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Steel prices before and after the Spring Festival: before the festival is not bearish, not bullish after the festival

2021 has passed and a New Year has begun.Looking back on the year, the steel market has had its ups and downs.In the first half of the year, the global economic recovery, the rapid growth of domestic real estate and fixed asset investment, driving the demand for steel, steel prices into the rising space, the price once hit a record high.In the middle of the year, there were repeated calls by senior officials to rein in commodity prices from rising too fast, followed by a sharp correction in commodities, led by steel.The domestic economy peaked in the second half of the year, market demand weakened, steel market prices gradually fell.

At present, a lot of old iron people are not satisfied with the performance of the steel market in December, of course, there are differences in the market view, that the rise did not rise enough, that the fall did not fall enough, whether it is spot, or futures, are in the area between the shock.In January, due to the early Spring Festival this year, except for New Year’s day and Spring Festival, there is not much time for effective trading in the market. In the face of shrinking demand, most of the time is caused by capital and emotion, so there will be more price without market.Especially in the middle of the logistics enterprises are on holiday, the actual trade fair will be more reduced.At that time, the meaning of the market is not the price, lies in the expectations after the festival and a variety of risk solutions.

Steel prices rose and then fell

For the annual performance of the steel market in 2021, analysts said that the steel market in 2021 benefited from the cycle of main rise and supply side disturbance, the whole year to fall, Yang after suppression, for steel enterprises is a bumper harvest, but trade circulation enterprises have to earn and lose, the overall is not good.

At the end of the market, steel companies are cautiously optimistic about the future.Valin Iron & Steel recently said that the company’s production and operation in the fourth quarter was at a normal level. In terms of plates, the demand for shipbuilding, wind power, automobiles and home appliances was good. The profit of shipbuilding board has maintained a good level since the beginning of this year, and it is expected to continue to maintain a good trend in the future, while the demand for construction machinery and heavy trucks was weak.In terms of long timber, due to the influence of real estate regulation policies, the demand is weak, but the most pessimistic period may have passed, and the demand for high construction Bridges remains stable.Seamless steel pipe demand downstream oil and gas industry demand is stable.

For the market trend of 2022, analysts said that the overall steel market next year is cautious, this round of short cycle top this year has been confirmed, 2022 in the cycle ebb tide and policy to hedge the big logic, steel prices must be next step.Since the Central Conference on Work and Economy, we can see that steady growth in 2022 is an unprecedented position, and the main head of the National Development and Reform Commission has even made it clear that “we will cautiously introduce policies and measures with a contractionary effect”.Based on this, the previously high market consensus of double supply and demand decline pattern may be difficult to appear, steel supply is expected to increase in 2022, the demand is stable with an increase, the overall pattern of oversupply.

Can the market rise after the New Year?

Enter January, market demand is weaker and weaker, the market is around the expectation, winter storage and capital game, there is no market is more and more obvious.At present, most of the winter storage steel policy thread pricing in 4400-4500 yuan interval, 450-600 higher than last year, the industry is expected to profit space is limited, but the steel policy protection attitude is also more resolute.The overall spot market will still be close to winter storage prices, January may have a little space for decline, but the extent will not be too large.After the festival, mainly see the demand, in February winter Olympics suppression, in March two sessions impact, according to the time and seasonal calculation, the real site to start in April, if the policy before the value, including infrastructure projects and some real estate projects, ready in advance, may be moved to late March.Subdued demand, which has been pent up since mid-to-late November, is expected to explode.

But why not get too bullish?It is also very simple, on the one hand, the absolute steel price is 500-600 yuan higher than the same period last year;On the other hand, the macro environment and economic situation are different from last year and even a few years ago. Next year’s economic growth is likely to be 5.2%-5.8%, slowing down and ensuring steady development.Steel demand is no longer the momentum of rapid and sustained growth in the past, and there may be structural differentiation in the downstream industry.The third aspect is policy restrictions. In 2021, the sequela of coal and mining boom is not over yet, and it will surge again. How to stabilize the economy, limited development of industrial manufacturing, and how to revitalize the real economy?We rarely see anything like the first quarter of 2021 or even the all-time high it reached in May.Within the range of reasonable, reasonable and legal, the meaning is nothing.

Therefore, the market before the Spring Festival is not too bearish, not too bullish after the Spring Festival, the year before the preparation of goods on the preparation point, not to lose but not to make a lot of money, is this state, the market need not think too much.

Post time: Jan-07-2022