La 12 Tlhakubele, 2026 - Tlhahlobo ea Indasteri le Tebello ea Maano bakeng sa Libeke tsa ho Qetela tsa Kotara ea Pele

Ha re kena bekeng ea bobeli ea Hlakubele, re setse ka nako e ka tlase ho khoeli e le 'ngoe kotara ea pele ea 2026, phaephe ea tšepe e se nang sekoli lefatšeng ka bophara, phaephe ea tšepe e kopantsoeng, le 'maraka oa karolo ea meaho e se nang letho li tobane le phephetso e habeli: tsitsipano e ntseng e eketseha ea lipolotiki Bochabela bo Hare le ts'ebetsong e felletseng ea ts'ebetso e ncha ea Europe.mokoallo oa khoebo o motalabakeng sa thepa e tswang kantle ho naha ya tshepe. Bakeng sa bafepedi le bareki ba shebaneng le mmaraka wa Yuropa, ho utlwisisa moo matla ana a kopanang teng jwale ho bohlokwa.

Ntlafatso ea Lipolotiki: Tšitiso ea Khohlo ea Hormuz ea Matlafala

Ntoa ea sesole e amang Iran, Iseraele le United States e ntse e tsoela pele ho ama litsela tsa khoebo tsa lefats'e le litšenyehelo tsa matla.

Sebaka sa ho Koaheloa ke Thepa: Khohlo ea Hormuz e ntse e le kotsi e kholo, ka mela e meholo ea likepe e lefisang litefiso tse eketsehileng tsa $1,500–$4,000 ka setshelo le likepe tse khutlisetsang tsela, e leng se eketsang matsatsi a 10-15 bakeng sa linako tsa lipalangoang bakeng sa thepa e eang Koung ea Persia.

Ho pepesehela Libaka: Leha thepa e romelloang ka kotloloho ho ea Iran e le nyane haholo, linaha tse tšeletseng tsa Lekhotla la Tšebelisano-'moho la Kou (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain) ka kakaretso li etsa karolo ea 26.3% ea thepa e romelloang ka ntle ea liphaephe tsa Chaena—kaofela li hloka ho feta har'a mochophoro.

Ho Susumetsa Litšenyehelo tsa Matla: Litheko tsa oli li ntse li leba ho $100 ka barrel, e leng se eketsang litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso bakeng sa ho etsa tšepe ea arc ea motlakase e sebelisang matla a mangata 'me se eketsa khatello ea litheko tsa liphaephe tsa tšepe ea carbon, liphaephe tsa tšepe ea alloy, le liphaephe tse se nang mohele tsa tšepe e sa hloekang.

Moralo o Mocha oa Khoebo e Tala oa Europe: CBAM le ka Nģ'ane ho moo

Bakeng sa barekisi ba kantle ho naha ba shebaneng le 'maraka oa Europe, 2026 e tšoaea selemo sa bohlokoa. Mokhoa oa ho Lokisa Moeli oa Khabone (CBAM) oa EU joale o sebetsa ka botlalo, o fetola ka botlalo tsela eo thepa e kenang ka har'a liphaephe tsa tšepe e laoloang ka eona.

Litlhoko tsa CBAM bakeng sa Barekisi ba Tšepe ba tsoang kantle ho naha

Litlamo tsa Tlaleho: Barekisi ba thepa ba tlameha ho phatlalatsa mesi e kenelletseng ea liphaephe tsa tšepe tse se nang sekoli tse tsoang kantle ho naha, liphaephe tse tjheselitsoeng, le liphaephe tsa sebopeho, tse akaretsang mesi e tobileng (Sebopeho sa 1) le e sa tobang (Sebopeho sa 2).

Theko ea Setifikeiti: Mesi e kotsi e fetang litekanyetso tsa EU e hloka hore ho rekoe litifikeiti tsa CBAM ka theko e amanang le litheko tsa khabone tsa EU ETS (hajoale ke €80-100/tCO₂).

Nako ea ho Latela Melao: Mokhoa o fetoha ho tloha ho tlalehong feela ho ea phetohong e felletseng ea lichelete ka 2026, ka likotlo bakeng sa ho se latele melao.

Morero oa Indasteri oa Tumellano e Tala ea EU

Molao oa Indasteri ea Net-Zero: O beha sepheo sa hore mahlale a maano (ho kenyeletsoa le tšepe) a fihlelle 40% ea tlhoko ea EU ka tlhahiso ea lehae ka 2030, a khothaletsa thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha ka mehato e netefalitsoeng ea carbon e tlase.

Melao ea ho Dutla ha Khabone: Lihlahisoa tse tsoang linaheng tse nang le maano a tlelaemete a sa shebahaleng haholo li tobana le tlhahlobo e ntseng e eketseha le liphetoho tsa meeli.

Karabelo ea Indasteri ea Liphaephe tsa Tšepe ea Chaena: Tsela ea ho Fokotsa Khabone ka 30%

Ka ho arabela melao ea Europe le lipheo tsa lehae tsa khabone e habeli, bahlahisi ba ka sehloohong ba liphaephe tsa tšepe tse se nang sekoli ba Chaena ba potlakisa ho tlosoa ha khabone. Ho latela lisebelisoa tsa morao tjena tsa koetliso ea indasteri, tsela ea ho fihlela phokotso ea khabone ea 30%+ e kenyelletsa motsoako oa mahlale a latelang:

Litsela tsa Bohlokoa tsa Tekheniki

Phetoho ea Sebopeho sa Matla

Phetolo ea Matla a Tala: Ho eketsa karolo ea matla a moea le a letsatsi tlhahisong. Maiteko a Tianjin Pipe a fokolitse likhase tse ntšang CO₂ selemo le selemo ka lithane tse 220,000. Ho fihlela matla a 50%+ a matala ho ka fokotsa haholo khabone ea liphaephe tsa tšepe tse se nang moedi.

Tšepe ea Haedrojene: Phokotso e tobileng e thehiloeng ho haedrojene e hlaha e le theknoloji e ncha, e khonang ho fokotsa matla a mosi o tsoang ho karolo ea boraro ea lits'ebetso tsa setso.

Ntlafatso ea Ts'ebetso

Mokhoa o Mokhutšoanyane oa EAF: Ho fetoha ho tloha ts'ebetsong e telele ea ontong ea oksijene ea motheo ea blast ontong (BF-BOF) ho ea ts'ebetsong e khutšoanyane ea ontong ea arc ea motlakase (EAF) ho sebelisoa tšepe e senyehileng ho ka fokotsa mesi e tsoang ka 60-75%. Tlhahiso ea liphaephe tse se nang sekoli tsa Baosteel ho sebelisoa li-billet tsa EAF e fihlella karolo ea boraro ea mesi e tsoang litseleng tsa converter.

Karolelano e Eketsehileng ea Likhechana: Keketseho e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe ea tšebeliso ea likhechana ea 10% e fokotsa tlhahiso ea khabone ka hoo e ka bang 15%.

Tsamaiso ea Matla a Dijithale

Li-platform tse bohlale tsa eneji li nolofalletsa ho beha leihlo le ho ntlafatsa ka nako ea sebele. Sehlopha sa Shandong Guangfu se fihletse poloko ea eneji ea 15%+ ka ntlafatso e kopaneng ea tikoloho.

Ho Kenngwa Tshebetsong ho Kgothaletswang ka Mehato

Nako ea ho Kenya Ts'ebetsong Phokotso ea Mosi o Tsoang Tseleng

Matla a Tala (30%+) 8-12% Nako e khuts'oane (lilemo tse 1-3)

Karolelano ea Likhechana (25%+) 10-15% Nako e khuts'oane (lilemo tse 1-3)

Tšebeliso e Botle ea Matla a Feteletseng 5-8% Nako e Khutšoanyane (lilemo tse 1-3)

Matla a Tala (50%+) 15-20% Nako e Bohareng (lilemo tse 3-5)

DRI e thehiloeng ho haeterojene 30-50% Nako e mahareng (lilemo tse 3-5)

Tsela e Felletseng ea EAF Scrap 60%+ ea Nako e Bohareng (lilemo tse 3-5)

CCUS >90% Nako e telele (lilemo tse 5-10)

Karolo e Ncha ea Khamphani ea Khoebo: Borokho ba Data ba Carbon le Moemeli oa Tharollo

Jwalo ka ha ho totobaditswe thupelong ya moraorao tjena ya mmaraka wa Yuropa, karolo ya morekisi wa diphaephe tsa tshepe e ntse e fetoha ho tloha ho mofani wa dihlahiswa ho ya ho moeletsi wa tsamaiso ya khabone.

Bokhoni ba Bohlokoa bakeng sa Katleho ea 'Maraka oa Europe

Ponaletso ea Lintlha tsa Khabone

Ho boloka polokelo e qaqileng ea khabone ea fektheri ka setifikeiti sa matla a tala, lirekoto tsa karolelano ea lithōle, le lintlha tsa tšebeliso ea matla a tlhahiso

Ho fana ka litlaleho tsa khabone e ikhethileng tse ipapisitseng le lintlha tsa tlhahiso ea 'nete

Likamano tsa Seleishene sa Khabone e Tlase

Ho theha manane a bafepedi ba khethiloeng ba behang pele li-feme tse nang le matla a tala a ≥30%, karolelano ea litšila ea ≥20%, kapa lits'ebetso tse felletseng tsa EAF

Ho sireletsa bokgoni ba tlhahiso e tala bo inehetseng bakeng sa bareki ba Europe

Tšehetso ea ho Latela Melao

Ho fana ka dithempleite tsa tlaleho ya data ya khabone tse tsamaellanang le CBAM tse netefaditsweng ke ditheo tsa mokga wa boraro

Ho fana ka keletso mabapi le litsela tse ntle tsa botekgeniki (mohlala, EAF+matla a matala bakeng sa phokotso ya 60%+, matla a mangata+a matala bakeng sa phokotso ya 25-30%)

Tsoelo-pele e Bontšitsoeng

Merero ea liteko e sebelisang li-billet tsa setofo sa motlakase + motlakase o motala bakeng sa tlhahiso ea liphaephe tsa mohala e fihletse likhase tse ntšitsoeng ka 0.65 tCO₂/tonne feela—70% ka tlase ho karolelano ea indasteri ea lithane tse 2.2.

Tšebelisano-'moho le lifeme tse khonang ho fana ka motlakase o hloekileng ka kotloloho joale li ikarabella bakeng sa 40% ea bokhoni ba tlhahiso, 'me "Mohala oa Lihlahisoa oa ho Fokotsa Khabone oa 30%" o shebane le phokotso e eketsehileng ea 10-15% bakeng sa litheko tsa H2 2026.

Tsepamiso ea Lintho: Limaraka tsa Bohlokoa bakeng sa Merero ea Europe

Bareki ba Europe ba lokela ho beha pele bafepedi ba kgonang ho fana ka mefuta e netefaditsweng ya dihlahiswa tsena tse batlwang haholo e nang le khabone e tlase:

Sehlopha sa Thepa Tšebeliso e Tloaelehileng Tsela e Tlase ea Khabone

API 5L X52/X60/X65Liphaephe tsa oli le khase EAF + matla a tala (60%+ phokotso)

ASTM A106 Kereiti B/C Tšebeletso ea mocheso o phahameng Karolelano e phahameng ea litšila + matla a matala (25-30%)

ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91Liboiler tsa tlhahiso ea motlakase DRI e thehiloeng ho hydrogen (e hlahang)

EN 10210 S355J2HLikarolo tse se nang letho tsa meaho Matla a matala + ntlafatso ea likhechana

ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Libaka tse senyang EAF e sa hloekang le e sebelisitsoeng hape

Litlamorao tsa Leano bakeng sa Theko ea Kotara ea Bobeli ea 2026

Kaha kotara ea pele e fela khoeling ena, nako ea ho fumana libaka tsa tlhahiso ea kotara ea bobeli e ntse e fokotseha. Lintho tsa bohlokoa tse lokelang ho nahanoa li kenyelletsa:

Bakeng sa Thomello e Tlamang Europe

Kopa tlhahisoleseding ea carbon footprint le litokomane tsa setifikeiti se setala hammoho le lipotso tsohle

Netefatsa bokhoni ba mofani oa litlaleho tse lumellanang le CBAM

Nahana ka ditumellano tsa nako e telele ho netefatsa bokgoni bo inehetseng ba tlhahiso ya khabone e tlase

Bakeng sa Thomello e eang Bochabela bo Hare

Kenya keketseho ea litšenyehelo tsa thepa ka 15-25% le tieho e ka bang teng libekeng tse 2-4

Netefatsa hore ho na le Litifikeiti tsa Teko ea Mill (MTC) tse se nang sekoli le Litifikeiti tsa Tšimoloho ho fokotsa likotsi tsa lekhetho

Buisana ka mekhoa e meng ea ho tsamaisa litsela le bafani ba thepa

Bakeng sa Litlhoko Tsohle tsa Q2

Qetella litlhaloso 'me u behe liodara libekeng tse 2-3 tse tlang

Etella pele lintho tse nang le lere le lelelele: liphaephe tse se nang mohele tse bophara bo boholo, liphaephe tsa tšepe ea motsoako, le likarolo tsa sebopeho tsa EN 10219

Kopanya bafepedi esale pele ho utloisisa kemiso ea bona ea tlhahiso ea kamora matsatsi a phomolo le bokhoni ba bona ba ho fokotsa khabone e ngata

Sanonpipe: Molekane oa Hao bakeng sa Tšepe e Tala le Tsamaiso ea Lefatše

Jwalo ka mofani wa ditshebeletso tsa diphaephe tsa tshepe tse fanang ka tsohle, re ikemiseditse ho ba molekane ya tshepahalang ka ho fetisisa lefapheng la diindasteri la maemo a hodimo lefatsheng. Bokgoni ba rona bo kenyeletsa:

Botebo ba Thepa: Hoo e ka bang lithane tse 200,000 tsa liphaephe tsa tšepe tse se nang moedi (khabone le motsoako), hammoho le lithane tse 10,000 tsa liphaephe tse tjheseletsoeng, liphaephe tse sekwere/tse khutlonnetsepa, le liphaephe tsa tšepe e sa ruseng.

Ketane ea Phepelo ea Khabone e Tlase: Tšebelisano-'moho le lifeme tse fanang ka matla a tala, litekanyo tse phahameng tsa litšila, le tlhahiso ea EAF, tse tšehelitsoeng ke polokelo ea data ea khabone le litlaleho tse lumellanang le CBAM.

Tšehetso ea Litšebeletso tse Felletseng: Ho tloha taolong ea thepa e tala ho isa ho liphutheloaneng, ho penta le ho romela thepa, re boloka nako le litšenyehelo tsa bareki ha re ntse re netefatsa hore melao ea tsamaiso ea latela melao.

Ikopanye le sehlopha sa rona kajeno ho buisana ka leano la hau la theko la kotara ea bobeli ea 2026, kopa likhetho tsa lihlahisoa tse nang le khabone e tlase, kapa u fumane tataiso e tobileng mabapi le ho sebetsana le liphephetso tsa hajoale tsa lipolotiki le tsa taolo.