Ngomhla we-12 kweyoKwindla, ngo-2026 – Uhlalutyo lweShishini kunye neMbono yoBuchule kwiiVeki zokugqibela zekota yoku-1

Njengoko singena kwiveki yesibini kaMatshi, kusele ixesha elingaphantsi kwenyanga kwikota yokuqala ka-2026, umbhobho wentsimbi ongenamthungo wehlabathi, umbhobho wentsimbi odibeneyo, kunye nemarike yecandelo lesakhiwo elingenanto ijongene nomceli mngeni ombini: ukwanda koxinzelelo lwezopolitiko kuMbindi Mpuma kunye nokuphunyezwa ngokupheleleyo komgaqo omtsha waseYurophu.umqobo worhwebo oluluhlazakwimpahla yentsimbi ethengwa kwamanye amazwe. Kubaboneleli kunye nabathengi abajolise kwimarike yaseYurophu, ukuqonda ukudibana kwezi zinto ngoku kubalulekile.

Uhlaziyo lwezelizwe: Ukuphazamiseka kweStrait of Hormuz kuyaqina

Imfazwe yomkhosi ebandakanya i-Iran, i-Israel, ne-United States iyaqhubeka nokuchaphazela iindlela zorhwebo zehlabathi kunye neendleko zamandla.

Indawo Yokunqongophala Kwempahla: I-Strait of Hormuz isengumngcipheko omkhulu, apho imigca emikhulu yokuthutha ibeka iindleko ezongezelelweyo ze-$1,500–$4,000 kwisikhongozeli ngasinye kunye nokutshintsha indlela yeenqanawa, kongeza iintsuku ezili-10–15 kwixesha lokuhamba kwempahla eziya ePersian Gulf.

Ukuvezwa kweMimandla: Nangona ukuthunyelwa kwempahla ngqo e-Iran kuncinci, amazwe amathandathu e-Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain) xa ewonke enza i-26.3% yempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle eTshayina ngaphandle komthungo—zonke ezifuna ukudlula kwi-strait.

Ukunyuswa kweendleko zamandla: Amaxabiso eoyile asondela kwi-$100/umgqomo, nto leyo enyusa iindleko zemveliso yokwenza isinyithi se-arc furnace yombane esisebenzisa amandla amaninzi kwaye ibeka uxinzelelo oluphezulu kumaxabiso emibhobho yesinyithi sekhabhoni, imibhobho yesinyithi se-alloy, kunye nemibhobho engenamthungo yentsimbi engagqwaliyo.

Isakhelo esitsha soRhwebo oluLuhlaza lwaseYurophu: i-CBAM kunye neNgaphaya kwayo

Kwabathumela ngaphandle abajolise kwimarike yaseYurophu, unyaka ka-2026 uphawula unyaka obalulekileyo. I-EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) ngoku isebenza ngokupheleleyo, itshintsha ngokupheleleyo indlela elawulwa ngayo ukungeniswa kwemibhobho yentsimbi.

Iimfuneko zeCBAM zabaThengisi beNsimbi abavela kwamanye amazwe

Iimbopheleleko zeNgxelo: Abangenisi ngoku kufuneka babhengeze ukukhutshwa okufakwe ngaphakathi kwemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo, imibhobho edibeneyo, kunye neetyhubhu zesakhiwo, ezigubungela ukukhutshwa okuthe ngqo (Umda 1) kunye nokungathanga ngqo (Umda 2).

Ukuthengwa Kwesatifikethi: Ukukhutshwa komoya ongcolileyo okugqitha imilinganiselo ye-EU kufuna ukuthengwa kwesatifikethi se-CBAM ngexabiso elidityaniswe namaxabiso ekhabhoni e-EU ETS (okwangoku yi-€80-100/tCO₂).

Ixesha lokuthobela imithetho: Le ndlela itshintsha ukusuka ekunikeni ingxelo kuphela ukuya kuhlengahlengiso olupheleleyo lwezemali ngo-2026, kunye nezohlwayo zokungathobeli imithetho.

Isicwangciso soShishino seSivumelwano esiLungileyo se-EU

UMthetho weShishini le-Net-Zero: Ubeka usukelo lwetekhnoloji yeqhinga (kuquka intsimbi) ukuhlangabezana ne-40% yemfuno ye-EU ngemveliso yasekhaya ngo-2030, ukhuthaza ukungeniswa kwemveliso ngaphandle ngeempawu eziqinisekisiweyo zekhabhoni ephantsi.

Imithetho Yokuvuza Kwekhabhoni: Iimveliso ezivela kumazwe angenazo iimigaqo-nkqubo zemozulu ezijolise kakhulu zijongene nokuhlolwa okukhulayo kunye nokulungiswa kwemida.

Impendulo yoShishino lweMibhobho yeNsimbi yaseTshayina: Indlela yokunciphisa iKhabhoni engama-30%

Ukuphendula kwimithetho yaseYurophu kunye neenjongo zasekhaya ze-dual-carbon, abavelisi abaphambili bemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo eTshayina bakhawulezisa ukususwa kwe-carbonization. Ngokusekelwe kwizixhobo zoqeqesho lwakutshanje kushishino, indlela yokufikelela ekunciphiseni i-carbon nge-30% nangaphezulu ibandakanya indibaniselwano yetekhnoloji:

Iindlela Zobuchwephesha Eziphambili

Utshintsho kwiSakhiwo saMandla

Ukutshintshwa koMbane oLuhlaza: Ukwandisa isabelo samandla omoya kunye nelanga kwimveliso. Amaphulo kaTianjin Pipe anciphise ukukhutshwa kwe-CO₂ ngonyaka ngeetoni ezingama-220,000. Ukufikelela kumandla aluhlaza angama-50% nangaphezulu kunokunciphisa kakhulu umngcipheko wekhabhoni kwimibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo.

I-Hydrogen Metallurgy: Ukunciphisa ngokuthe ngqo okusekelwe kwi-hydrogen kuvela njengobuchwepheshe obuphambili, obunokunciphisa amandla okukhupha umbane ukuya kwisithathu seenkqubo zemveli.

Uyilo lweNkqubo

Inkqubo emfutshane ye-EAF: Ukutshintsha ukusuka kwinkqubo ende ye-blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) ukuya kwinkqubo emfutshane ye-electric arc furnace (EAF) kusetyenziswa i-scrap steel kunokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwe-emissions ngama-60-75%. Ukuveliswa kwepayipi engenamthungo yeBaosteel esebenzisa ii-billets ze-EAF kufezekisa i-1/3 ye-emissions yeendlela zokuguqula.

Ukwanda koMlinganiselo weeScrap: Ukwanda kwe-10% kokusetyenziswa kweeScrap kunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni malunga ne-15%.

Ulawulo lwaMandla eDijithali

Amaqonga amandla akrelekrele avumela ukujonga nokuphucula ngexesha langempela. Iqela leShandong Guangfu lifumene ukonga amandla nge-15% nangaphezulu ngokuphucula okusingqongileyo okudibeneyo.

Ukuphunyezwa okuNgcono ngokweSigaba

Ixesha lokuphunyezwa kokunciphisa ukukhutshwa komoya endleleni

Amandla Aluhlaza (30%+) 8-12% Ixesha elifutshane (iminyaka eyi-1-3)

Isilinganiselo sezinto ezingafunekiyo (25%+) 10-15% Ixesha elifutshane (iminyaka eyi-1-3)

Ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla 5-8% Ixesha elifutshane (iminyaka eyi-1-3)

Amandla Aluhlaza (50%+) 15-20% Ixesha eliphakathi (iminyaka emi-3-5)

I-DRI esekelwe kwi-hydrogen 30-50% Ixesha eliphakathi (iminyaka emi-3-5)

Indlela epheleleyo ye-EAF Scrap Route 60%+ Ixesha eliphakathi (iminyaka emi-3-5)

I-CCUS >90% Ixesha elide (iminyaka emi-5-10)

Indima Entsha yeNkampani yoRhwebo: iCarbon Data Bridge kunye neSolution Integrator

Njengoko kubonisiwe kuqeqesho lwakutshanje lwemarike yaseYurophu, indima yomthumeli wemibhobho yentsimbi itshintsha ukusuka ekubeni ngumthengisi wemveliso ukuya ekubeni ngumcebisi wolawulo lwekhabhoni.

Izakhono Eziphambili Zempumelelo Yemarike YaseYurophu

Ukucaca Kwedatha Yekhabhoni

Ukugcina ii-archives ze-mill carbon ezineenkcukacha ezinesatifikethi samandla aluhlaza, iirekhodi zomlinganiselo we-scrap, kunye nedatha yokusetyenziswa kwamandla emveliso

Ukubonelela ngeengxelo ze-carbon footprint ezisekelwe kwidatha yokwenyani yemveliso

Ubudlelwane phakathi kweMill eKhabhoni ephantsi

Ukuseka uluhlu lwababoneleli abakhethwayo ababeka phambili iifektri ezinamandla aluhlaza angama-≥30%, umlinganiselo we-≥20% we-scrap, okanye iinkqubo ze-EAF ezipheleleyo

Ukuqinisekisa amandla okuvelisa aluhlaza azinikeleyo kubathengi baseYurophu

Inkxaso yokuThotyelwa kweMithetho

Ukubonelela ngeetemplate zengxelo yedatha yekhabhoni ezihambelana ne-CBAM eziqinisekiswe ziiarhente zomntu wesithathu

Ukucebisa ngeendlela zobugcisa ezifanelekileyo (umz., amandla e-EAF+aluhlaza ukuze kuncitshiswe ngama-60% nangaphezulu, amandla amdaka kakhulu+aluhlaza ukuze kuncitshiswe ngama-25-30%)

Inkqubela Ebonisiweyo

Iiprojekthi zovavanyo ezisebenzisa ii-billets ze-furnace zombane kunye nombane oluhlaza kwimveliso yepayipi yomgca zifumene ukukhutshwa komoya okungama-0.65 tCO₂/ton kuphela—70% ngaphantsi komndilili weshishini weetoni ezingama-2.2.

Ubudlelwane neefektri ezikwaziyo ukubonelela ngombane oluhlaza ngoku bubandakanya i-40% yamandla emveliso, apho "uMgca weeMveliso zokunciphisa iKhabhoni ezingama-30%" ujolise ekunciphiseni unyawo lwe-10-15% olongezelelweyo lokuthengwa kwe-H2 2026.

Ukugxila kwizinto eziphathekayo: Amanqaku aphambili kwiiprojekthi zaseYurophu

Abathengi baseYurophu bafanele babeke phambili ababoneleli abakwaziyo ukubonelela ngeenguqulelo eziqinisekisiweyo zekhabhoni ephantsi kwezi mveliso zifunwa kakhulu:

Udidi lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo eziqhelekileyo Indlela yeKhabhoni ephantsi

I-API 5L X52/X60/X65Imibhobho yeoyile negesi EAF + amandla aluhlaza (ukunciphisa okungu-60% nangaphezulu)

I-ASTM A106 Ibanga B/C Inkonzo yobushushu obuphezulu Umlinganiselo ophezulu wezinto ezilahliweyo + amandla aluhlaza (25-30%)

I-ASTM A335 P11/P22/I-P91Iibhoyila zokuvelisa umbane I-DRI esekelwe kwi-hydrogen (evelayo)

I-EN 10210 S355J2HAmacandelo angenanto akhiweyo Amandla aluhlaza + ukulungiswa kweengceba

I-ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Iindawo ezirhabaxayo Umxholo we-EAF ongenasici kunye nowenziwe ngokutsha

Iziphumo zoBuchule zoKuthenga kwikota yesibini ka-2026

Njengoko ikota yokuqala iphela kule nyanga, ithuba lokuqinisekisa izithuba zemveliso zekota yesibini liya lincipha. Izinto ezibalulekileyo ekufuneka ziqwalaselwe ziquka:

Ukuthunyelwa Kwempahla Eya EYurophu

Cela idatha ye-carbon footprint kunye namaxwebhu esiqinisekiso esiluhlaza kunye nayo yonke imibuzo

Qinisekisa amandla omthengisi kwiingxelo ezihambelana ne-CBAM

Cinga ngezivumelwano zexesha elide ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuba kukho amandla azinikeleyo okuvelisa imveliso ekhabhoni ephantsi

Kwizinto Ezithunyelwayo Eziya KuMbindi Mpuma

Ingqwalasela yokunyuka kweendleko zokuthutha nge-15-25% kunye nokulibaziseka okunokwenzeka kwiiveki ezi-2-4

Qinisekisa ukuba iziqinisekiso zovavanyo lweMill (MTC) kunye neziqinisekiso zemvelaphi azinasiphako ukuze kuncitshiswe umngcipheko werhafu

Xoxa ngezinye iindlela zokuhambisa umzila kunye nababoneleli beenkonzo zothutho

Kuzo Zonke Iimfuno zeQ2

Gqibezela iinkcukacha uze ufake ii-odolo kwiiveki ezi-2-3 ezizayo

Beka phambili izinto ezisebenza ngentsimbi ende: iipayipi ezinkulu ezingenamthungo, iityhubhu zentsimbi ye-alloy, kunye namacandelo ezakhiwo ze-EN 10219

Qhagamshelana nababoneleli kwangethuba ukuze baqonde iishedyuli zabo zemveliso emva kweeholide kunye nokukwazi kwabo ukunciphisa i-carbon

I-Sanonpipe: Iqabane Lakho le-Green Steel kunye ne-Global Navigation

Njengomboneleli weenkonzo zombhobho wentsimbi osebenza kwindawo enye, sizimisele ukuba liqabane elithembekileyo kwicandelo lezemizi-mveliso elikumgangatho ophezulu kwihlabathi liphela. Amandla ethu aquka:

Ubunzulu bezinto ezikhoyo: Malunga neetoni ezingama-200,000 zemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo (ikhabhoni kunye ne-alloy), kunye neetoni ezili-10,000 zemibhobho edibeneyo, iityhubhu zesikwere/ezingxande, kunye nemibhobho yentsimbi engenasici.

Unxibelelwano lweCandelo loNikezelo lweKhabhoni ePhantsi: Ubambiswano neefektri ezibonelela ngamandla aluhlaza, umlinganiselo ophezulu wenkunkuma elahliweyo, kunye nemveliso ye-EAF, exhaswa ziingxelo zedatha yekhabhoni kunye nengxelo ehambelana ne-CBAM.

Inkxaso yeNkonzo epheleleyo: Ukususela kulawulo lwezinto eziluhlaza ukuya ekupakisheni, ekupeyinteni, nasekuthumeleni, songa ixesha kunye neendleko zabathengi ngelixa siqinisekisa ukuthotyelwa kwemithetho.

Nxibelelana neqela lethu namhlanje ukuze uxoxe ngesicwangciso sakho sokuthenga sekota yesibini ka-2026, ucele ukhetho lwemveliso engenakhabhoni eninzi, okanye ufumane isikhokelo esithile malunga nokuhlangabezana nemingeni ekhoyo yezopolitiko kunye nemithetho.