Ngomhla wama-20 kuCanzibe, ngo-2026 – Uhlalutyo lweShishini lwaBathengi beHlabathi

Njengoko singena kwiveki yesithathu kaMeyi 2026, ihlabathi liphelaumbhobho wentsimbi ongenamthungo,umbhobho wentsimbi odibeneyokunyeicandelo elingenanto elinolwakhiwoImarike ijongana nomhlaba wezopolitiko ongazange ubonwe ngaphambili. Kwiiveki ezimbalwa, iTshayina ibambe uMongameli wase-US kunye noMongameli waseRashiya uPutin kwiingqungquthela eziphezulu, nto leyo ebonisa utshintsho olunokwenzeka kumgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo lwehlabathi. Okwangoku, ukungqubana kweMpuma Ephakathi kuyaqhubeka nokuzinza kancinci kancinci, kwaye iimarike zemali ziyasabela kolu tshintsho lwezopolitiko. Le ngxelo inika uhlaziyo olugxile kwisicwangciso sokuthenga esicwangcisiweyo.

Impumelelo Yezopolitiko: Iingqungquthela Ezimbini Ezinkulu Ziyila Utshintsho Kwindawo

Iziphumo zeNgqungquthela ye-US-China
Emva kwengqungquthela ebalulekileyo phakathi kwe-US ne-China ekuqaleni kwale nyanga, iingxoxo zokuqala zenqanaba lokusebenza ziqalile malunga nohlengahlengiso olunokwenzeka lomgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo.

Uphononongo lweeRhafu lweCandelo 232Amaqela asebenza macala omabini ahlola ububanzi beerhafu zentsimbi, kwaye kuxoxwa ngezinto ezithile ezinokuthi ziqwalaselwe.umbhobho wentsimbi yekhabhonikwayeumbhobho wentsimbi ye-alloyAkukho tshintsho lusemthethweni lubhengeziweyo, kodwa isantya sezopolitiko siyancomeka.

Amanyathelo okuququzelela urhweboOmabini amacala avumile ukwenza lula iinkqubo zoxwebhu lokuthumela ngaphandle nokungenisa, nto leyo enokunciphisa amaxesha olawulo okukhokelaumbhobho wentsimbi ongenamthungoukuthunyelwa kwezinto phakathi kweemarike ezimbini.

Impembelelo kwiMarike yeMaliIzinga lokutshintshiselana nge-USD/CNY lizinzile emva kokuguquguquka kokuqala, ngoku lirhweba ngaphakathi koluhlu oluncinci njengoko iimarike zilindele izibhengezo zomgaqo-nkqubo ezicacileyo.

Uphuhliso lweNgqungquthela phakathi kweRussia neChina
Utyelelo lukaMongameli Putin eTshayina ngaxeshanye luvelise iziphumo ezininzi ezinxulumeneumbhobho wentsimbiimboni:

Intsebenziswano kwiZiseko zoPhuhliso lwaMandlaIzivumelwano ezintsha malunga nophuhliso lwemibhobho yegesi yendalo ziya kukhuthaza imfuno yexesha elizayo yeumbhobho womgca onobubanzi obukhulukwayeIipayipi ezingenamthungo ze-API 5L X65/X70kwiiprojekthi zokuhambisa amandla eziwela imida.

Iindlela zezeMali zorhweboUkusetyenziswa okwandisiweyo kwemali yasekuhlaleni kwizivumelwano zorhwebo zamazwe amabini (iRuble/Yuan) kunokunciphisa iindleko zokuguqula imali kwiumbhobho wentsimbiiintengiselwano phakathi kweemarike ezimbini.

Ulungelelwaniso loTyalo-mali lweZiseko zoPhuhliso: Ulungelelwaniso lophuhliso lweziseko zophuhliso zase-Eurasia luya kuxhasa imfunoimibhobho yesakhiwo,umbhobho wokufaka iintsikakunyeEN 10219 iindawo ezingenantokwiiprojekthi zoololiwe kunye nezokwakha.

Uhlaziyo lwezePolitiki: Iingxaki zaseMbindi Mpuma ziyaqhubeka zithomalalisa

Ingxabano yomkhosi ebandakanya i-Iran, i-Israel, kunye ne-United States iye yazinza ngakumbi.

I-Strait yaseHormuz: Imisebenzi yaselwandle iyanda ngokwesiqhelo. Iintlawulo ezongezelelweyo zemithwalo yemithwalo eya eGulf ziye zehla kakhulu300–300–1,000 kwisikhongozeli ngasinye, ngoku ukulibaziseka kwezothutho ngoku kuncinci (iintsuku ezi-2-5 ngaphezulu kwesiseko).

Ukuhamba Kokungenisa Kwempahla KwimimandlaAmazwe eBhunga leNtsebenziswano laseGulf afumanaumbhobho womgca,I-OCTGkunyeumbhobho wolwakhiwoukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezinexesha eliphantse libe lesiqhelo lothutho.

Amaxabiso AmandlaAmaxabiso eoyile azinzile kwi68–68–Uluhlu lweebhareli ezingama-72/, ukunciphisa uxinzelelo lweendlekoisithando sombane se-arcimveliso yentsimbi.

Uhlaziyo lweMarike yekota yesibini ka-2026: Iziseko eziZinzileyo, Ukuqwalasela uMgaqo-nkqubo woRhwebo

Ikota yesibini iyaqhubeka nokubonisa iimeko zemarike ezilinganayo, nangona uphuhliso lwemigaqo-nkqubo yorhwebo luzisa izinto ezinokwenzeka kwixesha eliphakathi.

Imveliso kunye nokuNikezela

Iifektri kulo lonke elaseAsia zisebenza eUkusetyenziswa komthamo we-75-80%kunye nemveliso ezinzileyo yeimibhobho yentsimbi yekhabhoni,imibhobho yentsimbi ye-alloykunyeimibhobho engenamthungo yentsimbi engagqwaliyo.

Amaxesha okukhokela ahlala engaguquguquki:Iintsuku ezingama-30-40ngenxaI-ASTM A106 Ibanga BkwayeI-API 5L B,Iintsuku ezingama-45-55ngenxaI-ASTM A335uthotho lwe-alloy kunyeimibhobho engenamthungo enobukhulu obukhulu.

Isishwankathelo seNqanaba lokuTshintshiselana (ukusukela nge-20 kaMeyi 2026)

Isibini semali	Intshukumo xa ithelekiswa neeveki ezi-2 ezidlulileyo	Intsingiselo kubathengi
I-USD/CNY	-0.3% (iyuan inamandla kancinci)	Ukunyuka okuncinci kwexabiso le-USD
I-EUR/CNY	-0.2% (i-yuan ezinzileyo)	Impembelelo encinci
I-RUB/CNY	+1.5% (i-ruble inamandla ngakumbi)	Ixabiso eliphantsi le-CNY kwiintlawulo ze-RUB

Izinto Ezibangela Imfuno NgokweCandelo Lokusetyenziswa Kokugqibela

Icandelo	Inqanaba lomsebenzi wangoku	Iimveliso eziphambili ezifunwayo
Ioyile kunye neGesi(Ehlabathini lonke)	Ihlala ixesha elide, inomthamo ophezulu	I-API 5L X52/X60/X65 umbhobho womgca,I-OCTG,ikheyiji,ityhubhu
Ukuveliswa koMbane	Izinzile, iqhutywa kulondolozo	I-ASTM A213 T11/T22,I-ASTM A335 P11/P22/I-P91iityhubhu zebhoyila
Iziseko zophuhliso(eAsia, eMbindi Mpuma)	Ukukhula	I-EN 10210 S355J2H,EN 10219amacandelo,iityhubhu zesikwere,I-RHS
Ukuhanjiswa kwamandla(Iiprojekthi ezintsha zemibhobho)	Izakhayo, ziqhutywa zizivumelwano phakathi kweRashiya neTshayina	Imibhobho engenamthungo enobubanzi obukhulu,Umbhobho womgca we-X65/X70

Iindaba zakutshanje zoshishino: Ubuchule, uMgaqo-nkqubo woRhwebo, kunye neTekhnoloji

Uphuhliso oluninzi phakathi ukuya ekupheleni kukaMeyi lubumba imeko yokhuphiswano:

Izivumelwano zeMibhobho yeRussia-ChinaIzivumelwano ezintsha zeziseko zophuhliso zamandla ziya kukhuthaza imfunoumbhobho womgca okumgangatho ophezulukwayeimibhobho engenamthungo enobukhulu obukhulukwiiprojekthi zothutho oluwela imida, kulindeleke ukuba ukuthengwa kuqale kwisiqingatha sesibini sowama-2026.

Amaqela Okusebenza Kwezorhwebo phakathi kwe-US ne-ChinaIintlanganiso zokuqala malunga nohlengahlengiso lweerhafu olunokubakho lweCandelo 232 zigqityiwe. Abachaphazelekayo balindele ulwalathiso lokuqala zingadlulanga iintsuku ezingama-30-60.

Iimfuneko zoXwebhu lweCBAMAbathengi baseYurophu baya becela ngakumbiiipakethi zedatha ye-carbon footprintkunyeizatifikethi zamandla aluhlazakwayeukuqinisekiswa komlinganiselo we-scrapnjengesiqhelo.

Amandla amatsha e-EAF ayaqhubeka nokunyuka: Yakutshanjeisithando sombane se-arc (EAF)ukongezwa kwemibhobho okungenamthungo ngoku kukwimveliso epheleleyo, nto leyo eyandisa ukufumaneka kwayoimibhobho engenamthungo enekhabhoni ephantsikwiiprojekthi ezikhathalela okusingqongileyo.

Ukujonga Izinto Ngokupheleleyo: Amanqaku Aphambili e-Q2 2026

Ibanga lezinto	Izicelo eziphambili	Ixesha lokukhokhela	Intsingiselo yeMfuno yeQ2
I-API 5L X52/X60/X65	Imibhobho yeoyile negesi	Iintsuku ezingama-35-45	Ihlala ixesha elide, inomthamo ophezulu
I-API 5L X70(kwiiprojekthi ezintsha zemibhobho)	Uthumelo oluphezulu	Iintsuku ezingama-45-55	Iprojekthi esakhasayo, ehambelana ngqo neyangaphambili
I-ASTM A106 Ibanga B/C	Inkonzo yobushushu obuphezulu	Iintsuku ezingama-30-40	Izinzile, isekelwe ngokubanzi
I-ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91	Iibhoyila zokuvelisa umbane	Iintsuku ezingama-45-55	Imijikelo yokugcinwa ezinzileyo
I-ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L	Iindawo ezonakalisayo	Iintsuku ezingama-40-50	Eliphakathi, elijolise ngqo kwiprojekthi
I-ASTM A333 Ibanga lesi-6	Inkonzo yobushushu obuphantsi (LNG)	Iintsuku ezingama-40-55	I-Niche, ekhethekileyo
I-EN 10210 S355J2H	Izakhelo zesakhiwo	Iintsuku ezingama-35-45	Ukukhula, iziseko zophuhliso
I-EN 10219 S355J2H	Izakhiwo zoomatshini	Iintsuku ezingama-30-40	Izinzile, ifumaneka ngokubanzi

Iingcebiso zoBuchule bokuThenga ngoMeyi 2026

Ngenxa yokutshintsha kwemeko yezopolitiko kunye nemarike, sicebisa la manyathelo alandelayo:

Jonga uphuhliso loRhwebo phakathi kwe-US ne-China: Kubathengi abajolise kwimarike yase-US, hlala unolwazi malunga nohlengahlengiso olunokwenzeka lwerhafu yeCandelo 232. Nakuphi na ukuncitshiswa kuya kudala ukonga iindleko kwangokoumbhobho ongenamthungokwayeumbhobho odibeneyoukungeniswa kwamanye amazwe.

Lungiselela iMfuno eNtsha yeMibhobhoIzivumelwano zamandla phakathi kweRussia neTshayina zibonisa imfuno yexesha elizayo yeumbhobho womgca okumgangatho ophezulu(X65/X70). Abathengi ababandakanyeka kwiiprojekthi zothumelo lwase-Eurasia kufuneka baqale ucwangciso lweenkcukacha.

Lawula ukuChaphazeleka kwemali: Njengoko kukho iimali ezininzi ezisetyenziswayo (i-USD, i-EUR, i-RUB), cinga ngokuguquguquka kwesivumelwano. Kwiintengiselwano namaqela aseRashiya, izivumelwano ezisekelwe kwi-ruble zinokubonelela ngeenzuzo emva kwezivumelwano zengqungquthela.

Beka ii-oda ze-Q2 kungekudala: Ngokubaumbhobho ongenamthungo,umbhobho we-alloyokanyeityhubhu yebhoyilaIimfuneko ezifunekayo zokuhanjiswa ngoJuni-Julayi, faka ii-odolo kwiiveki ezi-2 ezizayo ukuze ufumane iindawo zokuvelisa.

Lungisa uxwebhu lwe-CBAM: Kwimithwalo eya eYurophu, qinisekisa ukuba igqityiweiipakethi zedatha ye-carbon footprintziyafumaneka kwangethuba kwinkqubo yokuthenga.

Cinga ngeenketho ze-Low-Carbon: Kwiiprojekthi ezikhathalela okusingqongileyo, vavanyaimibhobho engenamthungo enekhabhoni ephantsiezivela kwiifektri ze-EAF - ziya zikhuphisana ngakumbi kwaye zifumaneka ngokubanzi.

I-Sanonpipe: Iqabane Lakho Ngokuphathelele Ubunzima Bezelizwe

Njengendawo enye yokumisaumbhobho wentsimbiNjengomnikezeli weenkonzo, sizimisele ukuba liqabane elithembekileyo kwicandelo lezemizi-mveliso elikumgangatho ophezulu kwihlabathi liphela. Amandla ethu aquka:

Uluhlu oluNzulu: MalungaIitoni ezingama-200,000 zemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo(ikhabhoni kunye ne-alloy), kunyeIitoni ezili-10,000 zeepayipi ezitshixiweyo,iityhubhu zesikwere,iityhubhu eziziingxandekunyeimibhobho yentsimbi engagqwaliyo.

Ikhonkco lokubonelela ngeKhabhoni ephantsi: Ubudlelwane nemibutho enikezela ngeefektriImveliso ye-EAF,iireyithingi eziphezulu zenkunkuma(20-25%), kunyeamandla aluhlaza(30-50%), ixhaswa yingxelo yedatha yekhabhoni ehambelana ne-CBAM.

Ubuchule boRhwebo lweHlabathi: Sijonga uphuhliso lwemigaqo-nkqubo yorhwebo kunye notshintsho lwemali ukuze sinike abathengi bethu ulwalathiso olufike ngexesha elifanelekileyo.

Nxibelelana neqela lethu kule vekiukuxoxa ngesicwangciso sakho sokuthenga kwikota yesibini, ukucela amaxabiso angoku, okanye ukufumana isikhokelo malunga nokuqhuba umgaqo-nkqubo worhwebo kunye nophuhliso lwemali.