26 Machi, 2026 - Kusanthula kwa Sabata Yomaliza ndi Malingaliro Abwino

Pamene tikulowa mlungu womaliza wa Marichi 2026, msika wapadziko lonse wa chitoliro chachitsulo chosasunthika, chitoliro chachitsulo cholumikizidwa, ndi msika wa gawo lopanda kanthu uli pamalo ofunikira kwambiri. Kotala loyamba limatha motsutsana ndi kusamvana kwandale ku Middle East komanso kufulumizitsa kukonzekera kotala lachiwiri. Popeza vuto la Strait of Hormuz silinathetsedwe ndipo misika yamagetsi ili pachiwopsezo, ogula akusintha njira zogulira zinthu m'miyezi ikubwerayi.

Zosintha Zandale: Mikangano ya Strait of Hormuz Ikupitirirabe

Mkangano wankhondo wokhudza Iran, Israel, ndi United States ukupitilirabe kukhudza kayendetsedwe ka malonda padziko lonse lapansi pamene kotala lachinayi likutha.

Kusokonezeka Komwe Kukuchitika: Mphepete mwa nyanja ya Hormuz ikadali malo oopsa kwambiri otsekereza sitima zapamadzi, pomwe sitima zonyamula katundu zimasunga njira zosinthira njira komanso ndalama zowonjezera zonyamula katundu pa sitima zodutsa m'derali. Pafupifupi 20% ya malonda amafuta padziko lonse lapansi amadutsa mumsewuwu, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ndalama zamagetsi zikwere.

Zotsatira za Kayendetsedwe ka Zinthu Zachigawo: Mayiko a Gulf Cooperation Council—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain—omwe onse pamodzi amapanga 26.3% ya katundu wotumizidwa kunja kwa China ndi mapaipi osasunthika, akupitilizabe kukhala ndi nthawi yayitali yotumizira zitsulo zomwe zikubwera kuchokera ku China kwa milungu iwiri mpaka inayi.

Kutumiza Mtengo wa Mphamvu: Mitengo yamafuta yopitilira $85 pa mbiya ikusungabe kupsinjika kwa mtengo pakupanga chitsulo chamagetsi cha arc chomwe chimagwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zambiri, kuthandizira mitengo yamakampani ya mapaipi achitsulo cha kaboni, mapaipi achitsulo cha alloy, ndi mapaipi osapanga dzimbiri opanda msoko.

Chidule cha Msika wa Q1 2026: Kotala la Kusintha

Kotala yoyamba ya 2026 idzakumbukiridwa ngati nthawi yokonzanso unyolo wogulira ndi kusintha mfundo.

Kubwezeretsa Ntchito Kwatha

Pambuyo pa nthawi yayitali yopuma ya Chaka Chatsopano cha Mwezi, kupanga mapaipi opanda msoko, mapaipi olumikizidwa, ndi machubu omangidwa kwakhala koyenera m'mafakitale aku Asia.

Kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu popanga mapaipi osasunthika kunafika pafupifupi 75% pofika pakati pa mwezi wa Marichi, ndipo kuchuluka kwa maoda omwe anaperekedwa asanapite ku tchuthi kunathetsedwa kwambiri.

Mitengo ya zinthu zopangira—makamaka za zitsulo za carbon ndi zinthu zopangira zitsulo—inakhalabe yolimba nthawi yonse ya kotala, zomwe zinapereka chithandizo chokhazikika cha mtengo.

Mapangidwe Ofunikira

Gawo la Mafuta ndi Gasi: Maoda okhazikika a chitoliro cha mzere wa API 5L, OCTG (Katundu wa Mafuta a Dziko la Tubular), ndi chivundikirocho zinasunga kufunikira koyambira.

Kupanga Mphamvu: Mapulojekiti omwe amafuna machubu a boiler ndi machubu osinthira kutentha adathandizira kuti maoda azikhala okhazikika.

Zomangamanga: Kufunika pang'ono kwa mapaipi omangira nyumba, mapaipi omangira nyumba, ndi mapaipi omangira nyumba m'misika yonse ya ku Asia ndi Middle East.

Magwiridwe Abwino a Mitengo

Mitengo ya mapaipi osasunthika m'nyumba ku China inakhalabe mkati mwa RMB 4,200–4,280/tani mu kotala loyamba, zomwe zikusonyeza kufunika koyenera kwa zinthu.

Mitengo yotumizira kunja ya ASTM A106 Giredi B ndi API 5L X52 inali yokhazikika, ndipo nthawi zina kukwera kwa mitengo yonyamula katundu kunkagwirizana ndi kusinthasintha kwa mtengo wotumizira katundu.

Kuyang'ana Patsogolo: Kuneneratu kwa Msika wa Kotala lachiwiri la 2026

Pamene msika ukusunthira ku kotala lachiwiri, zinthu zingapo zofunika zidzasintha momwe zinthu zimakhalira.

Chiyembekezo cha Kupereka

Kuchuluka kwa Kupanga: Mafakitale akuyembekezeka kugwira ntchito pa 75-80% mpaka Epulo, ndi kusinthasintha kosintha kutengera kuchuluka kwa oda.

Mulingo wa Zinthu Zomwe Zili M'nyumba: Zinthu zomwe zilipo panopa za mapaipi osasunthika ku China zili pafupifupi matani 700,000, zomwe zimathandiza kuti pakhale chitetezo chokwanira komanso kupewa kuchulukirachulukira kwa zinthu.

Njira Yopangira Zinthu Zopangira: Mitengo ya chitsulo ndi malasha ophikira ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe yogwirizana ndi njira zosiyanasiyana, zomwe zikuthandizira mitengo yokhazikika ya mapaipi achitsulo cha kaboni ndi mapaipi achitsulo cha alloy.

Zoyendetsa Zofunikira za Q2

Kukonzanso Gawo la Mphamvu: Mapulojekiti ofufuza mafuta ndi gasi omwe akupitilira, makamaka ku Middle East ndi Central Asia, apitiliza kufunikira kwa OCTG, chitoliro cha mzere, ndi chivundikiro.

Kupititsa patsogolo Zomangamanga: Mapulojekiti omanga othandizidwa ndi boma ku Southeast Asia ndi chigawo cha Gulf akuyembekezeka kuwonjezera kufunikira kwa mapaipi omangira nyumba, machubu ozungulira, ndi magawo ozungulira okhala ndi dzenje.

Kukonza Malo Opangira Magetsi: Kukonzekera kusintha kwa malo otenthetsera ndi nyukiliya kudzapangitsa kuti machubu a boiler ndi machubu osinthira kutentha azigwira ntchito bwino.

Kutsatira Malamulo a Msika ku Ulaya: Kukhazikitsa kwathunthu kwa CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) kudzakomera ogulitsa omwe angathe kupereka mapaipi otsimikizika achitsulo chopanda mpweya woipa okhala ndi deta yolembedwa ya mphamvu yobiriwira komanso chiŵerengero cha zinyalala.

Chiyembekezo cha Mitengo

Kukhazikika Koyembekezeredwa: Popanda kukwera kwakukulu kwa ndale, mitengo ya mapaipi yosasunthika ikuyembekezeka kukhalabe yokhazikika mpaka kotala lachiwiri, ndi kusintha pang'ono komwe kungachitike mu Meyi chifukwa cha kufunikira kwa nyengo.

Zinthu Zokhudza Katundu: Mitengo ya katundu wa m'nyanja ikhoza kukwera pang'ono pamene makampani otumiza katundu akukhazikitsa ndalama zowonjezera pa nyengo. Ogula ayenera kuwerengera izi powerengera ndalama zonse zomwe zafika pamalopo.

Magawo a Msika Oyenera Kuyang'aniridwa mu Kotala lachiwiri la 2026

Zogulitsa Zofunika za Gawo la Q2

Mafuta ndi GasiAPI 5L X52/X60/X65, OCTG, chidebe Kufunika kosatha kuchokera ku mapulogalamu obowola omwe akugwira ntchito

Kupanga MphamvuASTM A213 T11/T22, ASTM A335 P11/P22Maoda okhazikika kuchokera kuzinthu zosamalira

Ntchito yomangaEN 10210 S355J2H, EN 10219,machubu ozunguliraKukula pang'ono kuchokera ku mapulojekiti a zomangamanga

Machubu olondola a mafakitale, machubu amakina, kufunikira kokhazikika kuchokera ku gawo lopanga zinthu

Chitsulo Chobiriwira Mapaipi opanda mpweya wochepa, EAF + mphamvu yobiriwira Chidwi chikuwonjezeka kuchokera kwa ogula aku Europe

Kuyang'ana Kwambiri: Magiredi Ofunika a Kotala Lachiwiri 2026

Ogula omwe akukonzekera zofunikira za Q2 ayenera kuika patsogolo izi zomwe zimafunidwa kwambiri:

Kuganizira za Nthawi Yothandizira Kugwiritsa Ntchito Kalasi ya Zinthu

Mapaipi a mafuta ndi gasi a API 5L X52/X60/X65 a masiku 35-45; kufunikira kwakukulu

ASTM A106 Giredi B/C Utumiki wotentha kwambiri masiku 30-40; umapezeka kwambiri

Ma boiler opangira magetsi a ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91 amatenga masiku 45-60; ma grade a alloy amafuna nthawi yayitali yogwiritsira ntchito

ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Malo owononga masiku 40-50; chitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri

Kapangidwe ka EN 10210 S355J2Hmagawo opanda kanthuMasiku 35-45; kufunikira kukuwonjezeka

EN 10219Magawo opangidwa ndi ozizira Mafelemu omanga a masiku 30-40; amapezeka mosavuta

Malangizo Ogulira Zinthu Mwanzeru a Kotala Lachiwiri la 2026

Popeza maoda a Q1 ndi Q2 akuperekedwa tsopano, ganizirani izi:

Kuyika Oda Pasadakhale: Pazofunikira za Q2, makamaka mapaipi achitsulo cha alloy ndi mapaipi akuluakulu osapindika, ikani oda mkati mwa milungu iwiri yoyambirira ya Epulo kuti mupeze malo opangira ndikupewa nthawi yowonjezera yopezera oda.

Tsimikizirani Zolemba za Carbon: Pa zotumiza zopita ku Europe, onetsetsani kuti ogulitsa akhoza kuperekaCBAM- deta yogwirizana ndi carbon footprint, kuphatikizapo satifiketi ya green power ndi zikalata zokhudzana ndi chiŵerengero cha zinthu zotsalira. Kutsimikizira koyambirira kumaletsa mavuto okhudzana ndi kutsata malamulo mphindi yomaliza.

Kusinthasintha Kukonzekera kwa Zinthu: Popeza kusamvana kukupitirirabe mu Strait of Hormuz, ganizirani njira zina zoyendetsera katundu wopita ku Gulf ndikugwiritsa ntchito njira zotetezera zomwe zingachitike kwa milungu iwiri kapena itatu kuti zigwiritsidwe ntchito potumiza katundu.

Ikani Mitengo Mosakhalitsa: Ngakhale kuti mitengo ikuyembekezeredwa kukhazikika, kupeza mitengo yotsika mtengo kumayambiriro kwa Epulo kungateteze ku kusintha kulikonse kwapakati pa kotala komwe kumachitika chifukwa cha zinthu zopangira kapena kusuntha kwa mitengo yonyamula katundu.

Sanonpipe: Mnzanu wa Kotala lachiwiri la 2026 ndi kupitirira apo

Monga opereka chithandizo cha mapaipi achitsulo omwe amagwira ntchito nthawi imodzi, tili ndi malo okwanira othandizira zofunikira zanu za Q2 ndi:

Zinthu Zonse Zosungidwa: Pafupifupi matani 200,000 a mapaipi achitsulo chosasunthika (kaboni ndi aloyi), kuphatikiza matani 10,000 a mapaipi olumikizidwa, machubu a sikweya/amakona anayi, ndi mapaipi achitsulo chosapanga dzimbiri.

Mphamvu Zochepa za Mpweya Woipa: Mgwirizano ndi mphero zomwe zimapereka mphamvu zobiriwira, kuchuluka kwa zinyalala zambiri, komanso kupanga kwa EAF, mothandizidwa ndi malipoti a data ya kaboni omwe amatsatira CBAM.

Thandizo la Utumiki Wonse: Kuyambira kutsimikizira zinthu zopangira mpaka kulongedza, kuphimba, ndi kutumiza, timachepetsa unyolo wanu wogulira.

Lumikizanani ndi gulu lathu lero kuti mukambirane za njira yanu yogulira zinthu mu kotala lachiwiri la 2026, pemphani mitengo yamakono, kapena mulandire malangizo enieni okhudza kuyendetsa bwino malo osinthira andale ndi malamulo.