1. Direct Impact: Limited Risk in the Iranian Market

Based on export structure data from the past five years, China’s steel pipe exports have a very low dependence on the Iranian market, making the direct impact of the war highly controllable.

Welded Pipes: In 2025, China’s total welded pipe exports peaked, but the volume destined for Iran was merely 7,610 tons, accounting for only 0.12% of the total. Data confirms that Iran is not a core market for Chinese welded pipes -

Seamless Pipes: Although China’s seamless pipe exports hit a record high of 6.28 million tons in 2025, exports to Iran showed a declining trend. In 2025, exports to Iran totaled 33,040 tons, representing just 0.53% of the total volume -

Even if demand in Iran halts due to the war, it poses no substantial threat to China’s overall steel pipe export volumes.

2. Indirect Impact: Logistics Crisis in the Core Gulf Markets

The real pressure from this conflict lies in the logistical disruption to countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait following the Strait of Hormuz blockage. These nations are primary destinations for Chinese steel pipes and rely heavily on the strait.

Welded Pipe Pressure: In 2025, Saudi Arabia and the UAE alone imported 679,300 tons of Chinese welded pipes, accounting for 11% of China’s total welded pipe exports. The shipping standstill directly risks delivery delays or contract defaults for these orders -

High Concentration of Seamless Pipes: Seamless pipes, essential for oil and gas extraction, are even more dependent on the Gulf market. In 2025, the six Gulf nations (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain) collectively imported 1.653 million tons of Chinese seamless pipes, representing 26.31% of China’s total exports. Over a quarter of the market share is now threatened by supply chain disruption -

Soaring Logistics Costs: Major shipping lines like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have announced diversions via the Cape of Good Hope or suspended bookings to the Middle East. Voyages have extended by 10-15 days, transportation costs have increased by over 30%, and war risk surcharges have risen sharply -

This directly compresses profit margins for exporters.

3. Future Export Outlook

Short-Term Pain: Shipment Blockages and Order Delays

In the immediate term, with key ports like Jebel Ali suspended or severely congested, Chinese steel pipe shipments will face significant obstacles -

It is estimated that monthly exports could be affected by approximately 1.16 million tons in the short term -

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for over three months, China’s traditional market share in the Middle East could be at risk.

Medium-Term Opportunities: Filling the Iranian Supply Gap

It is crucial to note that Iran itself is a major steel producer and exporter in the Middle East, with annual steel exports of about 11 million tons, of which roughly 64% are billets -

The war has halted Iranian production and exports, creating a significant supply gap in the region.

This presents a dual-edged opportunity for Chinese steel pipe and billet industries:

Filling the Void: Infrastructure demand in the Middle East (e.g., Saudi Vision 2030) remains strong. The absence of Iranian supplies may need to be filled by countries like China. If the strait issue eases, Chinese steel pipes, with their cost-performance advantage, could see a rebound in exports -

Logistical Adaptation: The UAE has ports outside the Strait of Hormuz (e.g., Fujairah) connected by rail to the interior. Alternative shipping routes via the Gulf of Oman could eventually support Chinese steel exports to the region -

Price Trends and Cost Push

On the cost side, high crude oil prices are driving up both production and shipping costs. With Chinese steel mills currently operating near the breakeven point, rising costs will provide strong support for steel pipe prices. Export quotations are highly likely to trend upward -

The direct impact of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on the steel pipe market is minimal, but the indirect logistical shock is substantial. The future export scenario will be characterized by "short-term disruption, medium-term opportunity." Seamless pipes will be more severely affected than welded pipes due to their high dependence on the Gulf market. For exporters, the immediate priority is to mitigate logistical risks, monitor the status of alternative ports (like Fujairah), and prepare for a prolonged period of high maritime costs.