February 12, 2026 – Strategic Preview: Market Rebound Analysis Post-Holiday

With the 2026 Lunar New Year holiday approaching its conclusion and our operations pausing next week, this is the critical moment for industry stakeholders to look ahead. The imminent market restart in early March will not be a simple return to business as usual. Based on current dynamics, we analyze the key trends and provide a strategic procurement forecast for seamless steel pipes, welded steel pipes, and hollow structural sections to guide your post-holiday planning.

Post-Holiday Market Rebound: A Phased and Impactful Recovery

The market rebound in March will be characterized by distinct phases with specific challenges and opportunities.

Phase 1: Order Backlog Clearance (Early to Mid-March): The initial weeks will be dominated by mills working through the significant backlog of API 5L line pipe, ASTM A106 Grade B seamless tubes, and OCTG (Oil Country Tubular Goods) orders accumulated before the shutdown. Production capacity for carbon steel pipes and alloy steel pipes will be heavily committed, leading to extended lead times for new inquiries. Expect a seller's market for immediate delivery of large-diameter pipes and piling pipe.

Phase 2: Supply-Demand Rebalance (Late March onwards): As backlogs clear, production of welded steel pipes, structural pipes, and precision steel tubes will gradually align with new incoming orders. However, the restart of major infrastructure and energy projects will inject sustained demand. Prices for stainless steel seamless pipes (ASTM A312) and specialty corrosion-resistant alloys are likely to find firm support during this rebalancing act.

Key Disruption Factor: Export License Processing: The new policy will add a consistent 10-15 day administrative layer to shipments. This will be particularly impactful for stainless steel pipe and high-grade alloy pipe exports, potentially creating sporadic short-term logistical bottlenecks even after production normalizes.

2026 Q1-Q2 Bridge Procurement Forecast

Our analysis points to the following key predictions for the procurement landscape spanning late Q1 and early Q2:

Lead Time Normalization: While initial post-holiday lead times for seamless steel pipes may reach 55-60 days, we forecast a gradual reduction to a stable 40-45 day range by late April, barring unforeseen demand surges.

Stable-to-Firm Pricing: Underpinned by raw material costs and steady demand from the oil and gas and construction sectors, we do not anticipate a post-holiday price correction. Instead, prices for carbon steel pipe and standard welded pipe are expected to hold firm, with potential upward pressure on ASTM A335 P91/P92 and duplex stainless steel pipes.

Demand Hotspots: Strong procurement activity is anticipated for:

Energy Transition Projects: Driving demand for line pipe and specialized alloy steel pipes.

Infrastructure Push: Boosting orders for structural hollow sections (EN 10219), scaffolding pipe, and water transmission pipes.

Maintenance & Repair Operations: Supporting steady offtake of boiler tubes, heat exchanger tubes, and mechanical tubing.

Proactive Procurement Strategy: Actions to Take Before the Holiday

Given our upcoming operational pause, we strongly advise clients to take the following actions this week to secure advantage:

Lock in Forward Production Slots: For any project with a confirmed start date in April or May 2026, now is the time to place firm orders or reservations. This is especially crucial for long-lead items like large-diameter seamless pipes, ASTM A335 alloys, or custom EN 10210 S355J2H sections.

Diversify Specifications with Our New Range: Evaluate substituting certain seamless pipe applications with our new, cost-effective welded steel pipe solutions. Also, consider our rectangular hollow sections (RHS) and square tubes for structural designs to optimize cost and availability.

Initiate Comprehensive Supplier Dialogue: Use this pre-holiday week to have detailed discussions with your suppliers. Clarify their restart schedule, confirm their understanding of the new export license process for your required grades, and establish clear communication channels for early March.

Conclusion: Strategic Preparation Defines Post-Holiday Success

The first quarter of 2026 will culminate in a dynamic restart. Success will favor those who have used the quiet before the storm to plan strategically. By forecasting demand, securing early capacity, and understanding the new logistics landscape, buyers can transform the post-holiday recovery from a period of friction into an opportunity for efficient project execution.

We are your strategic partner in this transition. Our expertise spans the entire range from seamless pressure pipes to welded structural tubes and European standard hollow sections. We are here to help you build a resilient and responsive procurement plan for the coming quarter.

Contact our team before we break for the holiday to finalize your forward order strategy and ensure a seamless transition into a productive March.