Isifinyezo: UBoris Krasnozhenov we-Alfa Bank uthi ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezwe engqalasizinda kuzosekela izibikezelo ezingaguquki kakhulu, okuphakamisa ukukhula okufika ku-4%-5%.

I-China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute ilinganisela ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yaseShayina kungase kwehle ngo-0.7% kulo nyaka kusukela ngo-2019 kuye cishe ku-981 million mt. Ngonyaka odlule, i-think-tank ilinganisele ukuthi umkhiqizo wezwe ufike ku-988 million mt, okwenyuka ngo-6.5% ngonyaka.

Iqembu labacebisi uWood Mackenzie linethemba elincane, libikezela ukwenyuka ngo-1.2% komkhiqizo waseShayina.

Nokho, uKrasnozhenov ubona kokubili ukulinganisa njengokuqaphile ngokweqile.

Umkhiqizo wensimbi waseShayina ungase ukhuphuke ngo-4%-5% futhi udlule i-1 billion mt kulo nyaka, kusho umhlaziyi wemboni yensimbi oseMoscow, esekela isibikezelo sakhe ekutshalweni kwezimali kwezwe ezimpahleni ezingaguquki (i-FAI).

I-FAI yangonyaka odlule ibizokhulisa u-$8.38 trillion ngonyaka, noma cishe u-60% we-GDP yaseShayina. Lokhu kokugcina, okubiza u-$13.6 trillion ngo-2018, ngokwezilinganiso zeBhange Lomhlaba, kungadlula u-$14 trillion ngo-2019.

I-Asian Development Bank ilinganisela ukuthi intuthuko esifundeni ibiza u-$1.7 trillion ngonyaka, okuhlanganisa izindleko zokunciphisa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezimo. Kuyo yonke imali etshalwe ku-$26 trillion esabalele eminyakeni eyishumi nesigamu kuze kube ngu-2030, cishe u-$14.7 trillion wabelwe ugesi, u-$8.4 trillion wezokuthutha kanye no-$2.3 trillion wengqalasizinda yezokuxhumana, ngokusho kwebhange.

IShayina ithatha okungenani ingxenye yalesi sabelomali.

UKrasnozhenov we-Alfa Bank uphikise ngokuthi, nakuba ukusetshenziswa kwemali engqalasizinda kusalokhu kukhulu kangaka, ukulindela ukuthi ukwenziwa kwensimbi kwaseShayina kwehle kufike ku-1% ngeke kube okunembile.