La 16 Mmesa, 2026 - Tlhahlobo ea Indasteri le Pono ea 'Maraka

Ha re kena bekeng ea bobeli ea Mmesa 2026, phaephe ea tšepe e se nang sekoli lefatšeng ka bophara, phaephe ea tšepe e kopantsoeng, le 'maraka oa likarolo tse se nang sekoli tsa sebopeho li ntse li tsamaea sebakeng se hlalosoang ke tsitsipano e tsoelang pele ea lipolotiki Bochabela bo Hare le tikoloho ea tlhoko e tsitsitseng. Ha kotara ea bobeli e se e ntse e tsoela pele, bareki le bafepedi ba ntse ba lokisa maano a thehiloeng linneteng tsa thepa, bakhanni ba tlhoko ea libaka, le liphetoho tsa litheko tse ntseng li fetoha.

Ntlafatso ea Geopolitical: Boemo ba Khohlo ea Hormuz boa Fetoha

Khohlano ea sesole e amang Iran, Iseraele le United States e ntse e tsoela pele ho susumetsa litsela tsa khoebo tsa lefats'e le limmaraka tsa eneji ha Mmesa o ntse o tsoela pele.

Melao ea Tšireletso ea Leoatle: Strait of Hormuz e ntse e le sebaka se laoloang sa kotsi, 'me lipatroli tsa machaba tsa likepe tsa ntoa li se li felehetsa likepe tsa khoebo. Leha sena se fokolitse kotsi ea litlhaselo tse tobileng, mela ea likepe e boloka likhetho tsa ho fetola tsela le litefiso tse eketsehileng tsa thepa tsa $1,200–$3,500 ka setshelo bakeng sa thepa e eang Koung.

Tšusumetso ea Thepa ea Libaka: Linaha tsa Lekhotla la Tšebelisano-'moho la Kou (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain) - tseo ka kakaretso li ikarabellang bakeng sa ho feta 26% ea thepa e romelloang kantle ho liphaephe tsa Chaena - li ntse li tsoela pele ho ba le linako tse telele tsa ho etella pele tsa libeke tse 2-3 bakeng sa thepa e kenang ea tšepe.

Ho Tsitsisa Mmaraka wa Matla: Ditheko tsa oli di tsitse ho tloha ho $80–$88/barrel, di fokotsa kgatello ya ditjeo hanghang tlhahisong ya tshepe ya arc ya motlakase ha ka nako e ts'oanang di ntse di boloka fatshe le tiile tlasa phaephe ya tshepe ya khabone, phaephe ya tshepe ya alloy, le theko ya phaephe e se nang moedi ya tshepe e sa ruseng.

Metheo ea 'Maraka ea Kotara ea Bobeli ea 2026: Phepelo e Leka-lekaneng le Tlhoko ea Libaka

Kotara ea bobeli e ntse e bopeha e le nako ea metheo e tsitsitseng e nang le mekhoa e ikhethang ea tlhoko ea libaka.

Phepelo le Tlhahiso

Lifeme ho pholletsa le Asia li sebetsa ka tšebeliso ea matla a 75-80%, ka ho tenyetseha ho lekaneng ho amohela ho feto-fetoha ha palo ea liodara.

Linako tsa ho etella pele bakeng sa limaraka tse tloaelehileng tsa liphaephe tse se nang sekoli li lula li tsitsitse: matsatsi a 30-40 bakeng sa ASTM A106 Kereiti B le API 5L B, le matsatsi a 45-60 bakeng saASTM A335letoto la li-alloy le liphaephe tse se nang mohele tse bophara bo boholo.

Litšenyehelo tsa thepa e tala - ho kenyeletsoa le li-billet tsa tšepe ea khabone le likarolo tsa alloying - li tsitsitse kamora ho feto-fetoha ha pele ho Q1, e leng se fanang ka tšehetso ea litšenyehelo tse ka lebelloang esale pele.

Bakhanni ba Tlhokahalo ka Libaka

Lihlahisoa tsa Bohlokoa tsa Bakhanni ba Tlhokahalo ea Motheo ea Libaka

Bochabela bo Hare le Asia Bohareng Matšolo a ho cheka a mafolofolo, merero ea lipeipiAPI 5L X52Phaephe ea mohala ea /X60/X65, OCTG, sekoahelo, tube

Ntlafatso ea meralo ea motheo ea Asia Boroa-bochabela, kaho ea meaho Liphaephe tsa meaho, lipeipi tse sekwere, likarolo tse sekoti tse khutlonnetsepa (RHS), phaephe ea ho bokella

Tlhokomelo ea lifeme tsa motlakase tsa Europe, phetoho ea matla Liphaephe tsa boiler, liphaephe tsa phapanyetsano ea mocheso, liphaephe tse se nang mokelikeli tse nang le khabone e tlase (tse lumellanang le CBAM)

Tlhokomelo ea indasteri ea Amerika Leboea, ho nkeloa sebaka ha lipeipiASTM A106 B/C, ASTM A333 Kereiti ya 6 (mocheso o tlase)

Tebello ea Litheko bakeng sa kotara ea bobeli ea 2026

Litheko tsa Liphaephe tse se Nang Seam: Ho lebelletsoe hore li tla lula li le maemong a fapaneng ka har'a sehlopha sa 3-5% ho fihlela kotara ea bobeli, li tšehelitsoe ke thepa e tala e tsitsitseng le tlhoko e tsitsitseng.

Litheko tsa Liphaephe tse Welded: Ho lebelletsoe botsitso bo tšoanang, ka liphetoho tse nyane tse ka bang teng tse ipapisitseng le metsamao ea litheko tsa coil ea HR (coil e phutholohileng ka ho chesang).

Premium ea Geopolitical: Litšenyehelo tsa thepa bakeng sa thepa e eang Bochabela bo Hare li ntse li phahame ka 10-15% ha li bapisoa le maemo a pele ho ntoa.

Litaba tsa morao tjena tsa indasteri: Katoloso ea bokhoni le Tlhokomelo ea tšepe e tala

Lintlafatso tse 'maloa mathoasong a Mmesa li totobatsa boemo bo ntseng bo fetoha ba tlholisano:

Bokgoni bo Botjha ba EAF Asia: Sehlopha se seholo sa tshepe sa China se phatlalalitse ho kenngwa tshebetsong ha mohala o motjha wa tlhahiso ya diphaephe tse se nang moedi tsa motlakase (EAF), o eketsang ditone tse 300,000 tsa bokgoni ba selemo le selemo. Katoloso ena e shebane le diphaephe tse se nang moedi tse nang le khabone e tlase tse sebedisang dikarolelano tse hodimo tsa ditshila le matla a matala, tse shebaneng le Yuropa le tsa lehae.mebaraka.

Matsatsi a ho Latela Melao ya CBAM: Khomishene ya Yuropa e tiisitse hore kotara ya bobedi ya 2026 e tla bona netefatso e eketsehileng ya data ya kgase ya khabone bakeng sa dihlahiswa tsa tshepe tse tswang kantle ho naha. Barekisi ba thepa ba tlameha ho fana ka ditlaleho tsa mesi e tswang kantle ho naha tse ikgethang ho tse ding kapa ba tobane le dikotlo tse ka bang teng.

Ditumello tsa Meralo ya Motheo: Mebuso e mmalwa ya Asia Borwa-botjhabela e amohetse diporojeke tse ntjha tsa dipalangwang le phetiso ya metsi, e leng se entseng tlhoko e eketsehileng ya diphaephe tsa meaho le diphaephe tse welditsweng ka bophara bo boholo bakeng sa H2 2026.

Tsepamiso ea Lintho: Likereiti tsa Bohlokoa bakeng sa Kotara ea Bobeli ea 2026

Bareki ba rerang litlhoko tsa Q2 ba lokela ho beha pele litlhaloso tsena tse batloang haholo:

Kopo ea Sehlopha sa Boitsebiso Nako ea Kemiso Q2 Mokhoa oa Tlhokahalo

API 5L X52/X60/X65 Liphaephe tsa oli le khase matsatsi a 35-45 Li tšoarella, bophahamo bo phahameng

Tšebeletso ea mocheso o phahameng ea ASTM A106 Kereiti ea B/C matsatsi a 30-40 E tsitsitseng, e thehiloe ka bophara

ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91 Liboiler tsa tlhahiso ea motlakase matsatsi a 45-60 Li tsitsitse ho tloha tlhokomelong

ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Tikoloho tse senyang matsatsi a 40-50 E mahareng, e ikgethileng

EN 10210 S355J2HMeralo ea meaho matsatsi a 35-45 Ho hola, meralo ea motheo

EN 10219 S355J2HMeaho ea mechini matsatsi a 30-40 E tsitsitse, e fumaneha haholo

Tšebeletso ea mocheso o tlase oa ASTM A333 Kereiti ea 6 matsatsi a 40-55 Niche, e ikhethileng bakeng sa projeke

Litlhahiso tsa Maano a Theko

Ho latela maemo a hajwale a mmaraka, re kgothaletsa diketso tse latelang bakeng sa kotara ya bobedi ya 2026:

Libaka tse Sireletsehileng tsa Tlhahiso ea Q2 Hona Joale: Kaha lifeme li sebetsa ka matla a tsitsitseng, ho beha liodara tsa liphaephe tsa tšepe ea alloy le liphaephe tse se nang sekoli tse kholo libekeng tse 2-3 tse tlang ho eletsoa ho netefatsa hore lifensetere tsa ho tlisa thepa lia khethoa.

Moralo oa Maemo a Tlase a Thepa: Bakeng sa thepa e eang Koung, nahana ka libeke tse 2-3 tsa nako ea buffer 'me u netefatse merero ea ho tsamaisa thepa le morekisi oa hau oa liphaephe tsa tšepe pele u phethela kemiso ea ho tlisa thepa.

Lokisetsa Litokomane tsa ho Latela Melao tsa Europe: Haeba o fana ka thepa mererong ea Europe, kopa lintlha tsa carbon footprint, litifikeiti tsa matla a tala, le litlaleho tsa karolelano ea litšila ho mofani oa hau esale pele ho netefatsa hore CBAM e loketse.

Nahana ka Sebaka sa Thepa: Ka litheko tse tsitsitseng le phepelo e leka-lekaneng, bareki ba ka nahana ka ho haha ​​​​li-stock tsa polokeho bakeng sa maemo a holimo a thekiso joalo ka ASTM A106 Kereiti ea B le API 5L X52 ho itšireletsa khahlanong le litšitiso life kapa life tsa bohareng ba Q2.

Sanonpipe: Molekane oa Hao bakeng sa Katleho ea Kotara ea Bobeli ea 2026

Jwalo ka mofani wa ditshebeletso tsa diphaephe tsa tshepe tse fanang ka tsohle, re ikemiseditse ho ba molekane ya tshepahalang ka ho fetisisa lefapheng la diindasteri la maemo a hodimo lefatsheng. Bokgoni ba rona bo kenyeletsa:

Thepa e Tebileng: Hoo e ka bang lithane tse 200,000 tsa liphaephe tsa tšepe tse se nang moedi (khabone le motsoako), hammoho le lithane tse 10,000 tsa liphaephe tse tjheseletsoeng, liphaephe tse sekwere/tse khutlonnetsepa, le liphaephe tsa tšepe e sa ruseng.

Ketane ea Phepelo ea Khabone e Tlase: Tšebelisano-'moho le lifeme tse fanang ka matla a tala, litekanyo tse phahameng tsa litšila, le tlhahiso ea EAF, tse tšehelitsoeng ke tlaleho ea data ea khabone e lumellanang le CBAM.

Tšehetso ea Tšebeletso e Felletseng: Ho tloha netefatsong ea thepa e tala ho ea ho sephutheloana, ho koahela le ho romella thepa - re nolofatsa ketane ea hau ea phepelo.

Ikopanye le sehlopha sa rona kajeno ho buisana ka leano la hau la theko la kotara ea bobeli ea 2026, kopa litheko tsa hajoale, kapa u fumane tataiso e tobileng mabapi le ho tsamaea tikolohong ea hajoale ea 'maraka.