ba nahana ka likhohlano tse sa feleng tsa lipolotiki Bochabela bo Hare.

Ntlafatso ea Geopolitical: Strait of Hormuz - Tikoloho ea Kotsi e Laoloang

Khohlano ea sesole e amang Iran, Isiraele le United States e kene mokhahlelong oa tsitsipano e laoloang, 'me melaoana e thehiloeng joale ke mokhoa oa ho tsamaisa thepa ea khoebo.

Mesebetsi ea Leoatleng e Tloaelehile: Strait of Hormuz e ntse e le tlas'a mekhoa e ntlafalitsoeng ea ho felehetsa likepe tsa metsing, empa ha ho na keketseho e kholo e etsahetseng libekeng tsa morao tjena. Mekhahlelo ea likepe e bolokile tefiso e eketsehileng ea thepa ea $1,000–$3,000 ka setshelo bakeng sa thepa e eang Koung, ka tieho ea lipalangoang e nkang matsatsi a 10-12 ha e bapisoa le kemiso ea pele ho ntoa.

Phallo ea ho Romelloa ha Linaha ka Seleteng: Linaha tsa Lekhotla la Tšebelisano-'moho la Kou (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain) - tseo ka kakaretso li etsang karolo e fetang 26% ea lipeipi tse romelloang kantle ho China - li ntse li tsoela pele ho fumana lipeipi tsa tšepe tse romelloang ntle ho tšenyo, leha moralo oa thepa o hloka nako e tsitsitseng ea ho boloka thepa.

Ho Tsitsisa Theko ea Matla: Litheko tsa oli li lutse ho $78–$85/barrel, li fokotsa khatello ea litšenyehelo hang-hang tlhahisong ea tšepe ea arc ea motlakase ha li ntse li boloka mokatong o tšehetsang bakeng sa theko ea phaephe ea tšepe ea carbon le phaephe ea tšepe ea alloy.

Tšusumetso ea Matsatsi a Phomolo a Letsatsi la Mots'eanong: Ho Koaloa ha Fensetere ea Taelo ea Pele ho Matsatsi a Phomolo

Matsatsi a phomolo a tlang a Letsatsi la Mots'eanong (la 1-5 Mots'eanong) a hlahisa khefu e khutšoanyane empa e le ea bohlokoa ts'ebetsong ea tlhahiso le ea thepa ho pholletsa le Chaena. Mokhoa ona oa selemo le selemo o na le litlamorao tse ka boleloang esale pele:

Kemiso ea Tlhahiso: Mills e tla emisa ts'ebetso bakeng sa matsatsi a 5 a phomolo ea naha, 'me tlhahiso e tla khutlela ho matla a felletseng ka la 7-8 Mots'eanong. Liodara tse tla etsoa kamora la 25 Mmesa ka kakaretso li tla sebetsoa potolohong ea tlhahiso ea kamora matsatsi a phomolo.

Kemiso ea Litšebelisano: Ts'ebetso ea koung e tla lieha nakong ea beke ea matsatsi a phomolo. Sebaka sa likepe bakeng sa thepa e tlohang mafelong a Mmesa se se se phetheloa.

Fensetere ea Theko: Bakeng sa bareki ba hlokang liphaephe tse se nang sekoli, liphaephe tse kopantsoeng, kapa likarolo tsa sebopeho bakeng sa ho fana ka projeke mafelong a Mots'eanong kapa mathoasong a Phuptjane, beke ena e emela monyetla oa ho qetela oa ho fumana libaka tsa tlhahiso ea pele ho matsatsi a phomolo.

Ntlafatso ea 'Maraka oa Kotara ea Bobeli ea 2026: Metheo e Tsitsitseng e nang le Liphetoho tsa Libaka

Kotara ea bobeli e ntse e tsoela pele ho bonts'a maemo a 'maraka a leka-lekaneng ka mekhoa e hlakileng ea tlhoko ea libaka.

Tlhahiso le Phepelo

Lifeme ho pholletsa le Asia li sebetsa ka tšebeliso ea matla a 75-80%, ka tlhahiso e tsitsitseng ea liphaephe tsa tšepe ea khabone, liphaephe tsa tšepe ea alloy, le liphaephe tse se nang mohele tsa tšepe e sa hloekang.

Linako tsa ho etella pele li lula li tsitsitse: matsatsi a 30-40 bakeng saASTM A106 Kereiti BleAPI 5L GRB, Matsatsi a 45-55 bakeng samotsoako oa ASTM A335liphaephe tse se nang mohele tse letotong le tse bophara bo boholo.

Litšenyehelo tsa thepa e tala - li-billet tsa tšepe ea khabone, li-coil tsa HR, le likarolo tsa alloying - li ntse li le moeling ho pholletsa le Mmesa, li fana ka monyetla oa ho bolela esale pele litheko.

Bakhanni ba Tlhokeho ka Lekala

Mesebetsi ea Hona Joale ea Lekala Lihlahisoa tsa Bohlokoa tse Batloang

Oli le Khase li tšoarella, li na le oli e ngataAPI 5L X52Phaephe ea mohala ea /X60/X65, OCTG, sekoahelo, tube

Tlhahiso ea Motlakase e Tsitsitseng, e tsamaisoang ke tlhokomelo ea ASTM A213 T11/T22,ASTM A335 P11/P22/Liphaephe tsa boiler tsa P91

Ho hola ha meralo ea motheo, haholo-holo Asia Boroa-bochabelaEN 10210 S355J2H, Likarolo tsa EN 10219, lipeipi tse sekwere, phaephe ea ho bokella

Liphaephe tse se nang mohele tse mahareng tsa indasteri, tse hokahantsoeng le tlhahiso, liphaephe tsa mechini, liphaephe tsa silindara ea hydraulic

Tebello ea Litheko bakeng sa Kotara ea Bobeli ea 2026

Litheko tsa Liphaephe tse se Nang Seam: Ho lebelletsoe hore li tla lula li tsitsitse ho fihlela ka Mots'eanong, ka liphetoho tse nyane tse ka nyolohang ka Phuptjane haeba litšenyehelo tsa eneji li nyoloha.

Tokelo ea Lithuso tsa Geopolitical: Lithomello tse eang Bochabela bo Hare li ntse li tsoela pele ho ba le tefo ea 10-15% ha li bapisoa le libaka tse ling.

Litaba tsa morao tjena tsa Indasteri: Bokhoni, Khoebo le Theknoloji

Lintlafatso tse 'maloa mafelong a Mmesa li bopa boemo ba tlholisano:

Bokgoni bo Botjha ba Diphaephe tse se Nang Mohele tsa EAF Inthaneteng: Sehlopha sa bobedi sa tshepe sa China se qadile tlhahiso setsing se setjha sa diphaephe tse se nang mohele tsa motlakase (EAF), se eketsa ditone tse 250,000 tsa bokgoni ba selemo le selemo ba ho sebedisa khabone e tlase. Sena se atolosa ho fumaneha ha diphaephe tse se nang mohele tse se nang mohele tse nang le dikarolelano tse phahameng tsa ditshila le tshebediso ya matla a matala - e leng ntho ya bohlokwa haholo ho bareki ba Europe ba tobaneng le ditlhoko tsa CBAM.

Netefatso ea CBAM ea Matlafala: Khomishene ea Europe e phatlalalitse liteko tse ntlafalitsoeng tsa litokomane bakeng sa data ea carbon footprint mabapi le thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha ea tšepe, ho tloha ka la 1 Mots'eanong. Barekisi ba thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha ba tlameha ho netefatsa hore litlaleho tsa mesi e tsoang kantle ho naha tse ikhethileng li nepahetse ebile lia netefatsoa.

Phaephe ea Meralo ea Motheo ea Bochabela bo Hare: Merero e mengata e meholo ea phetisetso ea metsi le kaho e phatlalalitsoe Saudi Arabia le UAE, e leng se entseng hore ho be le tlhoko e tsoelang pele ea liphaephe tse tšetsoeng ka bophara bo boholo le likarolo tse se nang letho tsa sebopeho bakeng sa kabo ea H2 2026.

Leseli la Boitsebiso: Nako ea Tlhokeho ea Kotara ea Bobeli le Linako tsa Ketelo Pele

Kopo ea Senotlolo sa Kereiti ea Boitsebiso Nako ea Kemiso ea Q2 Mokhoa oa Tlhokahalo

Liphaephe tsa oli le khase tsa API 5L X52/X60/X65 matsatsi a 35-45. E tšoarella, e na le bophahamo bo phahameng.

Tšebeletso ea mocheso o phahameng ea ASTM A106 Kereiti ea B/C matsatsi a 30-40 E tsitsitseng, e thehiloe ka bophara

ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91 Liboiler tsa tlhahiso ea motlakase matsatsi a 45-55 Lipotoloho tse tsitsitseng le tsa tlhokomelo

ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Tikoloho tse senyang matsatsi a 40-50 E mahareng, e ikgethileng ho projeke

EN 10210 S355J2H (e phethiloeng ka mocheso) Meralo ea meaho matsatsi a 35-45 Ho hola, meralo ea motheo

EN 10219 S355J2H(e entsoeng ka serame) Meaho ea mechini matsatsi a 30-40 E tsitsitse, e fumaneha haholo

Tšebeletso ea mocheso o tlase oa ASTM A333 Kereiti ea 6 matsatsi a 40-55 Niche, merero e ikhethileng

Litlhahiso tsa Maano a Theko bakeng sa Beke ea Pele ho Matsatsi a Phomolo

Kaha matsatsi a phomolo a Letsatsi la Mots'eanong a ntse a atamela, re khothaletsa liketso tse latelang:

Qetella Litaelo tse Potlakileng tsa Q2 Bekeng ena: Bakeng sa litlhoko tsa phaephe e se nang sekoli, phaephe ea motsoako, kapa phaephe e bophara bo boholo e hlokahalang bakeng sa ho tlisoa ha thepa mafelong a Mots'eanong kapa Phuptjane, beha liodara pele ho la 25 Mmesa ho fumana kabo ea tlhahiso ea pele ho matsatsi a phomolo.

Rera Linako tsa ho Kena Kamora Matsatsi a Phomolo: Liodara tse behiloeng nakong ea beke ea matsatsi a phomolo (Mots'eanong 1-5) li tla sebetsoa ho qala ka la 6 Mots'eanong. Nahana ka khefu ena lipalo-palong tsa hau tsa ho tlisa thepa.

LokisetsaCBAMLitokomane Pele ho Nako: Bakeng sa thepa e romelloang Europe, etsa bonnete ba hore morekisi oa hau oa liphaephe tsa tšepe o fana ka liphutheloana tse felletseng tsa data ea carbon footprint, ho kenyeletsoa le litifikeiti tsa matla a tala le netefatso ea karolelano ea lithōle, nako e telele pele ho thomello.

Thepa e Sireletsehileng bakeng sa Libaka tsa Kou: Bakeng sa liphaephe tsa mohala le thepa ea OCTG ho ea Bochabela bo Hare, boloka libeke tse 2-3 tsa nako ea buffer moralong oa hau oa thepa ka lebaka la liphetoho tse tsoelang pele tsa tsela.

Sanonpipe: Molekane oa Hao ka Merethetho ea 'Maraka

Jwalo ka mofani wa ditshebeletso tsa diphaephe tsa tshepe tse fanang ka tsohle, re ikemiseditse ho ba molekane ya tshepahalang ka ho fetisisa lefapheng la diindasteri la maemo a hodimo lefatsheng. Bokgoni ba rona bo kenyeletsa:

Setoko se Felletseng: Hoo e ka bang lithane tse 200,000 tsa liphaephe tsa tšepe tse se nang mohele (khabone le motsoako), hammoho le lithane tse 10,000 tsa liphaephe tse tjheseletsoeng, liphaephe tse sekwere/tse khutlonnetsepa, le liphaephe tsa tšepe e sa ruseng.

Ketane ea Phepelo ea Khabone e Tlase: Tšebelisano-'moho le lifeme tse fanang ka tlhahiso ea EAF, litekanyo tse phahameng tsa litšila (20-25%), le matla a tala (30-50%), tse tšehetsoang ke tlaleho ea data ea khabone e lumellanang le CBAM.

Tšehetso ea Tšebeletso e Felletseng: Ho tloha netefatsong ea thepa e tala ho ea ho liphutheloana, ho koahela le ho romela thepa - re nolofatsa ketane ea hau ea phepelo ho pholletsa le libaka tsa lefats'e.

Ikopanye le sehlopha sa rona bekeng ena ho phethela liodara tsa hau tsa pele ho matsatsi a phomolo kapa ho buisana ka leano la hau la theko la kotara ea bobeli ea 2026.