20 Meyi 2026 - Ukuhlaziywa Kwemboni Kwabathengi Bomhlaba Wonke

Njengoba singena esontweni lesithathu likaMeyi 2026, umhlaba wonkeipayipi lensimbi elingenamthungo,ipayipi lensimbi elihlanganisiwe, futhiingxenye engenalutho yesakhiwoImakethe idlula endaweni yezombusazwe engakaze ibonwe. Phakathi namasonto ambalwa, iShayina isibambe uMongameli wase-US kanye noMongameli waseRussia uPutin emihlanganweni ephezulu, okubonisa ukuthi kungenzeka kube nokulungiswa kabusha kwenqubomgomo yokuhweba yomhlaba wonke. Okwamanje, ukungezwani kweMpumalanga Ephakathi kuyaqhubeka nokuzinza kancane kancane, futhi izimakethe zemali ziyasabela kulezi zinguquko zezwe. Lo mbiko unikeza isibuyekezo esigxile ekuhleleni kokuthengwa kwempahla okunesu.

Ukuphumelela Kwezombusazwe: Izingqungquthela Ezimbili Ezinkulu Zakha Kabusha Indawo

Imiphumela Yengqungquthela Yase-US-China
Ngemuva kwengqungquthela ephawulekayo kamongameli we-US-China ekuqaleni kwale nyanga, izingxoxo zokuqala zezinga lokusebenza seziqalile mayelana nokulungiswa kwenqubomgomo yokuhweba okungenzeka.

Isibuyekezo Sentela Yesigaba 232Amaqembu okusebenza ahlangene abuyekeza ububanzi bezindleko zensimbi, kanti kuxoxwa ngokukhululwa okuqondiwe okungenzeka.ipayipi lensimbi yekhabhonifuthiipayipi lensimbi ye-alloyizigaba. Azikho izinguquko ezisemthethweni ezimenyezelwe, kodwa umfutho wezombusazwe muhle.

Izinyathelo Zokusiza Ukuhweba: Izinhlangothi zombili zivumile ukwenza lula izinqubo zokubhala imibhalo yokuthumela nokungenisa, okunganciphisa izikhathi zokuphatha zokuholaipayipi lensimbi elingenamthungoukuthunyelwa phakathi kwezimakethe ezimbili.

Umthelela Wemakethe Yezimali: Izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-USD/CNY lizinzile ngemuva kokuguquguquka kokuqala, manje selihweba ngaphakathi kobubanzi obuncane njengoba izimakethe zilinde izimemezelo zenqubomgomo eziqondile.

Intuthuko Yengqungquthela YaseRussia NeShayina
Ukuvakasha kukaMongameli Putin eShayina ngasikhathi sinye kuveze imiphumela eminingana ehlobene ne-ipayipi lensimbiimboni:

Ukubambisana Kwengqalasizinda YamandlaIzivumelwano ezintsha mayelana nokuthuthukiswa kwepayipi legesi yemvelo zizothuthukisa isidingo sesikhathi esizayoipayipi lomugqa elinobubanzi obukhulufuthiAmapayipi angenamthungo e-API 5L X65/X70kumaphrojekthi okudlulisa amandla aphesheya kwemingcele.

Izindlela Zezezimali ZokuhwebaUkusetshenziswa okwandisiwe kwezimali zasendaweni kwezivumelwano zokuhwebelana zamazwe amabili (i-Ruble/Yuan) kunganciphisa izindleko zokuguqulwa kwemali yeipayipi lensimbiukuthengiselana phakathi kwezimakethe ezimbili.

Ukulungiswa Kwezimali Zengqalasizinda: Ukuxhumanisa ukuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda yase-Eurasia kuzosekela isidingo seamapayipi esakhiwo,ipayipi lokufaka inqwaba, futhiIzingxenye ezingenalutho ze-EN 10219kwemisebenzi yesitimela kanye nokwakhiwa.

Isibuyekezo Sezepolitiki: Ukungezwani KweMpumalanga Ephakathi Kuyaqhubeka Nokuncipha

Impi yezempi ehilela i-Iran, i-Israel, ne-United States isizinzile kakhulu.

I-Strait of Hormuz: Imisebenzi yasemanzini iyanda njalo. Izindleko ezengeziwe zempahla eziya eGulf ziye zehla kakhulu300–300–1,000 ngesitsha ngasinye, njengoba ukubambezeleka kwezokuthutha sekuncane kakhulu (izinsuku ezingu-2-5 ngaphezu kwesisekelo).

Ukugeleza Kokungenisa KwesifundaAmazwe e-Gulf Cooperation Council atholaipayipi lomugqa,I-OCTG, futhiipayipi lesakhiwoukuthunyelwa okunezikhathi zesikhathi ezicishe zibe ezivamile.

Amanani AmandlaAmanani kawoyela azinzile e-68–68–Ibanga elingu-72/emgqonyeni, ukunciphisa ingcindezi yezindlekoisithando somlilo se-arc kagesiukukhiqizwa kwensimbi.

Isibuyekezo Semakethe sekota yesibili ka-2026: Izisekelo Ezizinzile, Ukuqaphela Inqubomgomo Yokuhweba

Ikota yesibili iyaqhubeka nokukhombisa izimo zemakethe ezilinganiselayo, yize intuthuko yenqubomgomo yezohwebo yethula izinguquko ezingaba khona zesikhathi esimaphakathi.

Ukukhiqizwa Nokunikezwa

Izimboni kulo lonke elase-Asia zisebenza e-Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla angu-75-80%ngomphumela ozinzile weamapayipi ensimbi yekhabhoni,amapayipi ensimbi engxubevange, futhiamapayipi angenamthungo ensimbi engagqwali.

Izikhathi zokuhola zihlala zihambisana:Izinsuku ezingu-30-40ngobaI-ASTM A106 Ibanga BfuthiI-API 5L B,Izinsuku ezingu-45-55ngobaI-ASTM A335uchungechunge lwe-alloy kanyeamapayipi angenamthungo anobubanzi obukhulu.

Isifinyezo Sezinga Lokushintshaniswa (kusukela ngoMeyi 20, 2026)

I-Currency Pair	Ukunyakaza vs. Emasontweni Ama-2 Adlule	Okushoyo Kubathengi
i-USD/CNY	-0.3% (i-yuan iqine kancane)	Ukwenyuka okuncane kwezindleko ze-USD
I-EUR/CNY	-0.2% (isitezi se-yuan)	Umthelela omncane
I-RUB/CNY	+1.5% (i-ruble inamandla kakhulu)	Izindleko eziphansi ze-CNY zezindleko ze-RUB

Abashayeli Besidingo Ngokwemboni Yokusetshenziswa Kokugcina

Umkhakha	Izinga Lomsebenzi Wamanje	Imikhiqizo Eyinhloko Efunwayo
Uwoyela negesi(Emhlabeni jikelele)	Ihlala isikhathi eside, ivolumu ephezulu	I-API 5L X52/I-X60/I-X65 ipayipi lomugqa,I-OCTG,ikheyisi,ipayipi
Ukukhiqizwa Kwamandla	Izinzile, iqhutshwa ukunakekelwa	I-ASTM A213 T11/T22,I-ASTM A335 P11/P22/I-P91amashubhu ebhoyila
Ingqalasizinda(I-Asia, iMpumalanga Ephakathi)	Ukukhula	I-EN 10210 S355J2H,I-EN 10219izigaba,amashubhu asikwele,I-RHS
Ukudluliselwa Kwamandla(Amaphrojekthi amasha omzila wepayipi)	Okusafufusa, okuqhutshwa yizivumelwano phakathi kweRussia neChina	Amapayipi angenamthungo amakhulu ububanzi,Ipayipi lomugqa le-X65/X70

Izindaba Zamuva Zemboni: Amandla, Inqubomgomo Yokuhweba, kanye Nobuchwepheshe

Intuthuko eziningana phakathi noMeyi kuya ekupheleni kwazo zibumba isimo sokuncintisana:

Izivumelwano Zepayipi LaseRussia NelaseShayina: Izivumelwano ezintsha zengqalasizinda yamandla zizothuthukisa isidingoipayipi lomugqa elisezingeni eliphezulufuthiamapayipi angenamthungo anobubanzi obukhulukumaphrojekthi okudlulisa ugesi awela imingcele, kulindeleke ukuthi ukuthengwa kwawo kuqale nge-H2 2026.

Amaqembu Okusebenza Ezohwebo ase-US-China: Imihlangano yokuqala mayelana nokulungiswa kwentela okungenzeka kweSigaba 232 isiphelile. Ababambiqhaza balindele isiqondiso sokuqala zingakapheli izinsuku ezingu-30-60.

Izidingo Zemibhalo ye-CBAMAbathengi baseYurophu bayanda ukucelaamaphakheji edatha ye-carbon footprintngeizitifiketi zamandla aluhlazafuthiukuqinisekiswa kwesilinganiso se-scrapnjengomkhuba ojwayelekile.

Amandla Amasha e-EAF Ayaqhubeka Nokwanda: Okwakamuvaisithando somlilo se-arc kagesi (i-EAF)ukwengezwa kwamapayipi okungenamthungo manje sekukhiqizwa ngokugcwele, okwandisa ukutholakalaamapayipi angenamthungo anekhabhoni ephansingamaphrojekthi anakekela imvelo.

Ukuvezwa Okuphelele Kwezinto Ezibalulekile: Amabanga Ayisihluthulelo e-Q2 2026

Ibanga Lezinto Ezibalulekile	Izinhlelo Zokusebenza Eziyinhloko	Isikhathi esiholayo	Isitayela Sesidingo Sekota Yesibili
I-API 5L X52/X60/X65	Amapayipi kawoyela negesi	Izinsuku ezingu-35-45	Ihlala isikhathi eside, ivolumu ephezulu
I-API 5L X70(ngamaphrojekthi amasha okuhambisa amapayipi)	Ukudluliswa komfutho ophezulu	Izinsuku ezingu-45-55	Okusafufusa, okuqondene nephrojekthi ethile
I-ASTM A106 Ibanga B/C	Isevisi yokushisa okuphezulu	Izinsuku ezingu-30-40	Izinzile, isekelwe kabanzi
I-ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91	Amabhoyila okukhiqiza ugesi	Izinsuku ezingu-45-55	Imijikelezo yokulungisa ezinzile
I-ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L	Izindawo ezonakalisayo	Izinsuku ezingama-40-50	Okumaphakathi, okuqondene nephrojekthi
I-ASTM A333 Ibanga 6	Isevisi yokushisa okuphansi (i-LNG)	Izinsuku ezingama-40-55	I-Niche, ekhethekile
I-EN 10210 S355J2H	Izinhlaka zesakhiwo	Izinsuku ezingu-35-45	Ukukhula, ingqalasizinda
I-EN 10219 S355J2H	Izakhiwo zemishini	Izinsuku ezingu-30-40	Izinzile, itholakala kabanzi

Izincomo Zokuthengwa Kwamasu Eziqondisiwe zangoMeyi 2026

Njengoba isimo sezombusazwe kanye nemakethe sishintsha, sincoma lezi zinyathelo ezilandelayo:

Qapha Intuthuko Yezohwebo Yase-US-China: Kubathengi abahlose imakethe yase-US, hlala unolwazi mayelana nokulungiswa kwentela okungenzeka kweSigaba 232. Noma yikuphi ukwehliswa kungadala ukonga kwezindleko ngokusheshaipayipi elingenamthungofuthiipayipi elihlanganisiweukungenisa impahla kwamanye amazwe.

Lungiselela Isidingo Esisha SepayipiIzivumelwano zamandla phakathi kweRussia neChina zikhombisa isidingo sesikhathi esizayoipayipi lomugqa elisezingeni eliphezulu(X65/X70). Abathengi ababandakanyeka kumaphrojekthi okudlulisa e-Eurasia kufanele baqale ukuhlela imininingwane.

Phatha Ukudalulwa Kwemali: Njengoba kunezinhlobo zemali eziningi ezisetshenziswayo (i-USD, i-EUR, i-RUB), cabanga ngokuguquguquka kwesivumelwano. Ngokuthengiselana namazwe aseRussia, izivumelwano ezibizwa ngama-ruble zingase zinikeze izinzuzo ngemuva kwezivumelwano zengqungquthela.

Faka ama-oda e-Q2 Maduze: Ngobaipayipi elingenamthungo,ipayipi le-alloynomaipayipi lebhoyilaUma kudingeka izidingo zokulethwa ngoJuni-Julayi, faka ama-oda phakathi namasonto amabili azayo ukuze uthole izikhala zokukhiqiza.

Lungiselela Imibhalo ye-CBAM: Uma ukuthunyelwa kuya eYurophu, qiniseka ukuthi kuqediweamaphakheji edatha ye-carbon footprintziyatholakala ekuqaleni kwenqubo yokuthenga.

Cabanga Ngezinketho Ezinekhabhoni Ephansi: Kumaphrojekthi anakekela imvelo, hlolaamapayipi angenamthungo anekhabhoni ephansiezivela ezigayweni ze-EAF - ziya ngokuya zincintisana futhi zitholakala kabanzi.

I-Sanonpipe: Umlingani Wakho Ngokuphathelene Nobunzima Bendawo Yezepolitiki

Njengendawo eyodwa yokumaipayipi lensimbiNjengomhlinzeki wezinsizakalo, sizibophezele ekubeni ngumlingani othembekile kakhulu emkhakheni wezimboni osezingeni eliphezulu emhlabeni jikelele. Amakhono ethu afaka:

Isitoko Esijulile: CisheAmathani angu-200,000 amapayipi ensimbi angenamthungo(ikhabhoni ne-alloy), kanyeAmathani ayi-10,000 amapayipi ahlanganisiwe,amashubhu asikwele,amashubhu angunxande, futhiamapayipi ensimbi engagqwali.

Uchungechunge Lokunikezwa Kwekhabhoni Ephansi: Ubambiswano nezinkampani ezihlinzeka ngemishiniUkukhiqizwa kwe-EAF,izilinganiso eziphezulu ze-scrap(20-25%), kanyeamandla aluhlaza(30-50%), isekelwa ukubika kwedatha yekhabhoni okuhambisana ne-CBAM.

Ubuchwepheshe Bokuhweba Komhlaba Wonke: Siqapha intuthuko yenqubomgomo yokuhweba kanye nokunyakaza kwemali ukuze sinikeze isiqondiso esifike ngesikhathi kumakhasimende ethu.

Xhumana nethimba lethu kuleli sontoukuze uxoxe ngesu lakho lokuthenga lekota yesibili, ucele amanani amanje, noma uthole isiqondiso sokuhamba ngenqubomgomo yokuhweba kanye nentuthuko yemali.