I. Ukusasazwa kweNtsimbi yeHlabathi: Isikhundla esiPhambili saseTshayina

Isiphumo seNtsimbi eKrwada yeHlabathi

Ngowama-2024, imveliso yentsimbi eluhlaza kwihlabathi liphela ifikelele kwi-1.8826 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka kwe-0.8%. Ngokwengingqi, i-Asia yayinemveliso ephezulu (ngaphezulu kwe-1 yeebhiliyoni zeetoni ukusuka ku-Epreli ukuya kuDisemba ka-2024), ilandelwa yi-EU27, iMntla Melika, iRussia Commonwealth of Independent States kunye namanye amazwe aseYurophu.

Amazwe ali-10 aphezulu avelisa intsimbi ekrwada kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2024

Imveliso yamazwe ali-10 avelisa intsimbi eluhlaza ngo-2024 yile ilandelayo:

Uhlu lwezikhundla	Ilizwe	Isiphumo seNtsimbi eKrwada sika-2024
1	iTshayina	Iitoni eziyi-1.01 zeebhiliyoni
2	Indiya	Iitoni ezili-150 lezigidi
3	Japhan	Iitoni ezingama-84 ezigidi
4	Amazwe Amanyene	Iitoni ezingama-79.5 ezigidi
5	Rhashiya	Iitoni ezingama-71 ezigidi
6	Khoriya eseMzantsi	Malunga ne-65 yezigidi zeetoni (kuqikelelwa)
7	Jemani	Malunga ne-40 yezigidi zeetoni (kuqikelelwa)
8	IsiTurkey	Malunga ne-37 yezigidi zeetoni (kuqikelelwa)
9	Brazil	Malunga ne-32 yezigidi zeetoni (kuqikelelwa)
10	i-Iran	Malunga ne-31 yezigidi zeetoni (kuqikelelwa)

I-China lelona lizwe likhulu kwihlabathi elivelisa intsimbi, apho imveliso yentsimbi eluhlaza ifikelela kwiitoni ezili-1.01 zeebhiliyoni ngo-2024, idlula kakhulu ezinye izizwe. I-India, iJapan, i-United States kunye neRashiya zibekwe kwindawo yesibini ukuya kweyesihlanu ngokulandelelana.

II. Ukuthunyelwa Kweentsimbi Kwihlabathi: I-China Ikhokela

Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweemveliso zentsimbi ezigqityiweyo nezigqityiweyo kwihlabathi liphela zifikelele kwiitoni ezingama-449 ezigidi ngo-2024.

Amazwe ama-3 aphezulu athumela ngaphandle intsimbi kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2024

ITshayina: Iitoni ezili-117 lezigidi (zinyuke nge-24.2% ngonyaka), zibiza i-26.0%, zibekwe kwindawo yokuqala kwihlabathi liphela.

IJapan: iitoni ezingama-31.2 ezigidi (zehle nge-3.1% ngonyaka).

ISouth Korea: iitoni ezingama-28.2 ezigidi (zinyuke nge-3.7% ngonyaka).

Amanye amazwe aquka iJamani, iRashiya kunye neTürkiye athumela ngaphandle iitoni ezingama-270 ezigidi xa zizonke.

Ngokuthumela ngaphandle iitoni ezili-117 lezigidi, iTshayina ikhokela imakethi yokuthumela ngaphandle intsimbi yehlabathi ngesabelo se-26%, isebenza njengomdlali ophambili kurhwebo lwentsimbi lwehlabathi.

III. Iziphumo kunye nokuThunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweMibhobho yeNsimbi yaseTshayina: Isikhungo seHlabathi seMibhobho yeNsimbi

Imveliso yemibhobho yentsimbi yehlabathi ibimalunga ne-150 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2023, apho i-Asia ingaphezulu kwe-80% kwaye i-China inegalelo elingaphezulu kwe-60%.

I-China ibambe isikhundla esiphezulu kakhulu kwimveliso yemibhobho yentsimbi kwihlabathi liphela. Ngo-2024, i-China ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu kwimveliso yemibhobho yentsimbi ethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe:

Isimbuku seepayipi zentsimbi ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe: malunga neetoni ezili-11 lezigidi, zinyuke nge-9.8% ngonyaka xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka (irekhodi elitsha liphezulu)

Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo: malunga ne-5.68–5.72 yezigidi zeetoni, ezibalelwa kwi-51% 52% yemibhobho yentsimbi iyonke ethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe

Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngemibhobho yentsimbi edityanisiweyo: malunga neetoni ezi-5.33 yezigidi (ukuphakama okutsha), ukunyuka ngama-20.18% ngonyaka xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka

IV. Iipayipi zeNsimbi ezingenamthungo: Gxila kwiindidi zeMveliso eziPhambili

Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo eTshayina kufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu elitsha leetoni ezi-5.7211 ezigidi ngo-2024, ukunyuka kwe-1% ngonyaka xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka, okubangela i-19.26% yemveliso yemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo yasekhaya. Imveliso yasekhaya ifikelele malunga ne-29.7 ezigidi zeetoni ngo-2024.

Iimarike eziphambili zokuthumela ngaphandle: i-United Arab Emirates, i-Indonesia, i-Oman, i-India, i-Türkiye, i-Thailand, i-South Korea, i-Kuwait, i-Nigeria, i-Saudi Arabia, njl.

V. Uhlalutyo lweCandelo:Iityhubhu zeBoiler, Iipayipi zomgcaIityhubhu zoomatshini kunye nezolwakhiwo

1. Iityhubhu zeBoiler

Imveliso yeetyhubhu zentsimbi ezingenamthungo zebhoyila yoxinzelelo oluphezulu ifikelele kwi-2.1434 yezigidi zeetoni ngo-2024, ngexabiso lokuthengisa eliphakathi le-USD 525 ngetoni.

Ubungakanani bemarike yehlabathi: malunga ne-USD 11.25 yeebhiliyoni, kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-USD 16.32 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2031, nge-CAGR emalunga ne-5.1%.

Izicelo eziphambili: iimeko zobushushu obuphezulu kunye noxinzelelo oluphezulu kuquka iibhoyila zesikhululo samandla, ii-superheater kunye nee-heat exchangers.

Iityhubhu zebhoyila zinexabiso elongezelelekileyo kunye nemiqobo yobugcisa, emele iimveliso zemibhobho yentsimbi yexabiso eliphezulu. Ukukhula kwemfuno yazo kunxulunyaniswa ngokusondeleyo notshintsho lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela, ukwakhiwa kwezikhululo zamandla ezintsha kunye nokuhlaziywa kwezityalo ezindala, nge-CAGR ephezulu kunenqanaba eliqhelekileyo lemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo.

2. Iipayipi zoMgca (Uthotho lwe-API 5L)

Ubungakanani bemarike ye-Global API line pipe: malunga ne-USD 8.53 billion (2024), kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-USD 12.11 billion ngo-2032, nge-CAGR emalunga ne-4.5%.

Ubungakanani bemarike yentsimbi yemibhobho yeoyile negesi kwihlabathi liphela: inkulu malunga ne-USD 128 yezigidigidi ngo-2024, kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-USD 192 yezigidigidi ngo-2032, nge-CAGR emalunga ne-4.3%.Izicelo eziphambili: imibhobho yokuhambisa ioyile negesi ekude kunye neziseko ezixhasayo.

Njengezixhobo eziphambili zokwakha iziseko zophuhliso zamandla, iipayipi zomgca ziyaxhamla kwiimfuno zophuhliso lweoyile negesi kwihlabathi liphela kunye nokuhlaziywa kweepayipi. Isatifikethi se-API 5L sisebenza njengomda wokufikelela kwimarike, iTshayina yenye yezona ndawo ziphambili zokubonelela.

3. Iityhubhu zoomatshini kunye nezolwakhiwo

Imakethi yemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo yehlabathi ifikelele kwi-USD ezingama-221.8 zeebhiliyoni ngo-2024, kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-USD ezingama-309.9 zeebhiliyoni ngo-2030, nge-CAGR emalunga ne-5.7%.

Iipayipi zentsimbi engenamthungo ezakhiweyo zisetyenziswa kakhulu kwizibonelelo zobunjineli, ukwenziwa kweemoto, izixhobo ze-hydraulic, njl. Iipayipi zentsimbi engenamthungo ezikhutshiweyo: umthamo wentengiso yehlabathi jikelele omalunga neetoni ezingama-860,000 ngo-2024, ixabiso lokuthengisa eliphakathi elimalunga ne-USD 1,420 ngetoni, zisetyenziswa kakhulu kwiibhoyila ezinoxinzelelo oluphezulu, uthumelo lweoyile negesi, oomatshini bobunjineli, iimoto, ishishini lomkhosi kunye nezakhiwo zobunjineli zaselwandle.

Iityhubhu zoomatshini nezolwakhiwo zezona ntlobo ziphambili zemveliso ezisisiseko zeepayipi zentsimbi engenamthungo. Zixhaswa lutyalo-mali lweziseko zophuhliso zehlabathi kunye nophuhliso lwemveliso, zakha inxalenye ebalulekileyo yemarike yeepayipi zentsimbi engenamthungo.

VI. Isishwankathelo seDatha iyonke

Udidi lweMveliso	Iziphumo zeHlabathi / Ubungakanani beMarike	Iziphumo / Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kweTshayina	Idigri ehambelanayo yeI-Sanonpipe
Intsimbi Engcolileyo	Iitoni eziyi-1.8826 zeebhiliyoni	Iitoni eziyi-1.01 zeebhiliyoni (imveliso)	Isiseko seShishini
Ukuthunyelwa Kweentsimbi Kumanye Amazwe	Iitoni ezingama-449 ezigidi (ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe)	Iitoni ezili-117 lezigidi (ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe)	Umthumeli-mpahla omkhulu kwihlabathi liphela
Iipayipi zentsimbi	Malunga ne-150 yezigidi zeetoni (imveliso)	Malunga ne-29.7 yezigidi zeetoni (imveliso yepayipi engenamthungo)5.72 yezigidi zeetoni (ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwepayipi engenamthungo)	Ngaphezulu kwama-60% emveliso yehlabathi
Iityhubhu zeBoiler	Iibhiliyoni ezili-11.25 zeerandi	Iitoni ezizigidi eziyi-2.1434 (imveliso)	Ukufanisana Okuphezulu (i-CAGR 5.1%, iCandelo Eliphezulu)
Iipayipi zomgca	I-USD 8.53 yezigidigidi (i-API)	Ifakiwe kumxube wokuthumela ngaphandle wepayipi engenamthungo	Ukulingana Okuphezulu (i-CAGR 4.5%, eqhutywa ziziseko zophuhliso zamandla)
Iityhubhu zeZakhiwo / zoMatshini	Iibhiliyoni ezingama-USD ezingama-221.8 (iipayipi ezingenanto zizonke)	Ifakwe kumxube wepayipi ongenamthungo	Ukutshatisa, Udidi lweMveliso oluSisiseko

VII. Uhlalutyo lweShishini lweI-Sanonpipe

Iingcinga eziphambili ezifunyenwe kwidatha engentla:

1. Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemibhobho yentsimbi eTshayina kuyaqhubeka nokukhula. ITshayina ithumele kwamanye amazwe malunga neetoni ezili-11 lezigidi zeepayipi zentsimbi ngo-2024, ifikelela kwinqanaba eliphezulu elitsha. Njengeshishini lorhwebo lwangaphandle lwemibhobho yentsimbi yaseTshayina,I-Sanonpipeibekwe kwindlela yokunyuka kweshishini kunye namathuba athembisayo okuthumela ngaphandle.
2. Ukuxhomekeka kwepayipi yentsimbi engenamthungo kuyanda ngokuthe chu. Ukuthunyelwa kwepayipi yentsimbi engenamthungo kudlule phantse i-20% yemveliso yasekhaya ngo-2024, kunye nemfuno yasekhaya ezinzileyo. Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kube ngumqhubi omkhulu wokukhula.I-SanonpipeIsicwangciso se-100% esijolise kurhwebo lwangaphandle sihambelana ngokugqibeleleyo neendlela zoshishino.
3. Iityhubhu zebhoyila kunye neepayipi zomgca ziindidi zexabiso eliphezulu ezongeziweyo. Iityhubhu zebhoyila zifikelela kwi-CAGR ye-5.1% kwaye iipayipi zomgca ziyi-4.5%, zombini ziphezulu kunezinga lokukhula lilonke leepayipi zentsimbi engenamthungo (2.7% 2.9%).I-SanonpipeUkugxila kwezi ndidi zimbini zokukhula okuphezulu kunceda ukuphucula imida yenzuzo, ngokuhambelana nedatha ebonisa imida yenzuzo iyonke inyuka ukusuka kwi-3.5% ukuya kwi-5.2%.
4. Imfuno yehlabathi ibonisa ukwahlulwahlulwa okwahlukeneyo.I-Sanonpipeibeka phambili iimarike kuMbindi Mpuma, eMzantsi-mpuma Asia, eYurophu nakwezinye iindawo, ulwalathiso olucwangcisiweyo olufanelekileyo.
5. Ilizwekazi laseTshayina lelona lizwe likhulu emhlabeni elivelisa imibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo. Imveliso yemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo yasekhaya ifikelele kwi-29.7 yezigidi zeetoni, ibekwe kwindawo yokuqala kwihlabathi liphela. Ixhomekeke kwimithombo emikhulu yesinyithi saseTshayina (TPCO, Baotou Iron & Steel, Hengyang Steel Tube, njl.njl.),I-Sanonpipeinandipha iingenelo zothungelwano lokubonelela oluphezulu.
6. Iityhubhu zoomatshini nezolwakhiwo zisebenza njengeendidi ezisisiseko ezongezelelweyo. Ubungakanani bemarike yemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo kwihlabathi liphela bukhulu kakhulu. Njengezixhobo zokwakha ezisisiseko ezinemfuno ezinzileyo, zinokutyebisa iipotifoliyo zemveliso ngaphandle kokuthatha izixhobo eziphambili ezininzi.
7. Uxinaniso lwemarike luyanda. Amashishini ali-10 aphezulu avelisa ngaphezulu kwe-76% yemveliso yemibhobho edityanisiweyo kunye ne-54% yemveliso yemibhobho engenamthungo, kunye nokuhlanganiswa okuqhubekayo kweshishini. Ngokuseka iingenelo ezahlukeneyo ngokusebenzisa ubuchule kunye neenkonzo ezenziwe ngokwezifiso,I-Sanonpipeikulungele ukufumana isabelo semarike esingakumbi phakathi kokwanda koxinzelelo.

Isishwankathelo esingundoqo: I-China yeyona mveliso inkulu kwihlabathi liphela kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle iipayipi zentsimbi. Sigxila kwiindidi zepayipi zentsimbi ezingenamthungo — iityhubhu zebhoyila kunye neepayipi zomgca, zibonelela ngeenkonzo zobungcali ezisemgangathweni ophezulu, ezikhawulezayo, ezingenabungozi, kunye neenkonzo zobungcali eziphantsi kwekhabhoni kwiimarike zamandla zehlabathi kunye neziseko zophuhliso.