Mashi 12, 2026 - Ukuhlaziywa Kwemboni kanye Nombono Weqhinga Lamaviki Okugcina ekota yokuqala

Njengoba singena esontweni lesibili likaMashi, kusele isikhathi esingaphansi kwenyanga eyodwa ku-Q1 2026, ipayipi lensimbi elingenamthungo emhlabeni wonke, ipayipi lensimbi elihlanganisiwe, kanye nemakethe yezingxenye zesakhiwo ezingenalutho ibhekene nenselele ekabili: ukungezwani kwezepolitiki okwandayo eMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nokuqaliswa okugcwele kohlelo olusha lwaseYurophu.isithiyo sokuhweba esiluhlazakwensimbi engeniswa kwamanye amazwe. Kubahlinzeki nabathengi abahlose imakethe yaseYurophu, ukuqonda ukuhlangana kwala mandla manje kubalulekile.

Isibuyekezo Sendawo Yezepolitiki: Ukuphazamiseka Kwe-Strait of Hormuz Kuyaqina

Impi yezempi ehilela i-Iran, i-Israel, ne-United States iyaqhubeka nokuba nomthelela ezindleleni zokuhweba zomhlaba wonke kanye nezindleko zamandla.

I-Logistics Chokepoint: I-Strait of Hormuz isalokhu isengozini enkulu, lapho imigqa emikhulu yokuthumela izimpahla ikhokhisa imali eyengeziwe engu-$1,500–$4,000 ngesitsha ngasinye kanye nokushintsha umzila wemikhumbi, okwengeza izinsuku eziyi-10–15 esikhathini sokuhamba kwemithwalo eya ePersian Gulf.

Ukuchayeka Kwesifunda: Nakuba ukuthunyelwa ngqo e-Iran kuncane, amazwe ayisithupha e-Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain) ahlanganisa u-26.3% wokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwepayipi okungenamthungo eShayina—konke okudinga ukudlula e-strait.

Ukusheshisa Izindleko Zamandla: Amanani kawoyela asondela ku-$100/umgqomo, okwandisa izindleko zokukhiqiza zokwenza insimbi yesithando sikagesi esisebenzisa amandla amaningi futhi kucindezela amanani amapayipi ensimbi yekhabhoni, amapayipi ensimbi e-alloy, kanye namapayipi angenamthungo ensimbi engagqwali.

Uhlaka Olusha Lokuhweba Okuluhlaza lwaseYurophu: i-CBAM kanye Nangaphandle Kwalo

Kwabathumeli bangaphandle abahlose imakethe yaseYurophu, u-2026 uphawula unyaka obalulekile. I-Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) ye-EU manje isisebenza ngokugcwele, ishintsha kakhulu indlela ukungeniswa kwamapayipi ensimbi okulawulwa ngayo.

Izidingo ze-CBAM Zabathumeli Bensimbi Abangaphandle

Izibopho Zokubika: Abangenisi kumele manje bamemezele ukukhishwa okuhlanganisiwe kwamapayipi ensimbi angenamthungo, amapayipi ahlanganisiwe, kanye namapayipi esakhiwo, ahlanganisa ukukhishwa okuqondile (Ububanzi 1) kanye nokungaqondile (Ububanzi 2).

Ukuthengwa Kwesitifiketi: Ukukhishwa kwegesi okungaphezu kwezilinganiso ze-EU kudinga ukuthengwa kwezitifiketi ze-CBAM ngentengo exhunywe emananini ekhabhoni e-EU ETS (okwamanje angu-€80-100/tCO₂).

Isikhathi Sokuthobela Imithetho: Indlela ishintsha kusukela ekubikeni kuphela kuya ekulungisweni kwezezimali okugcwele ngo-2026, kanye nezijeziso zokungalandeli imithetho.

Uhlelo Lwezimboni Lwesivumelwano Esiluhlaza se-EU

Umthetho Wemboni Ye-Net-Zero: Ubeka umgomo wobuchwepheshe bamasu (kufaka phakathi insimbi) ukuze kuhlangatshezwane no-40% wesidingo se-EU ngokukhiqiza kwasekhaya ngo-2030, okukhuthaza ukungeniswa kwempahla ngezinyathelo eziqinisekisiwe ezingenayo ikhabhoni eningi.

Imithetho Yokuvuza Kwekhabhoni: Imikhiqizo evela emazweni anezinqubomgomo zesimo sezulu ezingatheni ibhekene nokuhlolwa okwandayo kanye nokulungiswa kwemingcele.

Impendulo Yemboni Yamapayipi Ensimbi YaseShayina: Indlela Yokunciphisa Ikhabhoni Ngama-30%

Ngokuphendula kokubili imithetho yaseYurophu kanye nemigomo yasekhaya ye-dual-carbon, abakhiqizi bamapayipi ensimbi abahamba phambili baseShayina basheshisa ukususwa kwe-carbon. Ngokusekelwe ezintweni zokuqeqesha zakamuva embonini, indlela yokufinyelela ekunciphiseni i-carbon ngo-30%+ ihilela inhlanganisela yobuchwepheshe:

Izindlela Zobuchwepheshe Eziyinhloko

Ukuguqulwa Kwesakhiwo Samandla

Ukufakwa Kwamandla Aluhlaza: Ukwandisa isabelo samandla omoya kanye nelanga ekukhiqizeni. Imizamo kaTianjin Pipe yehlise ukukhishwa kwe-CO₂ kwaminyaka yonke ngamathani angu-220,000. Ukufinyelela amandla aluhlaza angu-50%+ kunganciphisa kakhulu umthelela wekhabhoni wamapayipi ensimbi angenamthungo.

I-Hydrogen Metallurgy: Ukunciphisa okuqondile okusekelwe ku-hydrogen kuvela njengobuchwepheshe obuphambili, obukwazi ukunciphisa ukuqina kokukhishwa komoya kube ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu zezinqubo zendabuko.

Ukuqamba Inqubo

Inqubo Emfushane ye-EAF: Ukushintsha kusuka enqubweni ende ye-blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) kuya enqubweni emfushane ye-electric arc furnace (EAF) kusetshenziswa insimbi eqoshiwe kunganciphisa ukukhishwa ngo-60-75%. Ukukhiqizwa kwamapayipi angenamthungo kwe-Baosteel kusetshenziswa ama-billet e-EAF kufinyelela ingxenye yesithathu yokukhishwa kwemizila yokuguqula.

Isilinganiso Esikhulayo Sezingcezu: Ukwanda ngakunye okungu-10% kokusetshenziswa kwezingcezu kunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni cishe ngo-15%.

Ukuphathwa Kwamandla Edijithali

Amapulatifomu e-smart energy avumela ukuqapha kanye nokwenza ngcono ngesikhathi sangempela. I-Shandong Guangfu Group ithole ukonga amandla okungu-15%+ ngokuthuthukiswa kwemvelo okuhlanganisiwe.

Ukusetshenziswa Okunconywayo Ngezigaba

Isikhathi Sokusetshenziswa Kokunciphisa Ukukhishwa Kwendleleni

Amandla Aluhlaza (30%+) 8-12% Isikhathi esifushane (iminyaka eyi-1-3)

Isilinganiso Sezinto Ezingadingekile (25%+) 10-15% Isikhathi esifushane (iminyaka eyi-1-3)

Ukusebenza Kahle Kakhulu Kwamandla 5-8% Isikhathi esifushane (iminyaka eyi-1-3)

Amandla Aluhlaza (50%+) 15-20% Isikhathi Esimaphakathi (iminyaka emi-3-5)

I-DRI esekelwe ku-hydrogen 30-50% Isikhathi esimaphakathi (iminyaka emi-3-5)

Umzila Ogcwele We-EAF Scrap 60%+ Isikhathi Esimaphakathi (iminyaka emi-3-5)

I-CCUS >90% Isikhathi eside (iminyaka emi-5-10)

Indima Entsha Yenkampani Yezohwebo: Ibhuloho Ledatha Yekhabhoni kanye Nomhlanganisi Wezixazululo

Njengoba kuqokonyiswe ekuqeqeshweni kwamuva kwemakethe yaseYurophu, indima yomthumeli wepayipi lensimbi ishintsha kusukela ekubeni ngumhlinzeki womkhiqizo kuya ekubeni ngumeluleki wokuphathwa kwekhabhoni.

Amakhono Ayinhloko Empumelelo Yemakethe YaseYurophu

Ukucaca Kwedatha Yekhabhoni

Ukugcina izingobo zomlando zekhabhoni yemishini enemininingwane ngezitifiketi zamandla aluhlaza, amarekhodi esilinganiso se-scrap, kanye nedatha yokusetshenziswa kwamandla okukhiqiza

Ukuhlinzeka ngemibiko yezinyathelo zekhabhoni eziqondene neqembu ngokusekelwe kudatha yangempela yokukhiqiza

Ubambiswano Lomshini Osebenzisa I-Carbon Ephansi

Ukusungula uhlu lwabaphakeli abakhethwayo olubeka phambili izigayo ezinamandla aluhlaza angu-≥30%, isilinganiso sezingcezu ezingu-≥20%, noma izinqubo ezigcwele ze-EAF

Ukuqinisekisa amandla okukhiqiza aluhlaza azinikele kumakhasimende aseYurophu

Ukusekelwa Kokuthobela Imithetho

Ukunikeza amathempulethi emibiko yedatha yekhabhoni ehambisana ne-CBAM aqinisekiswe yizinhlangano zangaphandle

Ukweluleka ngezindlela zobuchwepheshe ezingcono kakhulu (isb., amandla e-EAF+aluhlaza ukuze kuncishiswe ngo-60%+, amandla angcolile kakhulu+aluhlaza ukuze kuncishiswe ngo-25-30%)

Intuthuko Ebonisiwe

Amaphrojekthi okuhlola asebenzisa ama-billets esithando sikagesi kanye nogesi oluhlaza ekukhiqizweni kwamapayipi olayini athole ukukhishwa komoya okungu-0.65 tCO₂/ton kuphela—70% ngaphansi kwesilinganiso semboni samathani angu-2.2.

Ubambiswano nezimboni ezikwazi ukunikezela ngamandla aluhlaza ngqo manje selune-40% yamandla okukhiqiza, kanti "uMgqa Womkhiqizo Wokunciphisa Ikhabhoni ongu-30%" uhlose ukunciphisa okwengeziwe kwezinyawo ngo-10-15% kokuthengwa kwe-H2 2026.

Ukugxila Kwezinto Ezibalulekile: Amabanga Ayisihluthulelo Emisebenzi YaseYurophu

Abathengi baseYurophu kufanele babeke phambili abahlinzeki abakwaziyo ukuhlinzeka ngezinguqulo eziqinisekisiwe ze-carbon ephansi zale mikhiqizo efunwa kakhulu:

Ibanga Lezinto Zokusebenza Okujwayelekile Indlela Ephansi Yekhabhoni

I-API 5L X52/I-X60/I-X65Amapayipi kawoyela negesi i-EAF + amandla aluhlaza (ukwehla okungu-60%+)

I-ASTM A106 Ibanga B/C Isevisi yokushisa okuphezulu Isilinganiso esiphezulu se-scrap + amandla aluhlaza (25-30%)

I-ASTM A335 P11/P22/I-P91Amabhoyila akhiqiza ugesi i-DRI esekelwe ku-hydrogen (evelayo)

I-EN 10210 S355J2HIzingxenye ezingenalutho zesakhiwo Amandla aluhlaza + ukulungiswa kwezicucu

I-ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Izindawo ezigqwalisayo okuqukethwe kwe-EAF okungagqwali + okuphinde kwasetshenziswa

Imiphumela Yamasu Okuthengwa Kwekota Yesibili ka-2026

Njengoba ikota yokuqala iphela kule nyanga, ifasitela lokuqinisekisa izikhala zokukhiqiza zekota yesibili liyancipha. Izinto ezibalulekile okufanele uzicabangele zifaka:

Ukuthunyelwa Okuya EYurophu

Cela idatha ye-carbon footprint kanye nemibhalo yesitifiketi esiluhlaza nayo yonke imibuzo

Qinisekisa amakhono omhlinzeki wokubika okuhambisana ne-CBAM

Cabanga ngezivumelwano zesikhathi eside ukuze kuqinisekiswe amandla okukhiqiza aphansi kakhulu

Ukuthunyelwa Okuya EMpumalanga Ephakathi

Cabanga ngokwanda kwezindleko zokuthutha ngo-15-25% kanye nokubambezeleka okungenzeka kwamasonto amabili kuya kwamane

Qinisekisa ukuthi kunezitifiketi zokuhlolwa kwe-Mill ezingenaphutha (i-MTC) kanye nezitifiketi zomsuka ukuze unciphise izingozi zamasiko

Xoxani ngezinye izindlela zokuhambisa imizila nabahlinzeki bezokuthutha

Kuzo Zonke Izidingo ze-Q2

Qedela imininingwane bese ubeka ama-oda phakathi kwamasonto amabili kuya kwamathathu alandelayo

Beka izinto ezisetshenziswa kakhulu: amapayipi amakhulu angenamthungo, amapayipi ensimbi ahlanganisiwe, kanye nezingxenye zesakhiwo ze-EN 10219

Xhumana nabahlinzeki kusenesikhathi ukuze baqonde amashejuli abo okukhiqiza ngemva kwamaholide kanye namakhono abo okunciphisa i-carbon

I-Sanonpipe: Umlingani Wakho we-Green Steel kanye ne-Global Navigation

Njengomhlinzeki wesevisi yamapayipi ensimbi asebenza ndawonye, ​​sizibophezele ekubeni ngumlingani othembekile kakhulu emkhakheni wezimboni osezingeni eliphezulu emhlabeni jikelele. Amakhono ethu afaka:

Ukujula Kwempahla: Cishe amathani angu-200,000 amapayipi ensimbi angenamthungo (ikhabhoni ne-alloy), kanye namathani ayi-10,000 amapayipi ahlanganisiwe, amapayipi asikwele/ayisikwele, kanye namapayipi ensimbi engagqwali.

Uchungechunge Lokuphakelwa Kwekhabhoni Eliphansi: Ubambiswano nezimboni ezihlinzeka ngamandla aluhlaza, izilinganiso eziphezulu ze-scrap, kanye nokukhiqizwa kwe-EAF, okusekelwa yizingobo zomlando zedatha yekhabhoni kanye nokubika okuhambisana ne-CBAM.

Ukusekelwa Kwesevisi Egcwele: Kusukela ekulawulweni kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kuya ekupakisheni, ekupendeni nasekuthumeleni, songa isikhathi samakhasimende nezindleko ngenkathi siqinisekisa ukulandelwa kwemithetho.

Xhumana nethimba lethu namuhla ukuze uxoxe ngesu lakho lokuthenga lekota yesibili ka-2026, ucele izinketho zomkhiqizo osebenzisa ikhabhoni ephansi, noma uthole isiqondiso esithile sokubhekana nezinselele zamanje zezepolitiki nezokulawula.