Mashi 26, 2026 - Ukuhlaziywa Kweviki Lokugcina kanye Nombono Wesu

Njengoba singena esontweni lokugcina likaMashi 2026, ipayipi lensimbi elingenamthungo lomhlaba wonke, ipayipi lensimbi elihlanganisiwe, kanye nemakethe yezingxenye ezingenalutho ezakhiweni imi endaweni ebalulekile yokuguquka. Ikota yokuqala iphetha ngemuva kokungezwani kwezepolitiki okuqhubekayo eMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nokusheshisa amalungiselelo ekota yesibili. Njengoba isimo seStrait of Hormuz singakaxazululwa kanye nezimakethe zamandla zisenkingeni, abathengi bahlela kabusha amasu okuthenga ezinyangeni ezizayo.

Isibuyekezo Sendawo Yezepolitiki: Ukungezwani Kwe-Strait of Hormuz Kuyaqhubeka

Ingxabano yezempi ehilela i-Iran, i-Israel, ne-United States iyaqhubeka nokuthonya ukuguquguquka kwezentengiselwano zomhlaba wonke njengoba ikota iphela.

Ukuphazamiseka Okuqhubekayo: I-Strait of Hormuz isalokhu iyindawo eyingozi kakhulu yokuvalwa kolwandle, lapho imikhumbi yemikhumbi igcina izindlela zokushintsha umzila kanye nezindleko ezengeziwe zemithwalo yemikhumbi edlula kulesi sifunda. Cishe u-20% wokuhweba ngamafutha emhlabeni wonke udlula kulo mzila, okugcina ingcindezi ephezulu ezindleleni zamandla.

Umthelela Wezokuthutha Zesifunda: Amazwe e-Gulf Cooperation Council—iSaudi Arabia, i-UAE, i-Iraq, i-Kuwait, i-Qatar, ne-Bahrain—ahlanganisa u-26.3% wokuthunyelwa kwepayipi okungenamthungo eShayina, ayaqhubeka nokubhekana nezikhathi zokuhola ezinde zamasonto ama-2-4 zokuthunyelwa kwensimbi engenayo.

Ukudluliswa Kwezindleko Zamandla: Amanani kawoyela aqhubekayo angaphezu kwama-$85 ngebhareli ngalinye agcina ingcindezi yezindleko ekukhiqizweni kwensimbi kagesi ye-arc furnace esebenzisa amandla amaningi, esekela amanani aqinile amapayipi ensimbi yekhabhoni, amapayipi ensimbi e-alloy, kanye namapayipi angenasici angenamthungo.

Isifinyezo Semakethe se-Q1 2026: Ikota Yoshintsho

Ikota yokuqala ka-2026 izokhunjulwa njengesikhathi sokulungiswa kabusha kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka kanye nokuguqulwa kwenqubomgomo.

Ukuvuselelwa Komkhiqizo Kuqediwe

Ngemva kokuphumula isikhathi eside soNyaka Omusha Wenyanga, ukukhiqizwa kwamapayipi angenamthungo, amapayipi ahlanganisiwe, kanye namapayipi esakhiwo kuye kwashintsha kwaba ngokwejwayelekile kuzo zonke izigayo zase-Asia.

Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okukhiqiza amapayipi angenamthungo kufinyelele cishe ku-75% maphakathi noMashi, kanti ama-oda asele emuva ezibophezelweni zangaphambi kweholide asuliwe kakhulu.

Izindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa—ikakhulukazi zezinsimbi zensimbi yekhabhoni kanye nezinto zokuhlanganisa—zihlale ziqinile kulo lonke ikota, zinikeza ukwesekwa kwezindleko okuqhubekayo.

Amaphethini Okufunwa

Umkhakha Kawoyela Negesi: Ama-oda aqinile epayipi lomugqa we-API 5L, i-OCTG (Izimpahla Ze-Oil Country Tubular), kanye ne-casing kugcine isidingo esiyisisekelo.

Ukukhiqizwa Kwamandla: Amaphrojekthi adinga amashubhu ebhoyila namashubhu okushintshanisa ukushisa anegalelo ekwandeni kokuhleleka okuzinzile.

Ingqalasizinda: Isidingo esimaphakathi samapayipi esakhiwo, amapayipi okufaka izinsimbi, kanye namapayipi okufaka izisekelo ezimakethe zase-Asia naseMpumalanga Ephakathi.

Ukusebenza Kwentengo

Amanani amapayipi angaphakathi angenamthungo eShayina ahlala ngaphakathi kwebhendi elincane lika-RMB 4,200–4,280/ton kulo lonke iQembu loku-1, okubonisa izisekelo ezilinganayo zokuhlinzekwa kwempahla.

Amanani okuthumela ngaphandle e-ASTM A106 Grade B kanye ne-API 5L X52 ahlala eqinile, kanti ngezinye izikhathi kukhuphuka izinguquko ezihlobene nokuguquguquka kwezindleko zokuthutha.

Ukubheka Phambili: Isibikezelo Semakethe sekota yesibili ka-2026

Njengoba imakethe ishintsha iye kwikota yesibili, izitayela eziningana ezibalulekile zizobumba izimo zokuthengwa kwezimpahla.

Umbono Wokunikezela

Amandla Okukhiqiza: Kulindeleke ukuthi izimboni zisebenze ngomthamo ongu-75-80% kuze kube ngu-Ephreli, futhi zikwazi ukuzivumelanisa nezimo ngokusekelwe ekuthathweni kwe-oda.

Amazinga Okufakwa Kwempahla: Impahla yamanje yomphakathi yamapayipi angenamthungo eShayina ingamathani angaba ngu-700,000, okunikeza isivikelo esifanele ngenkathi kugwema ukutholakala ngokweqile.

I-Raw Material Trajectory: Amanani e-iron ore kanye namalahle okupheka kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale ehambisana nobubanzi, esekela izakhiwo zezindleko ezizinzile zamapayipi ensimbi yekhabhoni kanye namapayipi ensimbi e-alloy.

Abashayeli Besidingo Sekota Yesibili

Ukuvuselelwa Komkhakha Wamandla: Amaphrojekthi okuhlola uwoyela negesi aqhubekayo, ikakhulukazi eMpumalanga Ephakathi nase-Asia Ephakathi, azoqhubeka nesidingo se-OCTG, ipayipi lomugqa, kanye ne-casing.

Ukusheshiswa Kwengqalasizinda: Amaphrojekthi okwakha asekelwa nguhulumeni kulo lonke elaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kanye nesifunda saseGulf kulindeleke ukuthi andise izidingo zamapayipi esakhiwo, amapayipi asikwele, kanye nezingxenye ezinezimbobo eziyisikwele.

Ukulungiswa Kwezitshalo Zikagesi: Ukuguqulwa okuhleliwe kwezikhungo zokushisa nezenuzi kuzoletha ama-oda azinzile amapayipi ebhoyila namapayipi okushintshanisa ukushisa.

Ukuthobela Imithetho Yemakethe YaseYurophu: Ukuqaliswa okugcwele kwe-CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) kuzovuna abahlinzeki abakwaziyo ukuhlinzeka ngamapayipi ensimbi angenamthungo aqinisekisiwe ane-carbon ephansi anedatha yamandla aluhlaza kanye nesilinganiso sezingcezu ezilahliwe.

Umbono Wentengo

Ukuqina Okulindelekile: Ngaphandle kokwenyuka okukhulu kwezepolitiki, amanani entengo yamapayipi angenamthungo kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale eqinile kuze kube yikota yesibili, kanye nokulungiswa okuphansi okungenzeka ngoMeyi okubangelwa yisidingo sesizini.

Isici Sokuthutha: Amanani okuthutha olwandle angase abone ukwenyuka okumaphakathi njengoba imigqa yokuthumela ifaka izindleko ezengeziwe zesizini ephezulu. Abathengi kufanele bacabangele lokhu ekubalweni kwezindleko ezifike emhlabeni.

Izigaba Zemakethe Okufanele Zibukwe ku-Q2 2026

Imikhiqizo Eyinhloko Yesigaba I-Q2 Outlook

Uwoyela negesiI-API 5L X52/I-X60/I-X65, OCTG, ikheshi Isidingo esiqhubekayo esivela ezinhlelweni zokubhoboza ezisebenzayo

Ukukhiqizwa KwamandlaI-ASTM A213 T11/T22, I-ASTM A335 P11/P22Ama-oda aqinile avela emijikelezweni yokulungisa

UkwakhiwaI-EN 10210 S355J2H, EN 10219,amashubhu asikweleUkukhula okumaphakathi okuvela kumaphrojekthi engqalasizinda

Amashubhu angenamthungo ezimbonini, amashubhu omshini Isidingo esizinzile esivela emkhakheni wokukhiqiza

Insimbi Eluhlaza Amapayipi angenamthungo anekhabhoni ephansi, i-EAF + amandla aluhlaza Ukwanda kwentshisekelo kubathengi baseYurophu

Ukugxila Kwezinto Ezibalulekile: Amabanga Ayisihluthulelo e-Q2 2026

Abathengi abahlela izidingo ze-Q2 kufanele babeke phambili lezi zincazelo ezifunwa kakhulu:

Ukucatshangelwa Kwesikhathi Sokuhola Isicelo Sebanga Lezinto Ezibalulekile

I-API 5L X52/X60/X65 Amapayipi kawoyela negesi izinsuku ezingu-35-45; isidingo esikhulu

I-ASTM A106 Ibanga B/C Isevisi yokushisa okuphezulu izinsuku ezingama-30-40; itholakala kabanzi

Ama-boiler e-ASTM A335 P11/P22/P91 akhiqiza ugesi izinsuku ezingama-45-60; amazinga e-alloy adinga izikhathi zokuhola ezinde

I-ASTM A312 TP304/TP316L Izindawo ezigqwalisayo izinsuku ezingama-40-50; insimbi engagqwali

Isakhiwo se-EN 10210 S355J2Hizingxenye ezingenaluthoIzinsuku ezingu-35-45; isidingo esikhulayo

I-EN 10219Izingxenye ezakhiwe ngokubandayo Uhlaka lokwakha izinsuku ezingama-30-40; lutholakala kalula

Izincomo Zokuthengwa Kwamasu Eziqondisiwe ze-Q2 2026

Njengoba sekuqediwe i-Q1 kanye nama-oda e-Q2, cabanga ngalokhu okulandelayo:

Ukubekwa Kwe-oda Ngaphambi Kwesikhathi: Ngezidingo ze-Q2, ikakhulukazi amapayipi ensimbi ahlanganisiwe namapayipi amakhulu angenamthungo, faka ama-oda zingakapheli amasonto amabili okuqala ka-Ephreli ukuze uvikele izikhala zokukhiqiza futhi ugweme ukwelulwa kwesikhathi sokuhola okungenzeka.

Qinisekisa Imibhalo Yekhabhoni: Ngokuthunyelwa okuya eYurophu, qiniseka ukuthi abahlinzeki bangakunikezaI-CBAM-idatha ye-carbon footprint ehambisana nomthetho, okuhlanganisa izitifiketi zamandla aluhlaza kanye nemibhalo yesilinganiso se-scrap. Ukuqinisekiswa kusenesikhathi kuvimbela izinkinga zokuthobela imithetho ngomzuzu wokugcina.

Ukuhlelwa Kokuhlela Okuhlukahlukene: Njengoba ukungezwani kwe-Strait of Hormuz kuqhubeka, cabanga ngezinketho zokuhambisa ezinye izimpahla eziya eGulf bese ucabangela i-buffer engaba khona yamasonto ama-2-3 yezinhlelo zokulethwa.

Vala Amanani Kusenesikhathi: Nakuba kulindeleke ukuthi intengo izinze, ukuthola izingcaphuno zenkampani ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli kungavikela kunoma yikuphi ukulungiswa kwaphakathi nekota okubangelwa ukunyakaza kwezinto zokusetshenziswa noma izindleko zokuthutha.

I-Sanonpipe: Umlingani Wakho we-Q2 2026 nangale kwalokho

Njengomhlinzeki wesevisi yamapayipi ensimbi anendawo eyodwa, sikulungele ukusekela izidingo zakho ze-Q2 ngalezi:

Isitoko Esiphelele: Cishe amathani angu-200,000 amapayipi ensimbi angenamthungo (ikhabhoni ne-alloy), kanye namathani angu-10,000 amapayipi ahlanganisiwe, amapayipi ayisikwele/angunxande, kanye namapayipi ensimbi engagqwali.

Amakhono Aphansi Ekhabhoni: Ubambiswano nezimboni ezinikeza amandla aluhlaza, izilinganiso eziphezulu ze-scrap, kanye nokukhiqizwa kwe-EAF, okusekelwa ukubika kwedatha yekhabhoni okuhambisana ne-CBAM.

Ukusekelwa Kwesevisi Egcwele: Kusukela ekuqinisekisweni kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kuya ekupakisheni, ekumbozeni nasekuthumeleni, senza lula uchungechunge lwakho lokuhlinzeka.

Xhumana nethimba lethu namuhla ukuze uxoxe ngesu lakho lokuthenga lekota yesibili ka-2026, ucele amanani amanje, noma uthole isiqondiso esithile sokuhamba ngendlela eshintshashintshayo yezwe kanye neyomthetho.