Ephreli 28, 2026 - Isifinyezo Semakethe Esihlelekile Sabathengi Bomhlaba Wonke

Njengoba singena esontweni lokugcina lika-Ephreli 2026, ipayipi lensimbi elingenamthungo emhlabeni wonke, ipayipi lensimbi elihlanganisiwe, kanye nemakethe yezingxenye ezingenalutho ezakhiweni kugxile ekubekweni kwe-oda langaphambi kweholide kanye nokusebenza kwekota yesibili. Njengoba iholide likaMeyi (Meyi 1-5) lisondela, abathengi banefasitela elincane lokuqinisekisa izikhala zokukhiqiza ngaphambi kokumiswa kokusebenza konyaka. Okwamanje, ukungezwani kweMpumalanga Ephakathi sekuzinzile ephethini yokuphazamiseka okuphethwe, futhi izisekelo zemakethe eziyisisekelo zihlala zizinzile kuzo zonke izigaba zemikhiqizo.

Isibuyekezo Sendawo Yezepolitiki: I-Strait of Hormuz - Izinzile Kodwa Ayixazululwanga

Ingxabano yezempi ehilela i-Iran, i-Israel, ne-United States iyaqhubeka nokuthonya ezokuthutha kwezentengiselwano, yize isimo sesingene esigabeni sokungezwani okulawulwayo ngezinqubo zokuthumela ezimisiwe.

Imisebenzi Yasolwandle: I-Strait of Hormuz isalokhu ingaphansi kokuqashwa okuthuthukisiwe kwamasosha asemanzini, futhi akukho ukwanda okukhulu emasontweni amuva nje. Imizila yokuthumela izimpahla igcine inkokhelo eyengeziwe yempahla engu-

1,000–1,000–2,500 ngesitsha ngasinye semithwalo eya eGulf, kanti ukubambezeleka kwezokuthutha kuvame ukuba yizinsuku ezingu-7-12 uma kuqhathaniswa nezikhathi zangaphambi kwempi.

Ukugeleza Kokungenisa Kwesifunda: Amazwe e-Gulf Cooperation Council – ahlanganisa ngaphezu kwama-26% okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwamapayipi angenamthungo eShayina – ayaqhubeka nokuthola ukuthunyelwa kwamapayipi ensimbi angenamthungo, amapayipi omugqa, kanye ne-OCTG, yize ukuhlela izinto kudinga isikhathi esiqhubekayo sokulondoloza.

Umthelela Wentengo Yamandla: Intengo kawoyela isizinzile e-

75–ububanzi obungu-75–82/umgqomo, kunciphisa ingcindezi yezindleko ezisheshayo ekukhiqizweni kwensimbi yesithando sikagesi se-arc ngenkathi kugcinwa iphansi elisekelayo lentengo yamapayipi ensimbi yekhabhoni.

Umphumela Weholide Losuku LukaMeyi: Iwindi Lokugcina Loku-oda Ngaphambi Kweholide

Iholide elizayo le-May Day (Meyi 1-5) lethula ikhefu elifushane kodwa elibalulekile ekukhiqizeni nasekuthuthweni kwempahla kulo lonke elaseShayina. Le ndlela yaminyaka yonke inemiphumela ecacile:

Amashejuli Okukhiqiza: I-Mills izomisa ukusebenza kweholide likazwelonke lezinsuku ezi-5. Ama-oda afakwe ngemuva kuka-Ephreli 28-29 ngokuvamile azocutshungulwa emjikelezweni wokukhiqiza ngemva kweholide (kusukela ngoMeyi 6-7).

Isikhathi Sokuthuthwa Kwezimpahla: Ukusebenza kwechweba kuzohamba kancane phakathi nesonto lamaholide. Indawo yemikhumbi yokuthumela impahla ehamba ngasekupheleni kuka-Ephreli manje iyaphothulwa.

Iwindi Lokuthenga: Kubathengi abadinga amapayipi angenamthungo, amapayipi ensimbi ahlanganisiwe, noma izingxenye zesakhiwo zokulethwa kwephrojekthi ngasekupheleni kukaMeyi noma ekuqaleni kukaJuni, leli sonto limelela ithuba lokugcina lokuthola izikhala zokukhiqiza ngaphambi kweholide.

Isibuyekezo Semakethe sekota yesibili ka-2026: Izisekelo Ezizinzile Kuzo Zonke Izigaba Zomkhiqizo

Ikota yesibili iyaqhubeka nokukhombisa izimo zemakethe ezilinganiselayo kanye nesidingo esiqhubekayo kuzo zonke izinhlaka ezibalulekile.

Ukukhiqizwa Nokunikezwa

Izigayo kulo lonke elase-Asia zisebenza ngokusetshenziswa komthamo ongu-75-80%, ngokukhishwa okuzinzile kwamapayipi ensimbi yekhabhoni, amapayipi ensimbi e-alloy, kanye namapayipi angenasici angenamthungo.

Izikhathi zokuhola zihlala zifana: izinsuku ezingu-30-40 ze-ASTM A106 Grade B kanye ne-API 5L B, izinsuku ezingu-45-55 ze-ASTM A335 alloy series (P11/P22/P91) kanye namapayipi amakhulu angenamthungo.

Izindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa - ama-billet ensimbi yekhabhoni, ama-HR coil, ama-ferroalloy, kanye nensimbi eqoshiwe - zihlale zilinganiselwe kulo lonke u-Ephreli, okunikeza ukubikezela kwamanani.

Abashayeli Besidingo Ngokwemboni Yokusetshenziswa Kokugcina

Imikhiqizo Eyinhloko Yezinga Lomsebenzi Wamanje Wemboni Edingekayo

Uwoyela negesi (Phezulu) Ipayipi lomugqa le-API 5L X52/X60/X65 elihlala isikhathi eside, elinomthamo ophezulu, i-OCTG, ikheyiji, ipayipi

Uwoyela negesi (Umfudlana Ophakathi) Amaphrojekthi epayipi aqinile Amapayipi amakhulu angenamthungo, ipayipi lomugqa elihlanganisiwe

Ukukhiqizwa Kwamandla Amashubhu ebhoyila i-ASTM A213 T11/T22, ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91 aqinile, aqhutshwa ukulungiswa

Ukukhula Kwengqalasizinda, ikakhulukazi i-SE Asia kanye ne-Middle East EN 10210 S355J2H, EN 10219 izingxenye, amashubhu asikwele, izingxenye ezingenalutho eziyisikwele (RHS), ipayipi lokufaka izinsimbi

Ukukhiqiza Kwezimboni Amashubhu aqinile, aqondile angenamthungo, amashubhu omshini, amashubhu esilinda se-hydraulic

I-Niche Yokucubungula Amakhemikhali, amapayipi angenamthungo angenasici e-ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L aqondene nephrojekthi, amapayipi angenasici angenasici aphindwe kabili

Umbono Wentengo Wokuphela Kwekota Yesibili Ka-2026

Amanani Amapayipi Angenamthungo: Kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale eqinile kuze kube uMeyi, kanye nokulungiswa okuphansi okungenzeka ngoJuni uma izindleko zamandla zikhuphuka noma isidingo sishesha.

Amanani Epayipi Elihlanganisiwe: Kulindeleke ukuthi kube nokuzinza, kulandela eduze ukunyakaza kwentengo ye-HR coil.

I-Geopolitical Logistics Premium: Ukuthunyelwa okuya eMpumalanga Ephakathi kuyaqhubeka nokuba ne-premium yezindleko ezingu-8-12% uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izindawo.

Izindaba Zamuva Zemboni: Amandla, Inqubomgomo Yokuhweba, kanye Nobuchwepheshe

Intuthuko eminingana ngasekupheleni kuka-Ephreli ibumba indawo yokuncintisana yabaphakeli nabathengi bamapayipi ensimbi:

Amandla Amasha e-EAF Andisa Ukunikezwa Kwekhabhoni Ephansi: Umkhiqizi wesithathu wensimbi waseShayina uqalise umugqa omusha wepayipi elingenamthungo le-arc furnace (EAF), enezela amathani angu-200,000 omthamo waminyaka yonke wekhabhoni ephansi. Lokhu kwandisa ukutholakala kwamapayipi angenamthungo anekhabhoni ephansi anezilinganiso eziphakeme ze-scrap (20-25%) kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamandla aluhlaza (30-50%) - okubaluleke kakhulu kubathengi baseYurophu ababhekene nezidingo ze-CBAM.

Ukuhlolwa Kwemibhalo ye-CBAM Kuyanda: IKhomishini yaseYurophu imemezele ukuqinisekiswa okuthuthukisiwe kwedatha ye-carbon footprint yokungeniswa kwensimbi, kusukela ngoMeyi 1. Abangenisi kumele baqinisekise ukuthi imibiko yokukhishwa kwegesi ethile inembile, iyaqinisekiswa, futhi ihambisana nezitifiketi zamandla aluhlaza kanye nemibhalo yesilinganiso se-scrap.

Iphayiphi Lengqalasizinda YaseMpumalanga Ephakathi Liyanda: Kumenyezelwe amaphrojekthi amasha okudlulisa amanzi kanye nokwakhiwa eSaudi Arabia, e-UAE, naseQatar, okudala isidingo esiqhubekayo samaphayiphi ahlanganisiwe anobubanzi obukhulu, izingxenye ezingenalutho ezakhiweni, kanye namaphayiphi okufaka izintambo zokulethwa kwe-H2 2026 kanye ne-Q1 2027.

Ukubuyekezwa Kwenqubomgomo Yezohwebo yase-US: Uhulumeni wase-US wenza ukubuyekezwa kwentela yeSigaba 232 ekungenisweni kwensimbi, kanye nokulungiswa okungenzeka kulindeleke ku-Q3 2026. Abathengi kufanele baqaphe intuthuko ukuze babone ukuthi ithinta kanjani ukugeleza kokuhweba ngamapayipi ensimbi.

Ukuvezwa Okuphelele Kwezinto Ezibalulekile: Amabanga Ayisihluthulelo e-Q2 2026

Abathengi abahlela izidingo ze-Q2 kanye neze-Q3 zakuqala kufanele babeke phambili lezi zincazelo ezifunwa kakhulu:

Izicelo Zebanga Lokuqukethwe Okubalulekile Isikhathi Esijwayelekile Sokuhola Isitayela Sokufuna se-Q2

I-API 5L X52/I-X60/I-X65Amapayipi okudlulisa uwoyela negesi izinsuku ezingama-35-45 Ahlala isikhathi eside, anomthamo omkhulu

I-ASTM A106 Ibanga B/C Isevisi yokushisa okuphezulu (amabhoyila, izindawo zokuhlanza, izitshalo zikagesi) Izinsuku ezingama-30-40 Izinzile, isekelwe kabanzi

I-ASTM A335 P11/P22/I-P91Ukukhiqizwa kukagesi, ama-superheater, ama-reheater izinsuku ezingu-45-55 Imijikelezo yokulungisa eqinile

I-ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Izindawo ezigqwalisayo, ukucubungula amakhemikhali, imboni yokudla izinsuku ezingama-40-50 Ezimaphakathi, eziqondene nephrojekthi

Isevisi yezinga lokushisa eliphansi le-ASTM A333 Grade 6 (LNG, cryogenic) Izinsuku ezingama-40-55 ze-Niche, amaphrojekthi akhethekile

I-EN 10210 S355J2H(kuqediwe kahle) Uhlaka lwesakhiwo, ukwakhiwa kwesakhiwo izinsuku ezingu-35-45 Ukukhula, kuqhutshwa yingqalasizinda

I-EN 10219 S355J2H(okwakhiwe ngokubandayo) Izakhiwo zemishini, izisekelo, i-scaffolding Izinsuku ezingama-30-40 Izinzile, itholakala kabanzi

Amashubhu angenamthungo aqondile Amasilinda e-hydraulic, izingxenye zezimoto, imishini izinsuku ezingama-35-50 Okumaphakathi, okuxhunywe ekukhiqizeni

Izincomo Zokuthengwa Kwamasu Evikini Lokugcina Lika-Ephreli

Njengoba iholide likaMeyi lisondela kanye nekota yesibili iqalile, sincoma lezi zinyathelo ezilandelayo:

Qedela Ama-oda Aphuthumayo E-Q2 Kuleli Sonto: Ukuze uthole izidingo zamapayipi angenamthungo, amapayipi e-alloy, ishubhu le-boiler, noma amapayipi amakhulu adingekayo ekulethweni ngasekupheleni kukaMeyi noma ngoJuni, faka ama-oda ngaphambi kuka-Ephreli 29 ukuze uthole isabelo sokukhiqiza ngaphambi kweholide.

Hlela Izikhathi Zokuhola Ngemva Kweholide: Ama-oda abekwe phakathi nesonto lamaholide (Meyi 1-5) azocutshungulwa kusukela ngoMeyi 6. Faka lokhu kumiswa kwezinsuku ezi-5 ekubalweni kwakho kokulethwa, ikakhulukazi kumaphrojekthi athinta isikhathi.

Lungiselela Imibhalo ye-CBAM Kusenesikhathi: Ukuze uthole ukuthunyelwa kwamapayipi ensimbi yekhabhoni, amapayipi ensimbi e-alloy, noma amapayipi angenasici angenamthungo ensimbi engagqwali, cela amaphakheji edatha ephelele ye-carbon footprint - kufaka phakathi izitifiketi zamandla aluhlaza, ukuqinisekiswa kwesilinganiso se-scrap, kanye nemibiko yokukhishwa kwegesi ethile - kusenesikhathi ngaphambi kokuthunyelwa.

Ukuthunyelwa Okuphephile Kwezindawo Eziya EGulf: Ngokuthunyelwa kwamapayipi olayini kanye ne-OCTG eMpumalanga Ephakathi, gcina isikhathi se-buffer samaviki angu-1-2 ekuhleleni kwakho kokuthunyelwa ngenxa yokulungiswa okuqhubekayo komzila kanye nokuminyana okungenzeka kwechweba.

Qapha Inqubomgomo Yokuhweba yase-US: Kubathengi ababhekene nemakethe yase-US, hlala unolwazi ngokubuyekezwa kwentela yeSigaba 232, njengoba izinguquko ezingaba khona zingathinta intengo yamapayipi ensimbi kanye nokugeleza kokuhweba ku-H2 2026.

I-Sanonpipe: Umlingani Wakho Othembekile Phakathi Nemijikelezo Yemakethe

Njengomhlinzeki wesevisi yamapayipi ensimbi asebenza ndawonye, ​​sizibophezele ekubeni ngumlingani othembekile kakhulu emkhakheni wezimboni osezingeni eliphezulu emhlabeni jikelele. Amakhono ethu afaka:

Impahla Ejulile Nehlukahlukene: Cishe amathani angu-200,000 amapayipi ensimbi angenamthungo (insimbi yekhabhoni kanye ne-alloy steel grades), kanye namathani angu-10,000 amapayipi ahlanganisiwe, amapayipi asikwele, amapayipi angunxande, kanye namapayipi ensimbi engagqwali asesitokweni, alungele ukuthunyelwa ngokushesha.

Uchungechunge Lokuphakelwa Kwekhabhoni Eliphansi: Ubambiswano nezimboni ezihlinzeka ngokukhiqiza kwe-EAF, izilinganiso eziphezulu ze-scrap (20-25%), kanye namandla aluhlaza (30-50%), okusekelwa ukubika kwedatha yekhabhoni okuhambisana ne-CBAM kanye nokuqinisekiswa komuntu wesithathu.

Ukusekelwa Kwesevisi Egcwele: Kusukela ekutholeni nasekuqinisekiseni izinto ezingavuthiwe kuya ekusikeni, ekufakeni izintambo, ekumbozeni, ekupakisheni nasekuthumeleni - senza kube lula uchungechunge lwakho lokuhlinzeka kuzo zonke izindawo zomhlaba.

Ukufinyelela Emhlabeni Wonke: Ithimba lethu elinolwazi lokuthumela kwamanye amazwe liphatha ezokuthutha, imibhalo (kufaka phakathi izitifiketi ze-MTC, izitifiketi zokuqala), kanye nokuvunyelwa kwempahla yokuthunyelwa emhlabeni jikelele.

Xhumana nethimba lethu kuleli sonto ukuze uqedele ama-oda akho angaphambi kweholide, ucele amanani amanje, noma uxoxe ngesu lakho lokuthenga le-Q2 ne-Q3 2026. Silapha ukukusiza ukuthi uzulazule emakethe ngokuzethemba.