Ngomhla wama-24 ku-Epreli, ngo-2026 – Uvavanyo lweMarike ngaphambi kweeholide kunye neNkangeleko yekota yesi-2

Njengoko singena kwiveki yesithathu ka-Epreli 2026, umbhobho wesinyithi ongenamthungo wehlabathi, umbhobho wesinyithi odibeneyo, kunye nemakethi yecandelo elingenanto ijikeleza isigqi esahlukileyo: umsebenzi oqinileyo we-Q2 olungelelaniswe nokumiswa okuzayo kweholide yoSuku lweMeyi kwiindawo eziphambili zokuvelisa. Njengoko kusele iveki enye ku-Epreli, abathengi benza izigqibo zokugqibela zokufumana amathuba okuvelisa ngaphambi kokuba iholide iphele, ngelixa ngaxeshanye beqwalasela uxinzelelo oluqhubekayo lwezopolitiko kuMbindi Mpuma.

Uhlaziyo lwezelizwe: I-Strait of Hormuz – Indawo eLawulwayo yoMngcipheko

Ingxabano yomkhosi ebandakanya i-Iran, i-Israel, kunye ne-United States ifikelele kwinqanaba loxinzelelo olulawulwayo, kwaye imigaqo-nkqubo esele imiselwe ngoku isetyenziswa rhoqo kwiinqanawa zorhwebo.

Imisebenzi Yolwandle Iqhelekile: I-Strait of Hormuz isaphantsi kwemigaqo yokuhanjiswa kweenqanawa zaselwandle ephuculweyo, kodwa akukho kunyuka okukhulu kwenzeke kwiiveki zakutshanje. Imizila yokuthumela imithwalo igcine intlawulo eyongezelelweyo yempahla ye-$1,000–$3,000 ngesikhongozeli ngasinye semithwalo eya eGulf, kunye nokulibaziseka kwezothutho okuthatha umyinge weentsuku ezili-10-12 xa kuthelekiswa neshedyuli yangaphambi kwemfazwe.

Ukuhamba Kokungenisa Izinto Kwimimandla: Amazwe eBhunga leNtsebenziswano laseGulf (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain) – aquka ngaphezulu kwe-26% yempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle eTshayina ngaphandle kwembhobho – ayaqhubeka nokufumana ukuthunyelwa kwembhobho yentsimbi ngaphandle kwembhobho, nangona ucwangciso lothutho lufuna ixesha elilinganayo lokuthintela.

Ukuzinziswa kweXabiso laMandla: Amaxabiso eoyile afikelele kuluhlu lwe-$78–$85/uluhlu lweebhareli, nto leyo enciphisa uxinzelelo lweendleko ezikhawulezileyo kwimveliso yentsimbi ye-arc yombane ngelixa igcina umgangatho oxhasayo wepayipi yentsimbi yekhabhoni kunye nexabiso lepayipi yentsimbi ye-alloy.

Impembelelo yeholide yoSuku lweMeyi: Ukuvalwa kwefestile ye-oda yangaphambi kweholide

Iholide ezayo yeMay Day (ngomhla woku-1 ukuya kowe-5 kuMeyi) iza nekhefu elifutshane kodwa elibalulekileyo kwimisebenzi yokuvelisa kunye neyothutho kulo lonke elaseTshayina. Le ndlela yonyaka ineziphumo eziqikelelweyo:

Iishedyuli zeMveliso: I-Mills iza kuyimisa imisebenzi yeholide yesizwe yeentsuku ezi-5, imveliso ibuyele kwinani elipheleleyo ngoMeyi 7-8. Iiodolo ezifakwe emva komhla wama-25 ku-Epreli ngokubanzi ziya kucutshungulwa kumjikelo wemveliso emva kweeholide.

Ixesha loThutho: Ukusebenza kwezibuko kuza kucotha ngexesha leveki yeeholide. Indawo yeenqanawa zokuthumela izinto ezisuka ekupheleni kuka-Epreli ngoku iyagqitywa.

Ithuba Lokufumana Izinto: Kubathengi abafuna iipayipi ezingenamthungo, iipayipi ezidityanisiweyo, okanye iindawo zokwakha ukuze kuhanjiswe iprojekthi ekupheleni kukaMeyi okanye ekuqaleni kukaJuni, le veki imele ithuba lokugqibela lokufumana amathuba okuvelisa izinto ngaphambi kweeholide.

Uhlaziyo lweMarike yekota yesibini ka-2026: Izinto ezisisiseko ezizinzileyo ezineenguqu zengingqi

Ikota yesibini iyaqhubeka nokubonisa iimeko zemarike ezilinganayo kunye neepateni ezicacileyo zemfuno yengingqi.

Imveliso kunye nokuNikezela

Iifektri kulo lonke elaseAsia zisebenza ngomthamo ongama-75-80%, kwaye imveliso yazo izinzile yimibhobho yentsimbi yekhabhoni, imibhobho yentsimbi ye-alloy, kunye nemibhobho yentsimbi engagqwali engenamthungo.

Amaxesha okukhokela ahlala engaguquki: iintsuku ezingama-30-40I-ASTM A106 Ibanga BkwayeI-API 5L GRB, Iintsuku ezingama-45-55 zeI-alloy ye-ASTM A335imibhobho enomthungo elandelelanayo kunye neyobukhulu obukhulu.

Iindleko zezinto eziluhlaza – ii-carbon steel billets, ii-HR coils, kunye nezinto ezidibanisa i-alloying – zihlale zihambelana nomgama kulo lonke u-Epreli, nto leyo enika ukuqikelelwa kwamaxabiso.

Abaqhubi beemfuno ngokweCandelo

Inqanaba lomsebenzi wangoku weCandelo Iimveliso eziphambili ezifunwayo

Ioyile neGesi zigcinwe ixesha elide, zinomthamo omkhuluI-API 5L X52Umbhobho womgca we /X60/X65, i-OCTG, ikheyiji, ityhubhu

Ukuveliswa koMbane okuQinileyo, okuqhutywa kulondolozo lwe-ASTM A213 T11/T22,I-ASTM A335 P11/P22/Iityhubhu zebhoyila ze-P91

Ukukhula kweziseko zophuhliso, ingakumbi i-SE AsiaI-EN 10210 S355J2H, EN 10219 amacandelo, iityhubhu zesikwere, umbhobho wokufaka iindonga

Iityhubhu ezichanekileyo ezingenamthungo zeMizi-mveliso eziPhakathi, ezidityaniswe nokuveliswa, iityhubhu zoomatshini, iityhubhu zesilinda ye-hydraulic

Imbonakalo yamaxabiso ekupheleni kwekota yesibini ka-2026

Amaxabiso eepayipi angenamthungo: Kulindeleke ukuba ahlale ezinzile kude kube nguMeyi, kunye notshintsho oluncinci olunokubakho ngoJuni ukuba iindleko zamandla ziyanyuka.

Iprimiyamu yeLogistics yeGeopolitical: Iimpahla ezithunyelwayo eziya kuMbindi Mpuma ziyaqhubeka zineprimiyamu yexabiso eliyi-10-15% xa kuthelekiswa nezinye iindawo.

Iindaba zakutshanje zoshishino: Ubuchule, uRhwebo, kunye neTekhnoloji

Izinto ezininzi ezenzekayo ekupheleni kuka-Epreli zibumba imeko yokhuphiswano:

Umthamo Omtsha Weepayipi Ezingenamthungo ze-EAF kwi-Intanethi: Iqela lesibini lesinyithi laseTshayina liqalise imveliso kwiziko elitsha leepayipi ezingenamthungo ze-electric arc furnace (EAF), longeza iitoni ezingama-250,000 zomthamo wonyaka we-carbon ephantsi. Oku kwandisa ukufumaneka kweepayipi ezingenamthungo ezine-carbon ephantsi kunye nomlinganiselo ophezulu wenkunkuma egciniweyo kunye nokusetyenziswa kwamandla aluhlaza - oku kubaluleke ngakumbi kubathengi baseYurophu abajongene neemfuno ze-CBAM.

Ukuqinisekiswa kwe-CBAM Kuyaqina: IKhomishini yaseYurophu ibhengeze ukuvavanywa okuphuculweyo kwedatha ye-carbon footprint kwiintsimbi ezingeniswayo, ukususela ngoMeyi 1. Abangenisi kufuneka baqinisekise ukuba iingxelo zokukhutshwa kwegesi ethile zichanekile kwaye ziyaqinisekiswa.

Umbhobho weZakhiwo zoPhuhliso lwaseMbindi Mpuma: Iiprojekthi ezininzi ezinkulu zokuhambisa amanzi kunye nokwakha zibhengezwe eSaudi Arabia nase-UAE, nto leyo edale imfuno engaphambili yemibhobho edityanisiweyo enobubanzi obukhulu kunye neendawo ezingenanto ezakhiweyo zokuhanjiswa kwe-H2 2026.

Ukuboniswa kwezinto: Imfuno yekota yesi-2 kunye namaxesha okukhokela

Isicelo seSikhokelo seBanga lezinto ezibalulekileyo Ixesha leNtengiso yeQ2

I-API 5L X52/X60/X65 Imibhobho yeoyile negesi iintsuku ezingama-35-45 Ihlala ixesha elide, inomthamo omkhulu

Inkonzo yobushushu obuphezulu ye-ASTM A106 Grade B/C Iintsuku ezingama-30-40 Izinzile, isekelwe ngokubanzi

I-ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91 Iibhoyila zokuvelisa umbane iintsuku ezingama-45-55 Imijikelo yokulungisa engaguqukiyo

I-ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Iindawo ezidlakadlaka iintsuku ezingama-40-50 Eziphakathi, eziphathelele iprojekthi

I-EN 10210 S355J2H (igqityiwe shushu) Izakhelo zesakhiwo iintsuku ezingama-35-45 Ukukhula, iziseko zophuhliso

I-EN 10219 S355J2H(eyakhiwe ngokubandayo) Izakhiwo zoomatshini iintsuku ezingama-30-40 Zizinzile, zifumaneka ngokubanzi

I-ASTM A333 Ibanga lesi-6 Inkonzo yobushushu obuphantsi iintsuku ezingama-40-55 Iprojekthi ezikhethekileyo

Iingcebiso zoBuchule bokuThenga kwiVeki yangaphambi kweeHolide

Njengoko iholide yeMay Day isondela, sicebisa ukuba kwenziwe ezi zinto zilandelayo:

Gqibezela ii-oda ze-Q2 ezingxamisekileyo kule veki: Kwiimfuno zepayipi engenamthungo, ipayipi ye-alloy, okanye iipayipi ezinobubanzi obukhulu ezifunekayo ekuhanjisweni ngasekupheleni kukaMeyi okanye ngoJuni, faka ii-odolo ngaphambi komhla wama-25 ku-Epreli ukuze ufumane isabelo semveliso yangaphambi kweeholide.

Isicwangciso samaXesha okuKhokhela emva kweeholide: Iiodolo ezenziwe ngexesha leveki yeeholide (ngoMeyi 1-5) ziya kucutshungulwa ukususela ngoMeyi 6. Qwalasela eli khefu kwiibalo zakho zokuhanjiswa.

LungiselelaI-CBAMAmaxwebhu Kwangethuba: Kwimpahla ethunyelwa eYurophu, qinisekisa ukuba umthumeli wepayipi yentsimbi unikezela ngeepakethe zedatha epheleleyo ye-carbon footprint, kubandakanya izatifikethi zamandla aluhlaza kunye nokuqinisekiswa komlinganiselo we-scrap, kusekude ngaphambi kokuba ithunyelwe.

Ukhuseleko lweLogistics kwiindawo zaseGulf: Kwimibhobho yomgca kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-OCTG kuMbindi Mpuma, gcina iiveki ezi-2-3 zexesha lokulungiselela uthutho lwakho ngenxa yohlengahlengiso oluqhubekayo lothutho.

I-Sanonpipe: Iqabane Lakho NgeeRhythms Zemarike

Njengomboneleli weenkonzo zombhobho wentsimbi osebenza kwindawo enye, sizimisele ukuba liqabane elithembekileyo kwicandelo lezemizi-mveliso elikumgangatho ophezulu kwihlabathi liphela. Amandla ethu aquka:

Uluhlu Olupheleleyo: Malunga neetoni ezingama-200,000 zeepayipi zentsimbi engenamthungo (ikhabhoni kunye ne-alloy), kunye neetoni ezili-10,000 zeepayipi ezidityanisiweyo, iityhubhu zesikwere/ezingxande, kunye neepayipi zentsimbi engenasici.

Unxibelelwano lweCandelo loNikezelo lweKhabhoni ePhantsi: Ubambiswano neefektri ezibonelela ngemveliso ye-EAF, umlinganiselo ophezulu wenkunkuma elahliweyo (20-25%), kunye namandla aluhlaza (30-50%), zixhaswa yingxelo yedatha yekhabhoni ehambelana ne-CBAM.

Inkxaso yeNkonzo epheleleyo: Ukususela ekuqinisekisweni kwezinto eziluhlaza ukuya ekupakisheni, ekugqumeni nasekuthumeleni - silungelelanisa uthotho lwakho lokubonelela kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo zehlabathi.

Nxibelelana neqela lethu kule veki ukuze ugqibezele ii-odolo zakho zangaphambi kweholide okanye uxoxe ngesicwangciso sakho sokuthenga sekota yesibini ka-2026.