Lipotili likuwunika mwayi, zovuta, ndi ziyembekezo za kutumiza mapaipi achitsulo ku China kupita ku India kuyambira 2024 mpaka 2025. Kukula kwachuma mwachangu ku India, makamaka ndalama zake zazikulu mu mphamvu, zomangamanga, ndi kupanga, kwapangitsa kuti pakhale kufunikira kwakukulu kwa mapaipi ake achitsulo. Monga wopanga mapaipi achitsulo wamkulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, China imapereka zabwino zazikulu pamtundu wa zinthu, mphamvu zopangira, ndi mtengo, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ikhale yogulitsa yayikulu pamsika waku India. Komabe, zopinga zamalonda, kukulira kwa mphamvu zopangira mkati mwa dziko ku India, komanso mpikisano wapadziko lonse lapansi zikubweretsa mavuto kwa ogulitsa aku China. Kutumiza mapaipi achitsulo ku China kupita ku India kukuyembekezeka kukhalabe ndi kukula kokhazikika pazaka ziwiri zikubwerazi, koma kuchuluka kwa kukula kungachepe, pamene mpikisano wamsika ukusintha kupita ku kusiyana kwa mtundu ndi ntchito.

1. Chidule cha Msika ndi Zoyendetsa

Chuma cha ku India ndi "Make in India" Initiative: GDP ya ku India ikupitilira kukula mofulumira, ndipo boma likulimbikitsa kwambiri "Make in India" ndi chitukuko cha zomangamanga, kuphatikizapo mafuta ndi gasi, magetsi (makamaka mphamvu ya kutentha ndi nyukiliya), mankhwala, magalimoto, ndi malo ogulitsa nyumba—zonsezi ndi mafakitale akuluakulu a mapaipi achitsulo.

Kufunika kwa Mphamvu Kokulira: India ndi dziko lachitatu padziko lonse lapansi lomwe limagwiritsa ntchito mafuta osakonzedwa. Kukulitsa mphamvu zake zoyeretsera mafuta komanso kumanga malo osungira mafuta ofunikira kumafuna mapaipi ambiri achitsulo (mongaP11, P22, P91ndiP92) yoyenera malo otentha kwambiri komanso opanikizika kwambiri. Kuphatikiza apo, mapulojekiti opanga magetsi pogwiritsa ntchito gasi komanso mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso amafunikanso mapaipi othandizira.

Ndalama Zoyendetsera Ntchito Zomangamanga: Ndalama zomwe boma limagwiritsa ntchito popereka madzi m'mizinda, kukonza zimbudzi, komanso kugawa gasi m'mizinda zipitiliza kukweza kufunika kwa mapaipi apaipi ndi mapaipi omangidwa.

Kusiyana kwa Mphamvu za M'nyumba: Ngakhale kuti mphamvu zopangira mapaipi achitsulo m'nyumba (monga SAIL, Jindal, ndi ISMT) zikuwonjezeka ku India, pali kusiyana pakati pa mitundu ya mapaipi achitsulo apamwamba kwambiri, ma specifications apadera, ndi mphamvu zazikulu zotumizira, zomwe zimafuna kudalira zinthu zochokera kunja.

2. Mavuto ndi Zoopsa Zazikulu

Zopinga Zamalonda: India nthawi zambiri imayambitsa kafukufuku wotsutsana ndi kutaya zinthu (AD) ndi msonkho wotsutsana ndi katundu (CVD) motsutsana ndi zinthu zachitsulo zaku China ndipo imayika mitengo yokwera. Izi zimapangitsa kuti ogulitsa aku China asamadziwe bwino zomwe zikuchitika. Mwachitsanzo, mitengo ya zinthu pa mapaipi ena achitsulo imatha kufika pa 30%.

Ndondomeko za Chitetezo ku India: Boma la India likufuna kuteteza mafakitale am'nyumba kudzera mu njira monga kukweza mitengo yolowera kunja, kukhazikitsa satifiketi yokakamiza ya BIS, ndikukhazikitsa pulogalamu ya Production-Linked Incentive (PLI). Izi zawonjezera mtengo ndi zovuta zolowera pamsika wa zinthu zaku China.

Mpikisano wa Mitengo ndi Kupanikizika kwa Mtengo: Kusinthasintha kwa mitengo ya zinthu zopangira (monga zinthu zopangira nickel, chromium, ndi molybdenum), mitengo ya katundu wa m'nyanja, ndi RMB kusinthana kwa ndalama zonse zimakhudza mpikisano wa mitengo wa zinthu zaku China.

Mpikisano Wapadziko Lonse: Opanga ku South Korea, Japan, ndi Europe amapikisananso ndi China pamsika wapamwamba. Kuphatikiza apo, mapangano amalonda aulere a India (FTAs) ndi mayiko monga UAE ndi Australia angapereke zabwino pamitengo ya zinthu zochokera kumayiko awa.

Kayendetsedwe ka Zinthu ndi Kupereka Zinthu: Zinthu zokhudzana ndi ndale za dziko ndi nkhawa zachitetezo m'misewu yotumizira katundu padziko lonse lapansi monga Red Sea Route zingayambitse nthawi yayitali yotumizira katundu komanso ndalama zambiri.

3. Malo Opikisana

Ogulitsa aku China: Mphamvu zawo zili mu unyolo wawo wonse wogulira zinthu, kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zingagwiritsidwe ntchito, kuthekera kosintha zinthu, komanso mitengo yopikisana. Makampani akuluakulu ndi monga Tianjin Steel Pipe (TPCO), Valin Steel, ndi Jiangsu Changbao Steel Pipe.

Ogulitsa aku India: Ubwino wawo uli mu ntchito zapakhomo, chitetezo ku zopinga zamalonda, komanso ubale wapamtima ndi makasitomala akunyumba. Komabe, kusonkhanitsa kwawo ukadaulo ndi mphamvu zopangira zinthu zapamwamba ndizochepa.

Ogulitsa Zinthu Zakunja: Makampani aku Japan ndi ku Europe (monga Tenaris ndi Vallourec) ali patsogolo paukadaulo pazinthu zopindulitsa kwambiri; Makampani aku Korea (monga SeAH Steel) amapikisana mwamphamvu ndi makampani aku China pamtengo ndi ntchito.

4. Malangizo a Njira Yotumizira Zinthu Kunja

Kusiyanitsa Zinthu: Yang'anani kwambiri mapaipi achitsulo chamtengo wapatali komanso chamtengo wapatali omwe ndi ovuta kupanga mdziko muno ku India, monga mapaipi a boiler apamwamba, mapaipi osweka mafuta, ndi mapaipi amagetsi a nyukiliya, kupewa mikangano yamitengo pazinthu zotsika mtengo komanso zogwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zonse.

Kumvetsetsa Kwakuya kwa Ndondomeko Yamalonda: Yang'anirani mosamala milandu yothetsera malonda yomwe yalengezedwa ndi Unduna wa Zamalonda ku India, gwiritsani ntchito njira zalamulo kuti muyankhe moyenera, ndikuyesetsa kupeza mitengo yotsika. Gawani molondola malamulo a misonkho kuti muwonetsetse kuti misonkho ikuvomerezedwa ndi malamulo a misonkho.

Limbikitsani Mgwirizano Wakumaloko: Ganizirani kukhazikitsa mgwirizano wa nthawi yayitali ndi ogulitsa katundu ochokera kunja, ogulitsa, kapena ogwiritsa ntchito odziwika bwino aku India, komanso kufufuza mwayi wokhazikitsa malo osungiramo katundu kapena malo opangira zinthu m'deralo kuti muwongolere magwiridwe antchito a unyolo wopereka katundu komanso momwe makasitomala amayankhira pa ntchito.

Konzani Chitsimikizo ndi Ubwino: Pezani ziphaso zofunikira pa khalidwe la malonda monga chiphaso cha India BIS, ndikuwonjezera chidaliro cha makasitomala kudzera mu ziphaso zapadziko lonse lapansi monga API ndi ISO.

Malonda ndi Ndalama Zosinthasintha: Perekani njira zolipirira zopikisana komanso zothetsera mavuto azachuma kuti mukope ogula aku India.

5. Chiyembekezo cha 2024-2025

Osalowererapo pa Chiyembekezo. Zinthu zomwe msika wa ku India ukufuna kwambiri zikupitirirabe kukhala zolimba, zomwe zikupereka maziko olimba otumizira kunja mapaipi achitsulo a alloy aku China.

Kuchuluka kwa katundu wotumizidwa kunja kukuyembekezeka kukhalabe kokhazikika, koma kukula kwa katundu kudzachepetsedwa ndi mfundo zamalonda. Popanda kuyika ziletso zatsopano zamalonda, kuchuluka kwa katundu wotumizidwa kunja kukuyembekezeka kukhalabe ndi mulingo womwe ulipo kapena kukwera pang'ono. Ngati mitengo yatsopano yokwera ikhazikitsidwa, katundu wotumizidwa kunja ukhoza kuchepa kwambiri pakanthawi kochepa.

Kusintha kwa Cholinga cha Mpikisano: Mpikisano udzasintha kuchoka pa mpikisano wamtengo wapatali kupita ku mpikisano wokwanira wa khalidwe la malonda, milingo yautumiki waukadaulo, kukhazikika kwa unyolo woperekera katundu, ndi chithandizo pambuyo pogulitsa.