January 28, 2026 - Industry Update & Strategic Outlook for Q1

As the final days of January 2026 approach, the global seamless steel pipe and welded steel pipe market operates within a now-familiar yet critical annual pattern. The convergence of early Lunar New Year factory closures, the newly enforced export licensing system, and resilient underlying demand defines the immediate landscape. Success in Q1 procurement hinges on understanding these dynamics and planning with precision.

The Core Dynamic: Annual Extended Production Hiatus in Full Effect

The dominant market force is the widespread and extended manufacturing pause across East Asia.

Production Standstill: Most mills producing carbon steel pipes, alloy steel pipes, and hollow structural sections have been shut down since late January. This halt encompasses API 5L line pipe, ASTM A106 Grade B seamless tubes, and OCTG (Oil Country Tubular Goods).

Month-Long Gap: Consistent with annual trends, production of seamless pipes, welded pipes, and precision steel tubes is not expected to meaningfully restart until late February, with normal output flow resuming in early March. This creates a 4-5 week de facto supply gap.

Procurement Consequence: For buyers, this means that any steel pipe requirement for projects starting in Q1 that is not already in transit or at port is subject to significant delay. The spot market for large-diameter pipes, piling pipe, and scaffolding pipe is effectively frozen.

Policy Update: Export Licensing Adds Administrative Friction

The new Chinese export control policy, now in its initial operational phase, compounds the seasonal challenge.

Process Delays: The license application process for stainless steel seamless pipes (ASTM A312 TP316L), corrosion-resistant alloys, and even standard carbon steel pipes is experiencing slower processing times amidst the holiday period.

Documentation is Critical: For shipments that are moving, possessing flawless Mill Test Certificates (MTC), Origin Certificates, and the new export license is mandatory. Any discrepancy will cause customs holds.

Post-Holiday Planning: Buyers must account for this additional administrative lead time when planning for material to be produced and shipped after the holiday.

Q1 2026 Market Forecast: Stability Through Constraint

The outlook for the remainder of the quarter is shaped by the supply hiatus.

Supply-Driven Firmness: Prices for seamless steel pipes, welded steel pipes, and structural tubes are expected to remain firm through Q1 due to the constrained supply. A price collapse is highly unlikely.

Demand Sectors Await Restart: Underlying demand from oil and gas (for casing, tubing, line pipe), power generation (for boiler tubes, heat exchanger tubes), and infrastructure remains but is on hold, poised to drive the market upon the production restart.

Strategic Imperative: This cyclical event underscores the non-negotiable need for advanced procurement planning, especially for projects with firm Q2 start dates.

Announcing Our Expanded Portfolio: Welded Pipes & Structural Hollow Sections

In response to evolving global project specifications, we are pleased to formally launch our expanded range of fabricated steel products.

Welded Steel Pipes: We now supply a full spectrum of welded steel pipes for structural, mechanical, and conduit applications, complementing our seamless pipe expertise.

Square Tubes & Rectangular Hollow Sections (RHS): We offer high-quality hollow structural sections manufactured to international standards EN 10210 (for hot-finished sections) and EN 10219 (for cold-formed sections). These are ideal for construction, machinery, and architectural frameworks.

A Complete Solution: Our portfolio now provides a single source for seamless pressure pipes, welded structural pipes, and precision cold-formed sections, simplifying your steel tube and pipe sourcing.

Actionable Strategies for Buyers

Secure Post-Holiday Production Slots Now: If you have firm Q2 project requirements for ASTM A335 P11/P22 alloy tubes, EN 10219 S355J2H hollow sections, or API 5L X52/X60 pipe, engage with suppliers immediately to reserve early March manufacturing capacity.

Audit Your Q1 Pipeline: Confirm the status of all outstanding orders. For delayed items critical to project timelines, explore alternative solutions with your supplier.

Leverage Our Broadened Capabilities: Integrate our new welded pipe and structural hollow section products into your design and procurement plans for greater flexibility and value engineering.

Your Partner for Continuity and Choice

While the market navigates its annual pause and new regulations, we offer proactive planning and an expanded product set. We combine deep seamless pipe market knowledge with new capabilities in welded pipes and European standard sections, ensuring you have a reliable partner for both standard and specialized requirements.

Contact us today to discuss securing your post-holiday production allocation or to request technical specifications for our new welded steel pipe and EN 10210 / EN 10219 hollow section product lines.