Lub Peb Hlis 26, 2026 - Kev Tshuaj Xyuas Lub Limtiam Kawg thiab Kev Pom Zoo Txog Kev Npaj

Thaum peb nkag mus rau lub lim tiam kawg ntawm lub Peb Hlis 2026, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov yeeb nkab hlau tsis muaj qhov txuas, cov yeeb nkab hlau welded, thiab cov khoom siv hollow section sawv ntawm qhov chaw hloov pauv tseem ceeb. Lub quarter thawj zaug xaus rau qhov keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev kub ntxhov geopolitical hauv Middle East thiab kev npaj sai rau lub quarter thib ob. Nrog rau qhov xwm txheej Strait of Hormuz tseem tsis tau daws thiab kev lag luam zog nyob ntawm ntug, cov neeg yuav khoom rov kho dua cov tswv yim yuav khoom rau lub hlis tom ntej.

Kev Hloov Kho Tshiab Txog Kev Nom Kev Tswv: Kev Nyuaj Siab Ntawm Strait of Hormuz Tseem Muaj

Kev tsov rog uas muaj Iran, Ixayees, thiab Tebchaws Meskas tseem cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb thaum lub quarter xaus.

Kev Cuam Tshuam Txuas Ntxiv Mus: Lub Strait of Hormuz tseem yog ib qho chaw muaj kev pheej hmoo siab rau kev thauj mus los hauv hiav txwv, nrog rau cov kab xa khoom tseem tswj hwm cov txheej txheem hloov chaw thiab cov nqi thauj khoom ntxiv rau cov nkoj uas hla thaj av. Kwv yees li 20% ntawm kev lag luam roj thoob ntiaj teb hla dhau txoj kev no, ua rau muaj kev nyuaj siab rau cov nqi zog.

Kev Cuam Tshuam Rau Kev Thauj Mus Los Hauv Cheeb Tsam: Cov teb chaws hauv Gulf Cooperation Council—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain—uas suav ua ke rau 26.3% ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov yeeb nkab xa tawm, txuas ntxiv muaj lub sijhawm ua cov hlau xa tuaj ntev li 2-4 lub lis piam.

Kev Sib Kis Tus Nqi Zog: Tus nqi roj uas ruaj khov tshaj $85 ib lub thoob tseem ua rau muaj kev nyuaj siab rau tus nqi ntawm kev tsim cov hlau hluav taws xob arc uas siv zog ntau, txhawb nqa tus nqi ruaj khov rau cov kav hlau carbon, cov kav hlau alloy, thiab cov kav hlau stainless seamless.

Q1 2026 Kev Lag Luam Kev Txheeb Xyuas: Ib Feem Plaub ntawm Kev Hloov Pauv

Lub quarter thib ib ntawm xyoo 2026 yuav raug nco ntsoov tias yog lub sijhawm ntawm kev hloov kho dua tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev hloov pauv txoj cai.

Kev Rov Qab Tsim Khoom Tau Ua Tiav Lawm

Tom qab lub sijhawm so ntawm Xyoo Tshiab Lunar ntev, kev tsim cov kav dej tsis muaj qhov txuas, cov kav dej vuam, thiab cov kav dej qauv tau rov qab zoo li qub thoob plaws cov chaw tsim khoom hauv Es Xias.

Kev siv peev xwm rau kev tsim cov yeeb nkab seamless tau txog li ntawm 75% thaum nruab nrab Lub Peb Hlis, nrog rau cov ntawv xaj tom qab los ntawm cov lus cog tseg ua ntej hnub so feem ntau tau raug tshem tawm.

Cov nqi khoom siv raw - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov hlau carbon billets thiab cov khoom sib xyaw - tseem ruaj khov thoob plaws hauv peb lub hlis twg, muab kev txhawb nqa tus nqi tas mus li.

Cov Qauv Kev Xav Tau

Kev Lag Luam Roj thiab Roj Av: Cov xaj ruaj khov rau API 5L kab yeeb nkab, OCTG (Oil Country Tubular Goods), thiab casing tswj hwm qhov kev thov pib.

Kev Tsim Hluav Taws Xob: Cov haujlwm uas xav tau cov raj boiler thiab cov raj hloov cua sov tau pab txhawb rau cov ntim khoom ruaj khov.

Kev Tsim Kho Vaj Tse: Muaj kev thov nruab nrab rau cov kav dej tsim kho, cov kav dej piling, thiab cov kav dej scaffolding thoob plaws cov lag luam Es Xias thiab Middle Eastern.

Kev Ua Tau Zoo ntawm Tus Nqi

Cov nqi yeeb nkab seamless hauv Suav teb tseem nyob hauv qhov nqaim ntawm RMB 4,200–4,280 / ton thoob plaws Q1, uas qhia txog cov hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov.

Cov nqi xa tawm rau ASTM A106 Qib B thiab API 5L X52 tseem ruaj khov, nrog rau qee zaum kev hloov kho siab dua uas cuam tshuam nrog kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi thauj khoom.

Saib Ua Ntej: Kev Kwv Yees Lag Luam Q2 2026

Thaum lub khw tig mus rau lub quarter thib ob, ntau yam tseem ceeb yuav hloov pauv cov xwm txheej kev yuav khoom.

Kev Pom Zoo Txog Kev Muab Khoom

Peev Xwm Tsim Khoom: Cov chaw tsim khoom yuav ua haujlwm ntawm 75-80% peev xwm txog rau lub Plaub Hlis, nrog kev ywj pheej los hloov kho raws li kev txais xaj.

Cov Qib Khoom Muag: Cov khoom muag hauv zej zog tam sim no ntawm cov kav dej tsis muaj seamless hauv Suav teb sawv ntawm kwv yees li 700,000 tons, muab cov khoom tiv thaiv tsim nyog thaum zam kev muab khoom ntau dhau.

Kev Taw Qhia Txog Khoom Siv Raw: Tus nqi hlau thiab coking thee kwv yees tias yuav nyob twj ywm, txhawb nqa cov qauv nqi ruaj khov rau cov kav hlau carbon thiab cov kav hlau alloy.

Cov Kev Xav Tau rau Q2

Kev Txhim Kho Lub Zog: Cov haujlwm tshawb nrhiav roj thiab roj av uas tseem tab tom ua, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv Middle East thiab Central Asia, yuav txhawb nqa qhov kev thov rau OCTG, cov yeeb nkab kab, thiab cov casing.

Kev Ua Kom Muaj Kev Txhim Kho Hauv Paus: Cov haujlwm tsim kho uas tsoomfwv txhawb nqa thoob plaws sab hnub tuaj Asia thiab thaj av Gulf yuav ua rau muaj kev xav tau ntau ntxiv rau cov kav dej, cov raj plaub fab, thiab cov seem hollow.

Kev Txij Nkawm Lub Hoobkas Fais Fab: Kev hloov pauv uas tau npaj tseg hauv cov chaw ua haujlwm thermal thiab nuclear yuav tsav tsheb kom muaj kev txiav txim ruaj khov rau cov raj boiler thiab cov raj hloov pauv cua sov.

Kev Ua Raws Cai ntawm Kev Lag Luam European: Kev siv tag nrho ntawm CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) yuav txhawb nqa cov neeg muab khoom uas muaj peev xwm muab cov kav hlau tsis muaj pa roj carbon tsawg uas tau txheeb xyuas nrog cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj txog lub zog ntsuab thiab cov ntaub ntawv piv txwv pov tseg.

Kev Saib Xyuas Tus Nqi

Kev Ruaj Ntseg Xav Tau: Yog tsis muaj kev nce siab loj hauv ntiaj teb kev nom kev tswv, cov nqi yeeb nkab seamless yuav tseem ruaj khov txog Q2, nrog rau kev hloov kho me ntsis hauv lub Tsib Hlis uas tsav los ntawm kev thov raws caij nyoog.

Tus Nqi Thauj Khoom: Tus nqi thauj khoom hauv dej hiav txwv yuav pom kev nce me ntsis thaum cov kab xa khoom siv cov nqi ntxiv rau lub caij siab tshaj plaws. Cov neeg yuav khoom yuav tsum suav nrog qhov no hauv kev suav tag nrho cov nqi tsaws.

Cov Kev Lag Luam Yuav Tsum Saib Xyuas Hauv Q2 2026

Cov Khoom Tseem Ceeb ntawm Q2 Outlook

Roj thiab Roj AvAPI 5L X52/X60/X65, OCTG, casing Kev thov txuas ntxiv los ntawm cov kev pab cuam drilling nquag

Kev Tsim Hluav Taws XobASTM A213 T11/T22, ASTM A335 P11/P22Cov xaj ruaj khov los ntawm kev saib xyuas lub voj voog

Kev Tsim KhoEN 10210 S355J2H, EN 10219,cov raj plaub fabKev loj hlob nruab nrab los ntawm cov haujlwm tsim kho vaj tse

Cov raj xa dej tsis muaj qhov tsis sib xws, cov raj xa dej kho tshuab Kev thov ruaj khov los ntawm kev tsim khoom

Cov kav dej hlau ntsuab uas tsis muaj carbon ntau, EAF + lub zog ntsuab Ua rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv Tebchaws Europe xav paub ntxiv

Cov Khoom Siv Tseem Ceeb: Cov Qib Tseem Ceeb rau Q2 2026

Cov neeg yuav khoom uas npaj yuav tsum tau ua raws li Q2 yuav tsum muab qhov tseem ceeb rau cov lus qhia no:

Kev Xav Txog Lub Sijhawm Ua Ntej Siv Khoom Siv Qib

API 5L X52/X60/X65 Cov kav dej roj thiab roj av 35-45 hnub; muaj neeg xav tau ntau

ASTM A106 Qib B/C Kev pabcuam kub siab 30-40 hnub; muaj dav dav

ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91 Cov boilers tsim hluav taws xob 45-60 hnub; cov qib alloy xav tau lub sijhawm ua ntej ntev dua

ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Cov chaw xeb 40-50 hnub; hlau tsis xeb

EN 10210 S355J2H Cov Qauvcov seem khoob35-45 hnub; kev thov nce ntxiv

EN 10219Cov ntu uas ua los ntawm cov khoom txias Cov qauv tsim kho siv sijhawm 30-40 hnub; yooj yim nrhiav tau

Cov Lus Qhia Txog Kev Yuav Khoom Rau Q2 2026

Thaum Q1 xaus thiab Q2 xaj tam sim no tau muab tso rau, xav txog cov hauv qab no:

Kev Tso Cai Ua Ntej: Rau cov kev xav tau Q2, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov kav hlau alloy thiab cov kav dej loj uas tsis muaj qhov sib txuas, tso cov xaj hauv ob lub lis piam thawj zaug ntawm lub Plaub Hlis kom ruaj ntseg qhov chaw tsim khoom thiab zam kev ncua sijhawm ua ntej.

Txheeb xyuas cov ntaub ntawv Carbon: Rau cov khoom xa tuaj rau Tebchaws Europe, xyuas kom cov neeg muag khoom tuaj yeem muab tauCBAM-cov ntaub ntawv carbon footprint uas ua raws li txoj cai, suav nrog daim ntawv pov thawj fais fab ntsuab thiab cov ntaub ntawv qhia txog qhov sib piv ntawm cov khib nyiab. Kev txheeb xyuas thaum ntxov tiv thaiv cov teeb meem ua raws li lub sijhawm kawg.

Kev Npaj Logistics Ntau Yam: Nrog rau kev kub ntxhov ntawm Strait of Hormuz tseem muaj, xav txog lwm txoj kev xaiv rau cov khoom thauj mus rau Gulf thiab suav nrog 2-3 lub lis piam buffer rau cov sijhawm xa khoom.

Xauv Tus Nqi Thaum Ntxov: Txawm hais tias tus nqi yuav ruaj khov, kev tau txais cov lus hais ruaj khov thaum ntxov Lub Plaub Hlis tuaj yeem tiv thaiv kev hloov pauv hauv nruab nrab ntawm peb lub hlis twg los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv raw lossis cov nqi thauj khoom.

Sanonpipe: Koj Tus Khub rau Q2 2026 thiab Dhau Mus

Ua ib lub tuam txhab muab kev pabcuam yeeb nkab hlau ib zaug xwb, peb tau teeb tsa los txhawb koj cov kev xav tau Q2 nrog:

Cov Khoom Muag Tag Nrho: Kwv yees li ntawm 200,000 tons ntawm cov kav hlau tsis muaj qhov (carbon thiab alloy), ntxiv rau 10,000 tons ntawm cov kav hlau welded, cov kav hlau square/rectangular, thiab cov kav hlau stainless.

Cov Peev Xwm Tsawg-Carbon: Kev koom tes nrog cov chaw tsim khoom muab lub zog ntsuab, cov khoom seem siab, thiab EAF ntau lawm, txhawb nqa los ntawm kev tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv carbon uas ua raws li CBAM.

Kev Pabcuam Tag Nrho: Txij li kev txheeb xyuas cov khoom siv raw mus rau kev ntim khoom, kev pleev xim, thiab kev xa khoom, peb ua kom koj cov khoom xa tuaj yooj yim dua.

Tiv tauj peb pab neeg hnub no los tham txog koj txoj kev npaj yuav khoom hauv Q2 2026, thov kom muaj tus nqi tam sim no, lossis tau txais cov lus qhia tshwj xeeb txog kev taw qhia txog kev hloov pauv ntawm thaj chaw geopolitical thiab kev cai lij choj.