Ngomhla wama-26 kweyoKwindla, ngo-2026 – Uhlalutyo lweVeki yokugqibela kunye neMbono yoBuchule

Njengoko singena kwiveki yokugqibela kaMatshi 2026, ipayiphu yentsimbi engenamthungo yehlabathi, ipayiphu yentsimbi edibeneyo, kunye nemarike yecandelo elingenanto ikwindawo ebalulekileyo yotshintsho. Ikota yokuqala iphela emva kwengxaki yezopolitiko eqhubekayo kuMbindi Mpuma kunye nokukhawulezisa amalungiselelo ekota yesibini. Njengoko imeko yeStrait of Hormuz ingasonjululwanga kwaye iimarike zamandla zisengxakini, abathengi bahlaziya amaqhinga okuthenga kwiinyanga ezizayo.

Uhlaziyo lwezelizwe: Uxinzelelo lweStrait of Hormuz luyaqhubeka

Ingxabano yomkhosi ebandakanya i-Iran, i-Israel, kunye ne-United States iyaqhubeka nokuba nefuthe kwindlela yorhwebo lwehlabathi njengoko ikota iphela.

Ukuphazamiseka Okuqhubekayo: I-Strait of Hormuz isaqhubeka nokuba yindawo enobungozi kakhulu yokuvalwa kolwandle, apho imigca yokuthutha igcina iindlela zokutshintsha indlela kunye neentlawulo ezongezelelweyo zemithwalo kwiinqanawa ezidlula kulo mmandla. Malunga ne-20% yorhwebo lweoyile lwehlabathi ludlula kule ndlela, lugcina uxinzelelo oluphezulu kwiindleko zamandla.

Impembelelo yoThutho lweSithili: Amazwe eBhunga leNtsebenziswano yeGulf—iSaudi Arabia, i-UAE, i-Iraq, iKuwait, iQatar, iBahrain—aquka i-26.3% yeepayipi ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ezingenamthungo eTshayina, aqhubeka nokubona amaxesha okuhanjiswa kwentsimbi angaphezulu kweeveki ezi-2-4.

Ukuhanjiswa kweendleko zamandla: Amaxabiso eoyile ahlala ixesha elide angaphezu kwe-$85 ngebhareli nganye agcina uxinzelelo lweendleko kwimveliso yentsimbi yombane ye-arc furnace esebenzisa amandla amaninzi, exhasa amaxabiso aqinileyo emibhobho yentsimbi yekhabhoni, imibhobho yentsimbi ye-alloy, kunye nemibhobho yentsimbi engenasici engenamthungo.

Isishwankathelo seMarike sekota yokuqala ka-2026: Ikota yoTshintsho

Ikota yokuqala ka-2026 iya kukhunjulwa njengexesha lokulungiswa ngokutsha kwekhonkco lokubonelela ngeenkonzo kunye nokulungiswa komgaqo-nkqubo.

Ukubuyiselwa Kwemveliso Kugqityiwe

Emva kokuyeka ixesha elide loNyaka oMtsha weLunar, ukuveliswa kwemibhobho engenamthungo, imibhobho edibeneyo, kunye nemibhobho yesakhiwo kuye kwaqheleka kwiindawo zokugaya ukutya zaseAsia.

Ukusetyenziswa komthamo wokwenziwa kwemibhobho engenamthungo kufikelele malunga nama-75% phakathi kuMatshi, kwaye ukusilela kwee-odolo kwizibopho zangaphambi kweeholide kuncitshisiwe kakhulu.

Iindleko zezinto eziluhlaza—ingakumbi kwiibhilethi zentsimbi yekhabhoni kunye nezinto zokudibanisa—zihlale ziqinile kulo lonke ikota, zibonelela ngenkxaso yeendleko engaguqukiyo.

Iipateni zeMfuno

Icandelo leoyile negesi: Iiodolo ezizinzileyo zombhobho womgca we-API 5L, i-OCTG (iimpahla ze-Oyile zasemaphandleni), kunye ne-casing zigcine imfuno esisiseko.

Ukuveliswa koMbane: Iiprojekthi ezifuna iityhubhu zebhoyila kunye neetyhubhu zokutshintsha ubushushu zibe negalelo ekukhuleni komthamo weodolo ozinzileyo.

Iziseko zophuhliso: Imfuno ephakathi yeepayipi zokwakha, iipayipi zokufaka iintsika, kunye neepayipi zokufaka iintsika kwiimarike zaseAsia naseMbindi Mpuma.

Ukusebenza kwexabiso

Amaxabiso eepayipi zasekhaya ezingenamthungo eTshayina ahlala ngaphakathi kwebhendi encinci ye-RMB 4,200–4,280/ton kulo lonke iQembu lokuQala, ebonisa iziseko ezilinganayo zobonelelo kunye nemfuno.

Amaxabiso okuthumela ngaphandle e-ASTM A106 Grade B kunye ne-API 5L X52 ahlala eqinile, kwaye utshintsho olunyukayo ngamanye amaxesha lunxulumene nokuguquguquka kweendleko zokuthutha.

Ukujonga Phambili: Uqikelelo lweMarike yekota yesibini ka-2026

Njengoko imakethi itshintsha iye kwikota yesibini, iindlela ezininzi eziphambili ziya kutshintsha iimeko zokuthengwa kwempahla.

Imbonakalo yokubonelela

Umthamo weMveliso: Kulindeleke ukuba iiMill zisebenze kumthamo we-75-80% ukuya kutsho ku-Epreli, kwaye zinokuguquguquka ngokuxhomekeke ekuthathweni kwee-odolo.

Amanqanaba empahla: Iimpahla ezikhoyo ngoku zemibhobho engenamthungo eTshayina zimalunga neetoni ezingama-700,000, nto leyo ebonelela ngesikhuseli esifanelekileyo ngelixa kuthintelwa ukuthunyelwa kakhulu.

Indlela Yokwenza Izinto Eziluhlaza: Amaxabiso e-iron ore kunye namalahle okucola aqikelelwa ukuba aza kuhlala ehambelana nomgama, exhasa izakhiwo zeendleko ezizinzileyo zemibhobho yentsimbi yekhabhoni kunye nemibhobho yentsimbi ye-alloy.

Abaqhubi beemfuno zekota yesi-2

Ukuhlaziywa kweCandelo leMandla: Iiprojekthi zokuhlola ioyile negesi eziqhubekayo, ingakumbi kuMbindi Mpuma nakwiMbindi Asia, ziya kugcina imfuno ye-OCTG, umbhobho womgca, kunye ne-casing.

Ukukhawuleziswa kweZakhiwo: Iiprojekthi zokwakha ezixhaswa ngurhulumente kulo lonke elaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia nakwimimandla yeGulf kulindeleke ukuba zonyuse iimfuno zemibhobho yesakhiwo, iityhubhu zesikwere, kunye neendawo ezingenanto zixande.

Ukugcinwa kweZitishi zoMbane: Ukulungiswa okucwangcisiweyo kwezakhiwo ezishushu nezenyukliya kuya kukhuthaza ukucwangciswa okuqhubekayo kweetyhubhu zebhoyila kunye neetyhubhu zokutshintsha ubushushu.

Ukuthobela iMarike yaseYurophu: Ukuphunyezwa ngokupheleleyo kwe-CBAM (iCarbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) kuya kunceda ababoneleli abanakho ukubonelela ngemibhobho yentsimbi engenamthungo eqinisekisiweyo enekhabhoni ephantsi kunye nedatha ebhaliweyo yamandla aluhlaza kunye nomlinganiselo we-scrap.

Imbonakalo yeXabiso

Uzinzo Olulindelekileyo: Ngaphandle kokunyuka okukhulu kwezopolitiko, amaxabiso eepayipi angenamthungo kulindeleke ukuba ahlale ezinzile kwikota yesibini, kunye notshintsho oluncinci olunokubakho ngoMeyi oluqhutywa yimfuno yexesha lonyaka.

Ingxaki Yokuthutha: Amaxabiso okuthutha eenqanawa angabona ukunyuka okuphakathi njengoko imizila yokuthutha isenza iintlawulo ezongezelelweyo ngexesha lonyaka. Abathengi kufuneka baqwalasele oku kubalo lwamaxabiso apheleleyo.

Amacandelo eMarike ekufuneka ajongwe kwikota yesibini ka-2026

Iimveliso eziphambili zeCandelo le-Q2 Outlook

Ioyile kunye neGesiI-API 5L X52/X60/X65, OCTG, i-casing Imfuno eqhubekayo evela kwiinkqubo zokubhola ezisebenzayo

Ukuveliswa koMbaneI-ASTM A213 T11/T22, I-ASTM A335 P11/P22Ii-odolo ezizinzileyo ezivela kwimijikelo yolondolozo

UlwakhiwoI-EN 10210 S355J2H, EN 10219,iityhubhu zesikwereUkukhula okuphakathi okuvela kwiiprojekthi zeziseko zophuhliso

Iityhubhu ezilungelelanisiweyo zemizi-mveliso ezingenamthungo, iityhubhu zoomatshini Imfuno ezinzileyo evela kwicandelo lokuvelisa

Intsimbi Eluhlaza Imibhobho engenamthungo enekhabhoni ephantsi, i-EAF + amandla aluhlaza Umdla okhulayo kubathengi baseYurophu

Ukugxila kwizinto ezibalulekileyo: Amanqaku aphambili kwikota yesi-2 ka-2026

Abathengi abaceba iimfuno ze-Q2 kufuneka babeke phambili ezi nkcukacha zifunwa kakhulu:

Ingqwalasela yeXesha leNkokeli kwiSicelo seZixhobo

I-API 5L X52/X60/X65 Imibhobho yeoyile negesi iintsuku ezingama-35-45; imfuno ephezulu

I-ASTM A106 Ibanga B/C Inkonzo yobushushu obuphezulu iintsuku ezingama-30-40; ifumaneka ngokubanzi

I-ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91 Iibhoyila zokuvelisa umbane iintsuku ezingama-45-60; amanqanaba e-alloy afuna amaxesha amade okukhokela

I-ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Iindawo ezidlakazelayo iintsuku ezingama-40-50; intsimbi engagqwaliyo

Isakhiwo se-EN 10210 S355J2Hiindawo ezingenantoIintsuku ezingama-35-45; imfuno eyandayo

EN 10219Iindawo ezakhiwe ngokubanda Izakhelo zokwakha ziintsuku ezingama-30-40; ziyafumaneka lula

Iingcebiso zoBuchule bokuThenga kwikota yesiBini ka-2026

Njengoko i-Q1 iphela kunye ne-Q2 iodolo sele zenziwe, cinga ngoku kulandelayo:

Ukubekwa kwe-oda kwangaphambili: Kwiimfuno zekota yesi-2, ingakumbi imibhobho yentsimbi ye-alloy kunye nemibhobho emikhulu engenamthungo, faka ii-odolo kwiiveki ezimbini zokuqala zika-Epreli ukuze ufumane amathuba okuvelisa kwaye uphephe ulwandiso lwexesha lokunika i-oda.

Qinisekisa uXwebhu lweKhabhoni: Kwimithwalo eya eYurophu, qinisekisa ukuba ababoneleli banokubonelelaI-CBAM-idatha ye-carbon footprint ehambelanayo, kuquka izatifikethi zamandla aluhlaza kunye namaxwebhu omlinganiselo we-scrap. Ukuqinisekiswa kwangethuba kuthintela iingxaki zokuthobela umthetho ngomzuzu wokugqibela.

Ukucwangcisa izinto ezahlukeneyo: Njengoko uxinzelelo lweStrait of Hormuz luqhubeka, cinga ngezinye iindlela zokuhambisa imithwalo eya eGulf kwaye uqwalasele i-buffer enokubakho yeeveki ezi-2-3 kwiishedyuli zokuhambisa.

Valela Amaxabiso Kwangethuba: Nangona kulindeleke uzinzo lwamaxabiso, ukufumana iikowuteshini zenkampani ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli kunokukhusela naluphi na utshintsho oluphakathi kwekota oluqhutywa ziintshukumo zezinto eziluhlaza okanye iindleko zokuthutha impahla.

I-Sanonpipe: Iqabane Lakho kwikota yesi-2 ka-2026 nangaphaya kwayo

Njengomboneleli wenkonzo yombhobho wentsimbi onendawo enye, sikulungele ukuxhasa iimfuno zakho ze-Q2 ngezi zinto zilandelayo:

Uluhlu Olupheleleyo: Malunga neetoni ezingama-200,000 zeepayipi zentsimbi engenamthungo (ikhabhoni kunye ne-alloy), kunye neetoni ezili-10,000 zeepayipi ezidityanisiweyo, iityhubhu zesikwere/ezingxande, kunye neepayipi zentsimbi engenasici.

Amandla eKhabhoni aphantsi: Intsebenziswano neefektri ezibonelela ngamandla aluhlaza, umlinganiselo ophezulu wenkunkuma elahliweyo, kunye nemveliso ye-EAF, exhaswa yingxelo yedatha yekhabhoni ehambelana ne-CBAM.

Inkxaso yeNkonzo epheleleyo: Ukususela ekuqinisekisweni kwezinto eziluhlaza ukuya ekupakisheni, ekugqumeni nasekuthumeleni, siyenza lula inkqubo yakho yokubonelela.

Nxibelelana neqela lethu namhlanje ukuze uxoxe ngesicwangciso sakho sokuthenga sekota yesibini ka-2026, ucele amaxabiso angoku, okanye ufumane isikhokelo esithile malunga nokuhamba kwindlela etshintshayo yezopolitiko kunye nemithetho.